Flowgroup Plc Share Discussion Threads

[staverly] 17/6/2015 17:00

GW: Presumably you didn't get see/hear RNS before the market opened, otherwise i imagine you would have cancelled your orders. Which is the problem i alluded to.

[grandwood] 17/6/2015 16:46

So the ECJ ruling has wide ranging impact.....



Presumably the "micro-combi" [sic] refers to what Flow (and others) offer.

I was going to post my predictions earlier today about impact of this latest news...

* Director buys
* Increase in FIT payments (to offset loss of VAT incentive) by EoY

Obviously, too late to post about the first one (and why would you believe that was indeed my prediction?) but I stand by the second.

[grandwood] 17/6/2015 16:37

This is what I use....

[grandwood] 17/6/2015 15:08

The "trailing stop" was a buy transaction only so I still hold the shares purchased at 15p, higher than the current share price (and what TS paid today!) But lower than circa 26p I might have paid if the offer had spiked up before the news broke.

My "top end limit" comment basically means I set a trailing band so, for a buy order, the price has to spike up by at least the lower amount but no more than the higher amount to execute. So price (band) offset (from trough) is guaranteed whereas execution is not. The upside of setting an upper limit to the band is that it doesn't execute for transient spies in the offer, either due to MMs playing with spreads or overbuying on seemingly positive news. The downside is that I may miss out on buying into a real share price advance driven by sustainable change in circumstances of the company.

And to be clear, I am not recommending this type of trading for any particular share or trade; you need to talk to someone who knows what they are talking about to get reliable advice on that!

[staverly] 17/6/2015 14:17

GW - I'm glad whatever you did worked out but maybe we're talking at cross purposes as you seem to be saying that your order on Monday got filled and you were taken out in the same afternoon with a small loss. I was hoping you might throw some light on an effective limit order strategy. Since our exchange i have had a long talk with a seasoned dealer who confirms my worries that limit orders are a potential wrecking ball in the event of a profits warning.

BTW: What do you mean by: "always put a top end limit to avoid being caught by totally crazy changes to the spread or overreaction to favorable news", and i don't follow "notwithstanding that the price I paid is still higher than the current SP!".

[grandwood] 17/6/2015 11:36

Staverly, I have also been burnt before and normally I would only use a trailing order (either way) on large liquid shares; otherwise there is risk to get caught out by MMs widening the spread for a short time, especially at start and end of trading day. However, I've found in the past that isn't such a problem with Flow and since I don't get to watch the market like a hawk all day long I find it useful sometimes to let the broker do it for me!

In this case, I thought (on monday - b4 the kick in the teeth from the ECJ) that 25p was a decent entry point for Flow but with the lack of news was worried (like others on here) that the downward trend might continue. So I put the order in monday afternoon when the offer was 25p and with a trail of something like 1.15-1.85p. I try to avoid setting the values to multiples of the normal tick size for a particular share and always put a top end limit to avoid being caught by totally crazy changes to the spread or overreaction to favorable news.

I just got lucky this time, notwithstanding that the price I paid is still higher than the current SP! If the ECJ news came a week later I might have been caught out by some share price volatility in the mid 20s!

[staverly] 17/6/2015 11:11

Grandwood: I once had a large chunk taken out of my backside using a limit buy - you gotta be careful with them! In respect of liquidity, yesterday's TMF tautological article seemed to miss a key issue (so what's new): namely how their current negotiation of energy trading collateral arrangement plays out (see note 5 of last shareholder circular). FWIW i don't fancy small scale energy providers; without VI of the boiler it will just be a perennial drain of cash.

I'd be interested to learn more about how you use a TO to get out of jail.
Happy to provide an email address if the idea doesn't offend.

[grandwood] 17/6/2015 10:29

larry/staverly, I agree; there is something else going on with the product or business model beyond the ECJ ruling. And if that's true, it is disappointing that the BoD are using the ruling as an excuse for this profit warning. Guess it also explains why no director buys post placing!

On the plus side, the recent placing gives the company plenty of time to iron out these issues. And contrary to what some on here are saying and also the MF article (more shoddy journalism!), they will not need further equity in the short term.

Bad news for me personally was a buy order I placed on Monday when the share price was around 25p.....the good news is that I used a trailing order which followed the share price down and only executed on the bounce back to 15p yesterday. Thankful for small mercies! That purchase turned out to be my first below my existing average price which now stands around 20p.

I'm gonna watch and see what happens with this one over the next few months...particularly how the BoD responds to these events.

[melody9999] 16/6/2015 23:37

cyberbub - you could buy some ENTU - unaffected by the VAT issue, and install the FLOW product as a nice add-on rather than as a core product. Nice divi too.

[staverly] 16/6/2015 22:01

Larry335 16 Jun'15 - 14:53 - 175 of 183

Examining the situation from a counterfactual angle: let's imagine that the original launch had actually gone to plan until the recent ECJ ruling. I seriously doubt management would have suspended the sales pending UK government (UKG)clarity. Until the UKG adopt this ruling (they may never) Flow could carry on business as usual. I also *heard from a tier one trade source today that ECJ has given the UKG until March '16 to implement the ruling - seven months! And if the UKG does acquiesce to Brussels then an equivalent quid pro quo presumably will be substituted in a timely fashion. In other words i agree with your prognosis that there are technical issues with the boiler and this is a smokescreen. All in all very disappointing. Of course the biggest fear is that someone (Jabil?) will acquire the IP within the next 12-18 months at a knock down price and all of us who got burnt badly won't have that chance to get their money back. *DYOR

[zengas] 16/6/2015 19:36

You're way too slow Neftanikoff. Better still what have you touched that has done well or not ? When Griffiths sold, I followed suit with an overall 70% profit selling in the 40s and the last batch at 32p. Last posted here 11th Dec and 11th Jan - almost 5-6 months ago. Not a question of who invests in what company. A poster doesn't make or break a company.


To those still holding -

Flow still has the Energy supply side which was on 2 different past acquisition deals were worth in the region of $275/customer but they still need to grow the numbers. I argued at the time that they should have kept growing this rather than remaining at the 50-55k customer level. They changed tact again and plan to grow this base to 800,000 customers in the next 3 years (RNS 26/5/2015). 'If' they achieve that it could be worth circa 3X current m/cap on past acquisition deals based on a value of $275/customer. I'm going to take a look once the next numbers on this are out (6 months+).

[neftanikoff] 16/6/2015 19:00

anything that ZENGAS touches is bound to end in failure

[fox you] 16/6/2015 17:30

IF MUGS FEEL THE share price IS CHEAP NOW AS THYE WILL DO

READ THIS, FROM FLOW GROUP ITSELF TODAY - LOL
====================

==================


KEY RISKS
 Adoption of Flow’s innovative new technology could TAKE LONGER and COST MORE than
originally thought.
 Another recession could push back the time line to reach breakeven.
 The Feed in Tariffs (or 'generation credits') - which presently only apply for the first
30,000 installations - could be cut or even withdrawn by authorities. We reckon this is
unlikely though in the short term, given the product’s environmental and peak-loading
benefits for the national grid.
 Other regulatory/tax/fiscal changes.
 Execution risk of manufacturing, delivering, installing and servicing a significant step-up
in volumes.
 Flow is relatively small and could get squeezed by the large traditional boiler
manufacturers (eg Worcester Bosch, Vaillant and DBR Thermea).
 Technological obsolescence whereby the microCHP boiler ultimately becomes
superseded by a new scientific discovery, such as fuel cells (Re Ceres Power)

[fox you] 16/6/2015 17:22

DIGEST FROM FLOW GROUP = THANK THE LORD I STEERED CLEAR
=====================

Key risks
 Adoption of Flow’s innovative new technology could take longer and cost more than
originally thought.
 Another recession could push back the time line to reach breakeven.
 The Feed in Tariffs (or 'generation credits') - which presently only apply for the first
30,000 installations - could be cut or even withdrawn by authorities. We reckon this is
unlikely though in the short term, given the product’s environmental and peak-loading
benefits for the national grid.
 Other regulatory/tax/fiscal changes.
 Execution risk of manufacturing, delivering, installing and servicing a significant step-up
in volumes.
 Flow is relatively small and could get squeezed by the large traditional boiler
manufacturers (eg Worcester Bosch, Vaillant and DBR Thermea).
 Technological obsolescence whereby the microCHP boiler ultimately becomes
superseded by a new scientific discovery, such as fuel cells (Re Ceres Power)

[fox you] 16/6/2015 17:19

LOL

flowgroup (LSE: FLOW) is down 37% today at the time of writing: its latest trading update, which was released today, did not go down well with investors. This is unlikely to be an opportunity to buy is shares on the cheap, however — and here’s why.

What’s Going On?
The UK group
, which develops and sells alternative energy products
, announced today
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX“a substantial reduction in the expected number of boiler installations in 2015″.XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX = LOL - LOL - LOL - LOL

“The European Court of Justice ruled on 4 June that the UK’s reduced 5%…

[fox you] 16/6/2015 17:04

ONLY THE OTHER DAY - LOL

===================

QUOTE


cyberbub 5 Jun'15 - 08:37 - 3284 of 3298 1 0

Anything above 27p this morning is a buy...
==============


WHAT A LOL

[fox you] 16/6/2015 17:02

TBH, EVEN I DID NOT EXPECT THIS - LOL - ROFL

LOL

THANK THE LORD, LUCK ESCPAE FOR ME AS I WAS CONSIDERING A PUT BELOW 20P -LOL

WITH THIS RULING AND NO HOT WATER RAD - INSTALLATIONS AT 1800 - I MAY BUY IN AT 5P

LOL

[brummy_git] 16/6/2015 16:28

New research out from Equity development this morning.

hxxp://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/doc/1362.pdf

[the stigologist] 16/6/2015 16:21

MUG PUNTERS like Cybermug were warned these guys are serial failures

only got yourself to blame Cybermug

[the stigologist] 16/6/2015 16:11

cybermug needs a brain and viagra

[thailand] 16/6/2015 16:05

That chart needs Viagra.

[cyberbub] 16/6/2015 15:58

At least a couple of my other large holdings, AFRI and IOF, are doing a bit better today... and I am 100% up on VAST also so far... so it could be worse...Good luck to all genuine investors in FLOW... I think it will come good eventually, but with a substantial delay now...Reading between the lines like Larry, I think minor technical niggles may be behind the failure to get any news on the international sales front also... indeed perhaps it was the "biggest energy company in the world" who may have discovered any niggles??NAI

[cyberbub] 16/6/2015 15:51

Well I have regretfully sold half my holding, at a 25% loss. Lesson learned hopefully. Happy to keep half for the long term, but splitting my risk and will look for another oppprtunity. Anyone got any ideas?? :-)