Flowgroup Plc Share Discussion Threads

[larry335] 27/5/2015 16:57

staverly
I really don't agree at all that developing the system boiler first was the wrong decision.
A combi needs a much bigger heat exchanger for instantaneous water heating.
Space constraints are tighter and the typical combi user uses less energy and heats water over a shorter time ...less electricity generated for equivalent hot water use as a system boiler.
The system boiler needs much less power/heat exchanger, is smaller size, and the pay back from the system boiler will be quicker than a combi of the same price.
I can't believe that if they had gone for a combi that they would have by now been selling a combi at a price suitable for the combi boiler market and anyway the estimated payback would be much more than 5 years even if they had a lower sale price.
No, no way did they do that wrong. They wouldn't have any product at all now if they had gone the combi route.

If they had been able to start installations of the system boiler in March/April without raising cash (or raising less cash) that would have been better so yes, so much dilution was unexpected (you expected none) and while the cash raised hopefully will go to good use it would have been much better if they could have done it later at a much higher share price.
e.g. Jabil investing at 40p a share would also have been ok wouldn't it? ;-)

I think they planned things correctly but due to the scroll issue (that delay has shifted everything about 6 months), these cert delays and I guess some pressure from the possible future partners they needed more cash to keep things going.

GLAH

[cyberbub] 27/5/2015 14:07

Seemingly a lot of selling again... sigh...

[larry335] 27/5/2015 09:50

Two negatives I guess since January:
1) Unexpected degree of dilution
2) The delay of 2/3/4 months to first installations. This doesn't seem that much but installing in March/April would have given them a good 6/7 months to get feedback on the installed product through the non-critical summer.
Now they may only get a few months of operation before winter when they will really need to be working with no hitches...

[larry335] 27/5/2015 09:35

grandwood
I don't know. I would not have expected 5 but I guess Jabil would have the quality system, resource and facilities to do the testing so they could very well have proposed 4.
I don't know why it's taking so long. Possibly they have been making modifications and needed to repeat tests or something like that...I'm only guessing.

[grandwood] 27/5/2015 09:28

Larry, do you think section 4 or 5 apply to the flow boiler? I.e. testing has been undertaken at the Jabil site and the MCS folks need to approve the facilities/process used.

[larry335] 27/5/2015 09:22

I've posted reference to this previously but I think it is still relevant.

MCS-011




and the boiler is heat led mCHP so MCS-014

[staverly] 27/5/2015 01:33

On the 3 Feb, 2015 I posted: At £82m m/c i can't think of a better investment opportunity on LSE. Unforeseen catastrophe aside, i would be surprised, no make that amazed, if share price didn't start with a one before the end of this May ... that's a 1xxp not 1xp …

Cyberbub, this is a game of probabilities and yesterday we got thrown a curved ball; nothing to do with 2014 financial performance but TS admission that no boilers have been installed (nor sold presumably) to date, that's over six months after the first boiler rolled off the production line.

FWIW the rosy update in Febraury: “We are pleased with our progress so far and we will issue further updates as we move forward" followed by their March trading statement, released over seven weeks after the January launch which confirmed: “The sales and marketing campaign for the Flow boiler is now live following the launch of the boiler in January 2015 … The campaign is progressing to plan” led me to reasonably think that it was business as usual. Even Cantor’s initiation note published on 30th April which stated “the Flow boiler is fully commercial and being manufactured …” was gratuitously flawed unless this teething problem occurred later which i doubt. The fact that the promised April newsletter was never published is, with hindsight, a clear signpost that things were amiss.

As I alluded to this morning, the story is still intact. I was dismayed (like you?) by the captions listed under “post year end highlights” in this mornings report. And amazed to find that Flow Energy was the subject of opening paragraph in the outlook statement. I can’t imagine they’ll be much institutional interest on the back of all this dissemblance but the next update could set everything right. Let’s hope.

[cyberbub] 27/5/2015 00:15

Well what did people expect? We knew there would be a substantial loss. We have had a short delay in deployment of the boilers. Everything else is on track more or less, and the company has raised enough money to bring combis to market and close international deals (yes I agree the silence on the Euro testing needs to be broken). TS still has his 150p options and I see no reason why he wouldn't get them in the next couple of years, particularly if we bring combis to market and get a Euro contract... USA would be icing on the cake. So yes I suppose short termers selling out. If I had some spare cash I would see this as more like a top up opportunity, though I recognise that it might drop a bit further.GLA NAI

[staverly] 27/5/2015 00:04

1fox1: Appreciate your support on what's been a rotten day. I am just drafting a reply. Hope you're managing the pain ok!

[1fox1] 26/5/2015 23:57

cyberbub 26 May'15 - 23:05 - 109 of 109 0 0

Staverley, as I recall a few weeks back you were very bullish and suggesting that we would be pushing 100p by May. What's changed your mind, out of interest?

cyber re your question above.... How about today's statement?

[cyberbub] 26/5/2015 23:05

Staverley, as I recall a few weeks back you were very bullish and suggesting that we would be pushing 100p by May. What's changed your mind, out of interest?

[fox you] 26/5/2015 17:42

Days are getting warmer - how much eletric do you fink the boiler will produce?

Any predictions re SP?

Fox You

[staverly] 26/5/2015 11:39

Cyberbub: Well we will find out soon, when we start to see installation numbers over the summer... they will show up in Govt figures so the company can't hide them...

Bear in mind their hoped for MCS cert. is still outstanding so until then Flow's contribution won't be included. You should also note that, as the company is the beneficiary (not the householder buying the boiler), there is less pressure to tick this important box.

[cyberbub] 26/5/2015 11:15

Well we will find out soon, when we start to see installation numbers over the summer... they will show up in Govt figures so the company can't hide them...The quality of the management, partners and of course product mean that I still remain very confident medium/long-term, but am kicking myself at not selling when the drop started from the upper 40s... sigh... wiser people than me did just that...GLA

[1fox1] 26/5/2015 11:06

Well we'll have to wait and see Larry. One thing's for sure judging by the share price the market doesn't like today's statement either. I would have thought the recent 28.5p share offer would have put a floor under the price but not at all. It's about time Stiff started to deliver instead of giving us all a lot of hot air and promises.

[larry335] 26/5/2015 10:56

1fox1
I guess there is nothing they can say about trials directly. But Flow have just raised over £20m and one of the listed reasons is early entry into the EU market.
So I imagine any testing result wasn't completely negative.
When products are on trial, very rarely do the testing company say "yes, perfect".
Reading between the lines, changes are needed, but also I think these other companies will want to see the UK boilers installed first...

[1fox1] 26/5/2015 10:40

I understand what you're saying Larry but there's been a lot said of this "big European energy company" trials To me it's all gone a bit quiet. Today's statement comes across to me has a load of company speak with no real substance. The only thing that is giving me confidence is the Jabil investment. Today's wishy washy statement certainly doesn't. Good luck all

[blah blah] 26/5/2015 10:38

I do accept there hasn't been much to get excited about here lately. If they are going to deliver what they expect then that will change over the next few weeks and months, and that will generate buying interest and momentum. That's the theory, let's see how it compares to reality, but until now the company has delivered well against its promises.

[larry335] 26/5/2015 10:29

guys investor focus has been a little bit too much on sales figures and these US/EU deals.
You can't sell what you don't have, no matter how many orders are taken and no matter how many agreements are signed.
Qualifying production lines, type testing, accreditations for claiming FIT...these all take time and the processes could only start from the time the first boiler came off the line (Nov 2014).
They also seem to have been changing/optimizing some stuff (scroll assembly and probably other things).

[staverly] 26/5/2015 10:14

The story is still in tact but the watery outlook is disappointing. By the end of next month the picture should be considerably clearer. I certainly won't be buying anymore until then.

[1fox1] 26/5/2015 10:11

Sorry guys but I can't help feeling disappointed with these results. No real news re the European/US testing. Only churning out old news. They keep spouting on about 2015 being a game changer? Well here we are six months into it. Let's see what the next six months bring. Disappointing statement from a so called growth company.

[larry335] 26/5/2015 10:06

cyber
I think this is also new info: "As a late addition to this process we took the long-term view that Jabil should also build the scroll assembly, requiring additional work at this stage, but strategically the right decision."

This may explain delay in CE cert and so also MCS accreditation.

[brummy_git] 26/5/2015 08:50

New research note from Equity Development

hxxp://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/doc/1357.pdf