Dart Share Discussion Threads

[nakedsteve] 21/11/2017 09:29

it's christmas and tongo is the pantomime villain on this board!

[nakedsteve] 21/11/2017 08:51

tongi, how's that short at 485ish coming along, lol....

[castleford tiger] 21/11/2017 08:18

Market cap just gone past 1 billion.

any press comment anyone?

Tiger

I assume IC have it a buy!

Tiger

[woozle1] 20/11/2017 21:40

I see the old adage, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, applies to you. One syllable names were probably a stretch but it must have been good for your self confidence. 495p short and it's 680. As you are so fond of telling us that share prices are the arbiter of value; which means only one thing. You are wrong.
w1
Did you find the brasso?

[tongosti] 20/11/2017 17:30

a good general has more than one strategy in place. I would have suggested you read Sun Tzu but shining shoes is firmly in the "I do as the crowd does" (ie repeating smth I hear the crowd say without thinking for myself) business not in critical thinking (long stretch for you and many others in far more illustrious careers than yours).

[woozle1] 20/11/2017 16:24

Just a few clicks and you can be short. Make your broker's day! They're waiting for your call.
w1

[woozle1] 20/11/2017 16:02

Tongo,
With your muddled thinking and poor grasp of reality, have you considered a job on the Tory front bench? I'm sure you'll be able to help with Brexit negotiations and you'll feel right home.
w1

[woozle1] 20/11/2017 15:53

You've been polishing away and you are shining.
w1
ps
I've not problem with divergent views just faulty logic and, in your case, not imperfect knowledge but imperfect intelligence and muddled thinking.

[tongosti] 20/11/2017 15:06

TigerTrue - seems to go higher indeed. At the moment. Imperfect knowledge is a key trait of human condition - as such there is no shame in being wrong only in not rectifying (which I make an allowance for even before I get my feet wet) mistakes. Ps. Shoe shine boy - euphoria has grabbed your thinking nuts and any wonder you are not able to understand divergent views (I know it's not your fault though). Poker and money making are both games of odds not excitement. Again, time to read more and write less "funny manager". Learn a thing or two from Tiger on engaging with and understanding opposing views. Mwah!

[woozle1] 20/11/2017 14:17

Time to shine Tongo, a short at 495; surely a screaming short at 678.

Or do you now know the difference between the tail (tea leaves) and the dog (valuation)?

w1
ps
I left the brasso outside your cardboard fortress

[valhamos] 20/11/2017 13:45

We've been told for months this is an obvious short, surely now with the price breaking out to all time highs it must be a buy. So why the silence? Why aren't we being told to buy? Or does momentum only work when prices are falling?

[castleford tiger] 20/11/2017 13:05

New all time high if we close at this level

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 19/11/2017 21:45

Woozle
You could say that but he certainly has done his stuff.
From a 20 m market cap to pushing a billion.
Big question how will it all end?
He has drawn little in salary and TBH some directors just draw big wages and get no return for holders of equity.
Tiger

[legg96] 19/11/2017 10:25

Tiger,
You are my long lost brother! I also have significant investments in Dart and Victoria. Did not get in quite as early as you. 49p for Dart and 47p for Victoria, but have not sold too many on the way up. My total investment is now 550k and of course I have banked all those lovely divs from VCP. I must confess I bought more Dart last Thursday. So I fully endorse your projections.

[woozle1] 19/11/2017 06:11

CT,
You have made good money in VCP (I know the family)and well done but doesn't a an incentive scheme that hands half the company to the CEO (and his mate Alexander Anton) for meeting performance targets smack of corporate greed gone mad?
w1

[snorkelparker] 19/11/2017 04:58

Hiya CF,

Thanks for your detailed insight into the company, all makes sense and matches my thoughts on company prospects, but must admit I have been surprised by the extent of the growth. I fortunately had an early introduction to the company like yourself and from the start was very impressed by PM. But I lack the detail that your analysis brings and appreciate your sharing of thoughts.

Once again i got caught trying to be clever and trading the stock. I have an equity position which I don't really touch, then due to cash constraints I use CFD's to take long positions in the stock.. CFD's bought around the 5 pound mark where sold at 5.65 thinking would buy back on a quick pull back, which was obviously not the case. Fortunately the one week pull back prior to earnings release allowed me to load back up to 80k at an average of 5.90 price.

So, I'm thinking what to do going forward, the underlying equity position is a hold for sure, but holding of the CFD comes with a cost and at the current levels its around 750 quid a month offset against dividends.

My current thoughts are that the stock is about to begin a period of drifting upward from the current level at 6.60 so thinking of holding the CFD's for a few months and see where it goes.

The underlying business of aviation and holidays is a very tough industry and sure PH has had his hands full growing the company through these difficult times, but that said the good news and prospects are outweighing the negatives. But it sometimes doesn't take much to spook investors and with BREXIT, possible currency weakness or an Middle Eastern oil crisis to initiate a sell out in the aviation space.

BTW, do you have any relationship or positions with Keith Ashworth-Lord (Buffettology Fund) ?

Snorkel

[castleford tiger] 18/11/2017 18:25

post 3331
I think November when you/the market see the numbers will be the starting point.
I do expect margin cut again especially as we have driven expansion in SE by effective pricing.
Remember its year 1.
You cannot expect such growth ( a billion on t/o) in a year to come without some margin loss.

As for momentum etc that is always eclipsed by actual results.

PRETTY CLOSE

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 18/11/2017 18:24

snorkel - I would also add that if any sustained move northwards is in the cards, then relative performance (DTG versus own sector) needs to start picking up first.

During DTG's previous relentless ride north (from 100p to 300p and then from 360pto 700p), relative momentum (on rolling 1/3/6 month windows) always showed strong readings which was was a very helpful guidance for what was to come next.

I would keep an eye out on the same for possible future share price direction.

CAN WE HAVE AN UPDATE?

tiger

[castleford tiger] 18/11/2017 18:20

Tong

We are pushing for that new high.

tiger

[castleford tiger] 18/11/2017 18:19

Looking at last time.
160 at half time and a 70 loss in this period.

WHY DO I NOT think the loss will be as great.

Lets start with last time a 11m fx hit.
Set up costs associated with London and Birmingham that fell in the period ,but without revenue.
Last year in the winter period we flew about 300k holiday flights.
This year I expect DOUBLE that.
That keeps the planes busy as half the seats are holidays.
Today 44 planes from 75 were in the air and a fair few New York trips are on going..

Dart are always cautious but this line is key on page 1.
Since the half year end ,we have seen a further strengthening of customer demand ,particularly for flight only product .We are ahead of expectations.

So looking back at the half year.
Growth at the expense of margin was better than expected. Almost 40% up in all areas.
They say as much "some price investment"
simply put we were buying business............and we new operations that's quite right.
I expect margin to move back to a + position in the second half.

Just add 1% back in there and what a difference...

The numbers
long term debt has increased as we purchase new planes borrowings up 410m will of course cost us a few bob.
However against it we still have well on the way to a billion in the bank in upfront payments from customers.

So where does this leave us well I think even the revised figures are far too light and in typical DART fashion they will drip the good news out.
The company must be worth 12x earnings with this kind of growth especially in the holiday division.
I see a much slower growth in 18 maybe close to 15% but margins will improve and once Stanstead and Birmingham are fully bedded in ,I think further expansion ( Bristol) cannot be ruled out.
The company is well run and the airline is pretty good at getting flights away.
Always weather exceptions but we don't just cancel.
I think 90p eps could be achieved ( before any of these nonsense) write downs on fx etc.
As such just 11x gets me my 10.00 target and well on the way to a £20.00 target based on full year ending march 21 figures.
Profit of over 300m by then and the no 1 in the UK.

The future is bright and I remain a holder.
We are very close to breaking new ground and about 42 x my first 16p a share investment.
However our Friends at Victoria carpets are hot as well. The shares cost me 100p and we got 68p back in dividends followed by 292p a share total 360p
The shares have been split by 5 so the cost would be 20p. On Friday they were 840p which guess what is 42x my original investment.
Only on the dividend's does Victoria get it .

tiger
ps
now if I had held onto all those I once had !!!!!!!

[woozle1] 17/11/2017 09:43

Ding dong. Bell end alarm still sounding.

[tongosti] 17/11/2017 09:30

Whatever makes you happy "funny manager" - ahhh good old insecurities have kicked inMwah!