Flowgroup Plc Share Discussion Threads

[larry335] 01/4/2015 16:44

1fox1
Already fully loaded again. Hopefully, I recovered my gonads just in time...

[mesquida] 01/4/2015 16:43

Surprised that FoxYou has not posted yet - perhaps he got kept in after school !

[nw99] 01/4/2015 16:30

Chart looks good for 50p plus

[nw99] 01/4/2015 16:00

Go with the flow buy

[1fox1] 01/4/2015 15:47

Snap, crackle n POP!!

[1fox1] 01/4/2015 15:37

Chart could be turning upwards from here? Breakthrough 30p very positive. Good entry/top up point imo.

[1fox1] 01/4/2015 15:35

Chart could be turning upwards from here? Breakthrough 30p very positive. Good entry/top up point imo.

[uppompeii] 01/4/2015 14:03

Well timed nw99

[nw99] 01/4/2015 12:07

Looking good on level 2

[nw99] 01/4/2015 10:48

Grabbed a few more here

[grandwood] 01/4/2015 10:25

thanks larry for the clarification; I did indeed mean "customer accounts". For the 15k boiler sales a large chunk are likely to go to existing customers; assume the 10k "interested" parties in the original soft launch were mostly existing customers. If we assume 50% are new dual-fuel customers then that's 15k accounts as you say which takes us over 80k accounts; another 20k shouldn't be difficult to attract in the switching market assuming the tariff is a competitive as they say.

[nw99] 01/4/2015 09:10

Just picked some up here good value

[fox you] 31/3/2015 19:40

LOL

Bigger lol, look at the SP

Fox You

[jon123] 31/3/2015 13:31

if ur a shareholder u won't mind paying the full wack lol

[mtness2] 31/3/2015 13:22

How about reduced gas/elec rates for shareholders ?

[larry335] 31/3/2015 12:50

grandwood
As I understand it, the total of 66,000 customer accounts come from about 40,000 actual customers (most dual fuel). So I guess you mean 100k customer accounts...
Existing annualized revenue is about £50m from 66,000 accounts.
100k actual customers would give annualized revenue of about £120m (average dual fuel bill is about £1200)
If they hit your boiler sales target, that is 15,000 dual fuel customers right there...and by definition of suitability for the boiler, they will be higher than average energy users (i.e. existing annual payment greater than £1200).
e.g. assume the 15,000 boiler customers existing bill is £1800...that is additional £27m annual revenue just from the energy supply of these new boiler customers.

[grandwood] 31/3/2015 11:11

If they can get close to 100k total customers by H2, and I don't see why that wouldn't be possible, then their annualised revenue from supply alone will be around GBP85m. Add another GBP50m+ from boiler sales (15k units) and we're looking at revenue of double current market cap!

Assuming 10% margin on supply and 15% on boilers then annual gross profit will come in around GBP16m. That's before anything from battery, US/europe boilers and for only 15k units per year!

I am of course ignoring future rebates to boiler customers (anyone know if/how they will account for these in 2015?) but I would expect these to be gradually rolled back over next 12 months as take up increases and unit cost comes down. So I wouldn't expect to have any additional financial incentive (over and above innate energy saving potential) offered to new boiler customers from H2 next year.

These guys penciled in less than 70k energy customers by year end....



Do they need to update their revenue and profit figures based on news today? Is breakeven possible by FY 2015 with these new figures? Regardless, the extra short term inflows are likely to help the cash burn leading up to breakeven.

Or do the existing customers switching to the new tariff wipe out the gains from the new customers signing up?

[grandwood] 31/3/2015 10:50

They're basically doing the same thing they have for last couple of years....getting some new customers on board in time for the low usage months to increase short term cash flow due to the favorable spread during the summer between fixed DD payments and variable energy requirements. Difference this time is they get to lock in some very cheap wholesale prices for next 12 months.

Will be interesting to see if the new tariff is also available to boiler customers. I suspect not since flow will need higher margin to cover the 5 year rebate although that's still achievable by undercutting the big six.

Also, I suspect many other suppliers will be reluctant to make any moves so close to the election so Flow should get a good shot at moving up the best buy tables.

[nw99] 31/3/2015 07:52

Good news this morning

[nw99] 31/3/2015 07:12

Wow Flow Energy originally entered the energy market in 2013. It has attracted 66,000 customer accounts since launch and its current customer base generated £33m revenue in 2014.

[cyberbub] 30/3/2015 16:42

Toldja... sigh...

[cyberbub] 30/3/2015 12:42

There always seems to be quite a bit of trading when we dip below 30p... support at these levels perhaps? Touch wood... I have probably jinxed it now...

[uppompeii] 29/3/2015 12:44

Just enjoyed a hot shower from my system boiler which apparently doesn't heat water. Fortunately I have room for a tank to store this non existent hot water, that means I can run many hot taps at the same time instead of a trickle that a combi would deliver. The system is rather efficient, with pressurised delivery from a large tank that has never run dry and is piping hot days after it was warmed. Also the heating is on - and its not winter anymore. Wow who would have thought?

Very pleased with the sp, it is more than double my initial purchase and, after trading, my crystallized profits more than cover my remaining investment. However I recognised early on this was an AIM share, with high risk and cut my cloth accordingly. A poster seems to dwell too much on their own personal circumstances rather than looking at the bigger picture that the company has clearly set out.

[fox you] 29/3/2015 11:41

The flaws remian.

The 1800 pounds to install is a massive flaw. You will all be aware that for hundreds less, you vcan have a good/branded combi boiler supplied and fitted for a lot less and it will supply HOT WATER as well as heating.

Another massive flaw in the Flow boiler, only produces eletric with the heating on at a realtively high setting to get the best out of it - so what about the warmer weather we have already had and the warmer months - will you be sweltering and wasting money to run the heating to get a bit of eletric

FLAW - NO INSTANT HOT WATER - FACT

Your choice friends but just take a look at the SP

Fox You

[grandwood] 28/3/2015 21:17

"...we find a consistently high level of appeal for micro-CHP (60%-70%) – and a sizeable opportunity (a few 100,000s annual sales combined) for a ‘low cost’ micro-CHP product – e.g. one that costs only €/£2,000 more to install than a condensing gas boiler."

"However, that’s not to say there won’t be a market for lower cost, engine-based micro-CHP products, whose heat to power ratio may be a better fit with older, less well-insulated homes which have a higher heat demand."