Easyjet Share Discussion Threads

[sapphireblue1] 14/3/2024 12:55

I don't care if nobody reads. I am not at all desperate. You seem desperate for it to go down. I am merely pointing out why it's wrong.
I have got 3 PMs for off board discussion just this morning so I am happy to continue.
If you don't like it filter me.
In the meantime I view the opportunity

[noramping] 14/3/2024 12:28

Sapphire, your trying hard , you seem desperate.

How many people on this thread, then compare to number of trades.

[sapphireblue1] 14/3/2024 12:09

Another way to view it if the profit for the holiday business doubles year on year as the company expects then the flight only business has to decrease to hit analyst thoughts.
I don't think that they have understood.

[sapphireblue1] 14/3/2024 11:22

It's important to understand the dynamic. If 4% of seats were previously complete holiday bookings and that increases to 6% of a higher capacity then the return is massively increased (doubled) even before economy of scale. The A1 Europe price on spot doesn't look a big issue to me especially with much hedged anyway, some will be in the price increases for sure.
If £7-8 waits for £1bn profit then something is very broken.

[chiefbrody] 14/3/2024 11:11

There are other factors. Price of oil. How many G&T's they can flog on their flights etc. Load factor I'm sure will be good 90%+. Which makes me hesitant as in just how much can profits improve. Things are as good as they can get (just about). OK oil cloud be lower but the short term travel sector is absolutely booming and many flight prices reflect that. Ryanair make billions but then they're on another level. I guess the holiday business can contribute a lot more in time but I'm still sceptical about a billion quid profit. (Which would help the share price get to 7-8 squid imo).

[sapphireblue1] 14/3/2024 10:59

I am thinking that the analyst profit expectations are way off, certainly for this year. We'll know more in May.
Easter has little capacity for the North to South and return within Easter UK school time period.
Luton Málaga which is my marker is £200-400 going and £200+ going home with 3 flights a day. Those flights must be near maxed out for that heavily served route.
Southend to Málaga starts April 1st and similar prices to Luton.
Gatwick to Málaga 4 flights a day with 50% Sold Out. Evening flights have availability at £250+.
The easyJet scheduling is very impressive and they have saturated the demand routes.
If analysts expect a modest rise in profit this year they are well off target. I believe that the holiday business will double and flight only will show a 40% profit increase.

I am not in the airline industry I am in hospitality within a chain of southern Europe hotels. It's clear to me that demand is high and bargains are hard to find.

[sapphireblue1] 14/3/2024 10:02

I love the understatement of this. Yes it does look like cheap money. Also it's a much reduced amount and 4 x oversub so it goes without saying the institutions see easyjet as a very safe bet.

[sapphireblue1] 14/3/2024 09:52

If indeed I will be doing the same although most of mine are below £4 average so my average price will still be increasing

[chiefbrody] 14/3/2024 09:45

I'd be half tempted to average down if/when this goes into the 4 hundreds.

[sapphireblue1] 14/3/2024 09:25

Explain?? I don't understand. It's the market that doesn't see the value not me.

Maybe some 250 trackers are exiting ahead of leaving the 250 on the 18th. Who knows and frankly who really cares. The market is rarely right and that's my experience. Of course this provides opportunities for investors and I have added more this morning. I will again if it drops.

Just to avoid your stupid answer. It's rarely right because it's rarely static. If it goes down 2% was it wrong yesterday or right today if nothing material has changed.
I fully expect transition turbulence and I am ready.

[noramping] 14/3/2024 09:13

So if everything is rosey, why the recent pull back?

The trend has been lower highs for weeks, care to explain saphire?

[sapphireblue1] 14/3/2024 08:41

The bond (debt) situation has been massively improved, 4x oversubscribed
€850m around £726m with £1.6bn retired. That's a substantial improvement.
Of course they will be adding aircraft and I think that we all would be concerned if they weren't but it is clear that easyJet has a very strong grip on their debt situation.

[sapphireblue1] 14/3/2024 08:31

Brody yes it's true. I think that Easyjet could double their schedule and still fill it but at the moment they have taken the increased price route which makes most sense.
The holidays business are requesting a 25% allocation above contract from Costa del sol hotels to meet demand but I doubt that many of the hotels will manage.
It's looking likely in my opinion that the holiday business will comfortably exceed 250m profit this year from around 6% of flight capacity. Compare to Jet2 who use 70% of capacity for their holiday arm and you can see how much headroom the holiday business has.

[chiefbrody] 13/3/2024 23:27

As I said. We've left but we've not left. A disaster that didn't have to be. Too late to turn around now what's done is done. Get out while you can. That's what I advise all my family and friends lol.

[sapphireblue1] 13/3/2024 15:43

I think (just my opinion) that Easyjet holidays will be allocated 7-8% of the total summer capacity this year. I understand that the estimate was 5-6%. They are actively looking for additional hospitality capacity July, August and September in the Costa del sol region fed by Málaga airport. I don't know about the rest of Spain.
I don't know if this is a new situation or maybe we are on the bottom of their list. It's our first year in contract.

[sapphireblue1] 13/3/2024 13:28

Supply and demand. It's the key driver for the summer months as well. Most holiday flights are already well above previous post Easter prices.

[sapphireblue1] 13/3/2024 08:59

Brody the fraud was to claim that the UK would be financially better off out of Europe. To say that the UK would gain more control of their borders. For the UK public services to receive £350m a day extra. For the restrictions on the foreigners invading the UK.
It played to the masses but was all lies.
I don't think that I need to evidence that every one of those aspects are now in a much worse position. Add to that the fact that the UK like many other countries cannot exist without migrant workers.
Our hotels employ around 600 people permanently and well over 1000 in the summer. Probably 95% migrant workers.
They are more expensive than Europeans but they simply don't want to work hard for a living. In the UK this flexibility would be very difficult because of the visa and work permit system.
Southern Europe is really in a growth period now fueled by Northern European visitors.
Our easyJet holiday allocation is full, sold out to mid September already.

[sapphireblue1] 12/3/2024 16:16

I am not pretending to be.
It's clear when I talk about the company that I am talking about the company and their exceptional commercial recovery. It you who are obsessed by the market and unable to see past the gloom of the UK situation.
I say that the market is terrible, I don't think that you'll argue with that. I say that despite that easyJet will go up, that is just my opinion. Take or leave it I don't care. I am invested here and if you think it will go down you better be invested there.
So surprise. We are both talking our book.
If ever you find that your book and opinion don't align then have a word with yourself

[noramping] 12/3/2024 15:56

I’ve never said it can’t go up, it could rise but like today it could fall.
The short term graph shows this is not pushing higher , more like it’s likely to fall than to rise.

Time will tell, I’m not the one that’s been spouting £5, £6 then £10 and the moon beyond.

Correct I’m not the market, you arent either are you.

[sapphireblue1] 12/3/2024 15:38

noramping you are not the market. You are just spouting an opinion about how the market is.
I say despite the terrible unstable market the share price will go up. This is because I believe that the progress made by the company far exceeds the standard of the depressed market.
I fully accept that it won't go to £10 in this market even though in a boom market it may have. However that doesn't mean that it can't go up.

[noramping] 12/3/2024 14:27

Sapphire, what you see as fair and what the market deems are 2 different things.
People who hold bank shares are thinking the same, plus likely loads of others.

EZJ is no special case.

[noramping] 12/3/2024 14:25

Brexit wasn’t a fraud, it was clear based upon the booklet sent to EVERY home in the country what voting leave would mean.

[sapphireblue1] 12/3/2024 13:04

Brody I don't think that any of us think that Easyjet will ever receive a fair valuation with a single listing in the UK. However even a valuation well below fair can be much higher than the current level.
Yes the UK are screwed, mainly by the isolation caused by Brexit. The restrictions on travel for UK citizens in Europe is the most popular topics in expat forums. The difficulty becoming resident post Brexit is out of most peoples reach.
The damage from the fraud of the Brexit campaign blatant lies is clear to see. However the criminals who spread those lies are free and still involved in the process.
Easyjet need a Euronext listing in my opinion to secure a reasonable valuation.

Until then we'll just be limited to the undervaluation of the assets and revenue. However the level of undervaluation is the point.