Dart Share Discussion Threads

[woozle1] 17/11/2017 09:20

Time to shine, little man.

[woozle1] 17/11/2017 09:14

Ding dong. Bell end alert. Get your brasso out and start shining. Time to shine, Tongo.

[woozle1] 17/11/2017 08:39

Tiger,
Having met him a couple of times and spoken with the previous FD when I was fund manager, Meeson's exit is in a coffin or ill health. Both these events could precipitate a sale of the company.

Personally, I'd like to see him running the business as long as possible. The man has integrity and I really like the absence of waffle about creating shareholder value. He opens the management preamble with, we take people on holiday! He knows that if they do this well, the profits will follow. Likewise, Games Workshop, my other large holding. also start with statements with "Games Workshop's ambitions remain clear: to make the best fantasy miniatures in the world".

w1

[castleford tiger] 17/11/2017 08:02

woozle
There were many costs in setting up the bases in last years and they are not repeated.
Prices on flight only products have increased dramatically.( for winter period and early spring)
Load factor for first 2 months running much higher.
More 737/800 in fleet so reduced costs per seat.
More contract work.

I feel the holiday division will get to 2.50 million so almost 700,000 winter holidays will keep the fleet busy. Figure for first half was 1.80.

What we have to work out is what PM has planned as an exit route.

I cannot see anything happening until he gets a billion so a market cap of 2.2 which is about 16 quid a share.
Lots more growth left in the uk.
Last year was a difficult year ( re pricing ) can you imagine the figures in a normal market.
Headwinds WERE
real drop in earnings
Very low euro /£ rate
over capacity ( now reduced with Monarch going)


I think 5 million holidays a year is very possible.

Tiger

[sf5] 16/11/2017 18:14

FWIW someone on Stockopedia yesterday (not in the context of DTG) gave the following guide to trading-update-speak:

"Materially better" than expectations : +10% to +15% beat
"Comfortably ahead" of expectations : +2% to +10% beat
"In line" with expectations : 0 to +2% beat
"Broadly in line" with expectations : 0 to -5% miss

Anyway, kudos to Meeson on these figures. I've been in awe of him since his long gone days as a Pitts display pilot.

[woozle1] 16/11/2017 17:51

Gosh. I was going 65-70p. 80p would mean winter losses almost the same as last year and they have a bigger expense base. You must be confident about winter sun and ski trading!
w1

[castleford tiger] 16/11/2017 17:39

YEA BUT THEY WILL have to move them up.
I think close to 80p this year ending march.

there is my tenner

tiger

[woozle1] 16/11/2017 16:55

Hi CT,
I agree with your analysis and that 12 times seems fair. Assuming 60-70 EPS for y/e 2018, shares should be valued at 720-840p. The problem is that the company keep sticking a lower number the year after. 2019 the forecast EPS is 45.3p.
w1

[castleford tiger] 16/11/2017 16:27

FOKKER

what valuation you placed on them? via EPS.

Should we not be nearer WIZZ on 12 x ?

I feel our mix ( holidays and flights) is better

Tiger

[pjleeds] 16/11/2017 14:52

What a load of BLX, leave it to PM to run the show, and enjoy the ride. P.s clench buttocks.

[fokker45] 16/11/2017 14:10

My notes from this mornings H1 results:

THU 16NOV2017
DTG
H1 results.
1. PBT margin slipped from 13.2% to 12.8%. Given that Dart grew by a third (+34.1%), this was a very impressive result.
2. Average fare for flight only passengers was significantly down 17.3% from £91.88 to £75.95. Load factors remained constant at 93.2%. This is worrying, but given 41% increase in seat capacity, and considerable expansion in new markets (BHX and STN), this may not be too surprising.
3. Costs were up 34.8%, but given seats increased by 41%, cost per seat fell significantly. No mention in the report, but presume mainly due introduction of 189 seat B738 (the B733 has 148 seats).
4. Since half year end (30SEP2017), seen further strengthening of customer demand, notably flight only. Given Monarch (who were mainly flight only) went bankrupt on 02OCT2017, this is not surprising. However, it does mean H2 should be proportionally stronger than normal this year, and hope the average fare improves in H2.
5. Stated cost pressures, but with costs 34.8% up and seats flown 41% up, the company is benefiting from economies of scale.
6. Committing additional aircraft to BHX, STN and other bases in Summer 2018. No mention of new bases. No mention of Monarch, nor the LGW slots up for grabs.
7. Dividend growth of 9%, now covered 78 times. While dividend could easily be significantly increased, it is perhaps sensible to restrict growth given substantial growth of fleet.
8. Fleet growth from 64 to 75 aircraft, 17.2% increase, but 41% extra seats indicating more productivity or increase in size (not disclosed).
9. Meeson says will materially exceed for FY2018, but yet again, no figures/guidance.
10. My worst-case scenario for FY2018 (end 31MAR2018) would be Revenue £2,319m, PBT £111m, and FY2019 would be Revenue £2,607m, PBT £123m.
11. By 2pm shares were up 8.5% from 600p to 651p.
12. My fair value price for end FY2019 would be 875p.
13. Given positive results and can see 34% upside by 31MAR2019, added 2.5% more shares (would have added more, but holding little cash at present) to existing holdings at 654p (inc charges).

[castleford tiger] 16/11/2017 13:43

Short answer YES

since monarch went bust the -17% on passg yield has reversed dramatically. Prices are much higher but may settle down next summer.
That's a massive boost to winter as they sold much higher priced tickets.
Contract work for cruise companies etc is taking off. This is winter work.
Big expansion to Canaries this winter ( the first from the South and Brum)

Fleet will have to grow more next spring to cope with the new flights.

Unless we get massive weather disruption I can see DART smashing that new figure.

I remain a buyer.
These figures today show what to expect in year two of the new bases.


Tiger

[woozle1] 16/11/2017 13:35

So in H1 2017 DTG made 90.65p and reported 51.8p in the y/e and implies second half losses of 38.8p (90.65 less 51.8).

In H1 2018 DTG made 117p and forecast to make 52p in y/e and this implies second half losses of 65p (117 minus 52). This means a massive 71% increase in H2 losses versus a year earlier.

Castleford,
Do you think this number reflects reality or wiggle room for the company. I know that the fleet is now bigger and that would imply larger losses but there must be greater utilisation because the new airports have cover a larger and more prosperous demographic (I'm not anti North!) and there is the opportunity to fly more skiers. Furthermore, the newer planes will have lower maintenance costs.

Are DTG deliberately low balling the numbers as they've been doing for years?

w1

[woozle1] 16/11/2017 13:18

BTW Cannacord upgraded EPS from 40p to 52p for y/e mar 2018. My own view is 60-70p
w1

[castleford tiger] 16/11/2017 12:49

You have to deduct what's owed to customers as well

agree but part paid assets ?

So you live in a 1 million pound house and owe 50 grand that's the position.
liabilities are owe 50k ?

[spob] 16/11/2017 12:38

re 3427

to give me an indication of net balance sheet liabilities

but i'm a very hard nosed deep value investor

so please ignore my ramblings :)

[woozle1] 16/11/2017 12:05

Where's the bell shiner? I'm sure missing his wisdom as he'd be able to explain everything in usual incoherent ramblings.
w1

[saltaire111] 16/11/2017 12:04

Surely further expansion is now a dead cert for Dart. New bases in tourist hot-spots and filling the gap left by Monarch. Now No2 in package market, couldn’t really be any better for Dart. Great results, topping up my holding here.

Salty

[castleford tiger] 16/11/2017 11:54

WHY WOULD YOU take current assets against total liabilities?

Fixed assets such as aircraft say costing 50 million and part paid would appear as a liability with no asset?
so 20 planes with 25 million paid would show as a liability of 500 million ( as there was still this to pay)
???
Tiger

[spob] 16/11/2017 10:14

personally i prefer to look at current assets minus total liabilities

for DTG, this is now ~ minus 263m

[spob] 16/11/2017 10:12

It's because of the accounting definition of the term "Net Cash"

which does not include adjustments for advance customer payments


something to be aware of for companies which take payments in advance of services to be provided

nonetheless these reults are very good and i am not bashing Dart group

just don't want people to be misled into thinking these are cheaper than they are

[1pvh] 16/11/2017 09:38

You could be right Spob. I took it that net cash is net cash after borrowings and customer deposits. Poor wording I think. Have you telephoned the FD to clarify? Cheers

[meijiman] 16/11/2017 09:07

Yes important to note that the advance payments is simply that ...folk pay for their holidays in advance. It is not available to the company in the normal sense of net cash.
Overall excellent stuff as per above posts.

[spob] 16/11/2017 08:59

Regarding post 3418

I think the Net cash Figure in the last sentence is after borrowings but still includes advance payments


I see it like this...


Cash and money market deposit balance 931.1m

Borrowings 574.2m

Advance payments 345.8m



Therfore Net cash after borrowings but still including advance payments equals 356.9m

However Net cash after borrowings and after advance payments equals 11.1m



Please correct me if you think i am wrong

or call the finance director 0113 239 7817