Dart Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 12/10/2017 21:51

Must have been really obsessed with it fella didn't you? Am so sorry you waited for so long - poor you!I remember you being very sheepish last year when I made money shorting from 480 to 380 and I don't remember you congratulating me then (not that I need it but making the point). Did anyone tell you this is a probability game and unlike most on here I am very aware anything can happen (unlike the shoe shine boys of this world who are always on a "no-brainer") in this business. Hence my predetermined risk size policy (unlike a clueless rookie of this board who once said he doesn't mind being 90% down on his investments). Together with my added shorts at 510 I am about to lose (still not stopped out) the ... mighty 2.3% of my trading account. That's pro for you when things do not work out as you expect In case it never dawned on you this game is not about right or wrong. Instead, this is about how much you win when you're right VS how much you lose when you wrong (see my comment on risk sizing above on this). Send my love to the shoe shine boy PS. While the crowd on here agree 100% that DTG is the best thing since sliced bread, better avoid taking a victory lap prematurely with share price still not recovering its all time highs. DTG has underperformed all major averages and even cash over the last 12 months. Patience.

[nakedsteve] 12/10/2017 19:41

hahahahahahahahaha

[castleford tiger] 12/10/2017 14:46

tongosti

Do you still feel this is going down?
Are you still short?

Tiger
THIS IS WHAT YOU SAID......less than a month ago



For the very few who understand (or know) the game: price not reacting to seemingly bullish / bearish news indicates a very weak / strong market.

DTG will not advance meaningfully unless the business smashes current expectations (not simply meet them).

Share price EXTREMELY vulnerable.

Below 475 short positions worth increasing.

[woozle1] 11/10/2017 19:24

CT, Tui and TCG are exiting the low end of the package holiday market and Jet2 adverts are on buses and lots of outdoor advertising here in London. And so the combination of a changing marketplace and much increased addressable markets means that there should be plenty of interest, as per your post.

Do you think that more punters will now go for a package holiday that is ATOL protected or still risk flight only and booking the hotel and transfers separately? That could be another reason behind the increased volumes.

I'm also wondering what's going to happen to all those Boeing planes that Monarch was going to buy. According to the FT, they agreed to buy 30 737s with the option for a further 15 at "favourable" prices. Boeing apparently won't be drawn on the price and the money that was invested in Monarch.

TCG has a market cap of £1.8bn. Other than Armageddon or the cold, hard Brexit that some desire and that grounded aircraft (as Hammond said today), I see little reason why DTG should not be a more valuable company in 2 years time.

[castleford tiger] 11/10/2017 16:51

ok so look at these numbers.

Monday last week we sold 31,000 holidays against 1400 the same day previous year.
These are rumoured to be true !
( The current year if averaged out was 7000 a day if every day was equal )
It could have been post Monarch panic but should we get to 10,000 a day it will equate to a year total of 3.6 million.........an increase on my forecast for current year of 1 million based on year end of 2.5 million.
Not sure actually if our ATOL system allows that many. They have a funny mid year end and I think 2.9 was mentioned

That's some potential growth.

We sold more flights in a DAY than in a month the previous year.

The figures are astounding.

Please remember that these are not official figures so carry a health warning.
Just thought holders of the shares might like to know just how business is booming.

Official figures show flight prices up 21% year on year ( which would have been enough to save Monarch)

The shares look like they are starting to react to what's going on in the industry.

I remain a buyer and the £10.00 pre 2020 may have to be revised up very soon.
As ever I expect caution from the company who seem to of added 2 more planes to a fleet size of 76.
The remaining new 737/800`s will all be in place by April 18 and further purchases are very much on the cards.

Tiger

[wilddcw] 11/10/2017 16:28

Doogle/Tiger - "I thought your daughter's discussion about Jet2's IT portal was very pertinent. I'm guessing the majority of jet2 sales must come from it."

This is an interesting question as Jet2Holidays have a huge proportion of the more mature travellers who love the customer service over other companies (bread and butter in low season) - many of them don't book online or check-in online. It would be interesting to see the trends as to how people book and the underlying costs associated with each. Steve Heapy quoted that a new customer costs 30 x the amount it costs to retain an existing customer.

[castleford tiger] 11/10/2017 08:32

Seeing I have his ear I will try again.
tiger

[nocton] 11/10/2017 08:17

"he could have bent a little on the AGM even starting it later." I entirely agree, Tiger. I am in the same position as you re getting to an AGM at that time. I asked about changing the time a couple of years ago, but received a non-committal reply saying they would consider it or something similar. I have shares in another AIM company that is similarly contemptuous of ordinary shareholders. A pity as it is is otherwise a good company to hold. The opposite are companies like Churchill China who hold their AGM at a convenient time and give you lunch!

[castleford tiger] 10/10/2017 18:34

No but they use for flight only.
I will ask her to outline the issues as its way over my head
tiger

[shaker44] 10/10/2017 18:09

I didn't dig deeper to look at flight options etc. So can't comment on that.
Your daughter sounds like a millennial or similar so surely not our target market really? More likely to be independent traveller than all inclusive maybe?
I know my offspring wouldn't consider jet2 in a month of Sunday's, except flight only maybe if they fly somewhere interesting!

[shaker44] 10/10/2017 18:04

Android phone

[castleford tiger] 10/10/2017 17:40

Shaker

good but did you use a phone/tablet or your PC ?

[shaker44] 10/10/2017 17:35

I have just tried it and found it slick and fast. I looked at a week in early December in Estepona as it's a town I know well.
But only offered 1 hotel which is out of town and at 2000£, not cheap although it is an upmarket hotel. So if I had a complaint it would be the very limited choice but the IT search was terrific

[shaker44] 10/10/2017 17:35

I have just tried it and found it slick and fast. I looked at a week in early December in Estepona as it's a town I know well.
But only offered 1 hotel which is out of town and at 2000£, not cheap although it is an upmarket hotel. So if I had a complaint it would be the very limited choice but the IT search was terrific

[shaker44] 10/10/2017 17:29

Now you have me concerned Tiger. Is their IT platform really bad? It's a critical part of their business of course.
We're you reassured that it's work in progress?

[doogle99] 10/10/2017 17:10

Looking at the rest of the people at the AGM I guessed that was you with your daughter, especially after the 2.5 million figure. Great to get the family involved!

With TUI and Thomas Cook no longer selling jet2holidays (both clearly see the threat from the new No2 in the market) I thought your daughter's discussion about Jet2's IT portal was very pertinent. I'm guessing the majority of jet2 sales must come from it.

[castleford tiger] 10/10/2017 11:15

I do think Jet 2 get a shed load of free advertising on the trailers.

You heard me push him on the holiday numbers that slipped out then ?

My daughter was the one who discussed IT with them. She develops it for MOD and says they need to get it sorted , as they are behind the curve?
Tiger

[castleford tiger] 10/10/2017 11:13

Ah that was you!

[doogle99] 10/10/2017 10:33

Thanks CT. Any update on your predicted long term share price?

Asked PM about FW at the AGM. What’s the point of having a haulage unit when it’s such a small part of the business/ why not split it off?

Apparently the banks (+ PM) like having the stability/ predictability/ physical assets of the long running FW business compared to the fluctuations of the aviation industry.

[castleford tiger] 10/10/2017 10:06

JET 2 PLC would certainly attract attention.
PM likes it under the radar and we are a clear no2 in the market now.

All the press re monarch and no one said Jet 2 will do well out of it.

Our holidays division will show 50% growth this year up to 2,500,000

Split 1.65 million first half and 850 during off season.

£40.00 profit per holiday gives us = 100 million.



By contrast MON did 300k last year ( we will add about 900k this year )


First half I can see us being very close to 200m profit and the second half will now be much stronger than forecast

Tiger

[nakedsteve] 10/10/2017 09:02

got you, thanks!

[1pvh] 10/10/2017 08:20

I think the suggestion is to change company name from Dart Group to Jet 2 ?

[nakedsteve] 10/10/2017 07:54

but i don't understand why jet2 should change it's name? it's a brand now, the last thing it should do is change it's name surely....

[1pvh] 10/10/2017 07:41

Fowler Welsh. That's the transport arm of the company. They own most of the depots they trade out of. They do very nicely and grow their asset base annually. Think Dart should keep them 'for old times sake'!