Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 28/6/2018 12:10

Chart support at 1380, base of uptrend channel at 1310 approx.
(Weekly charts)

[mark4231] 28/6/2018 11:56

Alphabeta, thanks for your input. By multiplier do you mean that you estimate console sales to be 40% to 50% of the number of PC sales?

[alphabeta4] 28/6/2018 11:51

I'm back in at £13.60 having sold at £16.10. I was concerned that which the early sales were strong they dropped off at a faster rate than Planet Coaster so whilst it has a lead there was a risk that it wouldn't last.
I have Steamspy and the sales seem to now be settled at around 4k per day. Planet Coaster did the same 1/12-25/12/16 (ie 100k and that's probably a bit unfair for JWE as it's comparing to a Christmas month). FWIW I have a multiplier of 1.4-1.5x for console sales which I have calculated from review numbers to sales for PS4 games and then scaled across to xbox.
By my calculations on analyst revenue numbers and assumptions on other title sales (ie PC and ED) at the £13.50 price drop I have this needing 453k full price sales left to do across all formats over the remaining 11 months or more if on discount. Planet Coaster did c700k total sales including discount for the following 11 months and doesn't have my 1.4-1.5x multiplier. So really I'm looking at 300k full price on Steam or 600k half price. That looks pretty undemanding to me given the 4k current full price just on Steam.

[brahmsnliszt] 28/6/2018 11:26

added a few at 13.54

[endion] 28/6/2018 11:15

Watching level 2 is interesting sometimes. As an example, just 10 mins ago the bids were stacked up 7:1 at 13.45 and 13.55. When suddenly someone undercuts the ask and sold to all those bidders at the bid price, the price suddenly drops back down to 13.45 for ask price and the stack disappears.

[hpcg] 28/6/2018 11:10

Also lets not kid ourselves, people that sold at 1800 have done a lot better than those that didn't. In addition the equal number of people (not exactly that but you know what I mean) that bought at 1800 made a bad choice. We can be pretty sure that some of those minimised their losses, which contributes to the round trip momentum. How those decisions play out in the medium term is yet to be determined, and for that we can be sure it will be company profits which are the most significant factor.

[chartsworth] 28/6/2018 11:03

Cool, thanks Nimbo, no probs...onwards and upwards!

[nimbo1] 28/6/2018 10:52

Hi Chartsworth, i didn't mean it personally, probably just the annoying price move influencing my mood! I take it back anyway - its no business of mine when anyone presses the buy sell button.

HPCG thanks for that post. You are right, in this market evidence is need not speculation... so we await the next upswing in investor sentiment or hard figures.

[endion] 28/6/2018 10:52

Current level 2 is looking very strong on the bid. Around 7 times more bid than ask at current levels.

Thanks hpcg for your input, always appreciated.

[chartsworth] 28/6/2018 10:44

Hi Nimbo, if it's me you're referring to I'm only adding my input and recent thinking in the spirit of sharing.I'm not wetting myself but I sold half today to reduce my losses and risk which were both getting far too high for me. I'm losing money.I'll continue to hold half and keep a close watch on the share and enjoy the comments from the long termers, yours included...

[mark4231] 28/6/2018 10:33

Thanks hpcg, I knew you would come and give a calmer and more rational explanation. :-)

[endion] 28/6/2018 10:26

14.38% of shares were bought by companies on or after june 4th at prices far higher than these, including oppenhiemerfunds and sgkbb.

[hpcg] 28/6/2018 10:21

In this context the enthusiastic move up to 1800 makes no sense. I think the simplest reason is it looks expensive based on current market expectations for 18 and 19. These still have revenue of £68 million, which is 1.7 million £40 units. It goes without saying, at least for the people that post here regularly, that the operational gearing from additional units is absolutely enormous. Consensus here is 4 million units, which is a vast difference in expectations.

On the other hand all the price has done is move back to where it was at the beginning of May. So annoying to miss out on the round trip but for me at least temporary missed opportunity rather than much damage, though I have bought more on the way down so not zero damage.

The question for me is the right tactics. I have cash, and I have just about sold at higher prices in January so where to put in limit orders, and what multiple will the market determine is appropriate for whatever expectations are set at the next trading update?

[czeck] 28/6/2018 10:20

I had entered back in Aug 17 so not as old as some here and was ready to hold further but the dramatic drop or 'shaking off the tree' laughable theory as some like to call it here has broken my resolve. Took some profits at £14.50 and went elsewhere. Good luck to all holders!

[villarich] 28/6/2018 10:08

After adding some more this morning this is now up to 10% of my portfolio so I'm maxed out risk wise

[endion] 28/6/2018 10:05

Agreed with all.

The extent of this dip is completely unjustified from a fundamental stand point. Shaking off all the weak investors though so there is a silver lining!

[mark4231] 28/6/2018 10:03

Elite: Dangerous and Planet Coaster still seem to be providing significant income despite both being released some time ago. OK, not going to be as much as JWE contributes but still significant. With the company moving to one big release a year then the lumpiness in revenue should be reduced.

[nimbo1] 28/6/2018 10:03

Agreed villarich - I’m here for next 5 years at least by which time they’ll be 8 titles plus being serviced with dlc. It’s a brilliant long term hold from this level or from however low this dip takes us.

[villarich] 28/6/2018 10:00

I'm in it for the long term. I think the revenues from JWE will be stellar. My only concern at this stage is how they can keep revenues up and not be reliant on one blockbuster franchise. That said those fears are allayed by the fact that the games industry nowadays is all about DLC and games that evolve to generate extra income over and above the initial purchase. I'm happy with FDEV's plans for this on JWE, ED and PC. My fears will be further allayed when the new franchise is announced :-)

[endion] 28/6/2018 09:52

Been a spike on visitor numbers to my site the past day or two. Lets hope anyone buying now is in it for the long term and not just to ride a short wave.

[villarich] 28/6/2018 09:40

If the directors bought at this level then I'm a buyer too

[makw61] 28/6/2018 09:38

Bought a few more; fundamentals look good here.

[nimbo1] 28/6/2018 09:36

I’ve bought more - fingers crossed