Dart Share Discussion Threads

[castleford tiger] 23/9/2017 18:20

rumours about Norwegian also doing the rounds.

All I can say is that LBA last Sunday was packed and our 757 was full ( there were 3 no shows) and my pal from Manc was also full as in 100%

Return from Faro Friday the Airport was like mid summer except no kids.

Again Man and Leeds both 757 and we looked full again ( no first class for me)

Talking to the girls on the way out they explained how they take 4 months off and how standby both at Airport and home works.
Service excellent and check-in both sides fast and smooth.

I remain of the opinion we should get to 2.5 m holidays and a huge jump in t/o
Profit rolls from year 1 once you get repeat customers at new base and that figure is high. Over 60%

tiger

[woozle1] 23/9/2017 17:43

Some interesting points at the bottom of CT's article from travelweekly:

A merger or sell off based on Monarchs slot position at Gatwick makes sense and consolidates a short haul European market with too much supply and not enough demand, the weak pound is crippling Monarch as their revenues are almost all in
Sterling the write off for the Airbus is mind boggling and makes no sense to me either..

The sad thing is Monarchs original model with Cosmos is no different to Jet2holidays now (who are making a success of the model) and Monarch should of stuck to this model but moved much faster on web distribution and streamlined the branding to www,flymonach.com which they started to do but u turned,

They threw the baby out with the bathwater when they shut down Cosmos
and killed third party flying ALL under the current CEOs watch which was a catastrophic own goal.

Its a crying shame that Monarch have suffered at the hands of too many CEOs who justdid not cut the mustard after Danny Bernstein its been down hill all the way with thelemming approach to strategy and all these guys since in effect have been the companies failing.

The Success of jet2 is down to the leadership and drive of the major shareholder and Chairman Mr Philip Meeson.

Ryanair have Micheal Oleary ..like marmite love him who hate him he is a worker and a leader and drives his business

All successful companies need strong leaders

Monarch had all the ingredients but have not had the leadership since Alan Snudden
and Danny Bernstein to follow through and evolve

My belief is Ryanair will move in on Monarch for the LGW slots and their experienced and well trained Crews this will offer a lot of insurance for the future after Brexit and give them a UK AOC and Engineering set up

Lets see how it all plays out but i hope Monarch is saved and jobs preserved even under a different brand for Short haul operations at least,

I think any thought of a hub and spoke op from Gatwick since Norwegian and Easy Jets cleaver deal check makes any hope of Monarch becoming a long haul operator
unless it has Chinese or Asian backing to do so on routes not serviced by Norwegian.

My bet Ryanair as it makes alot of sense and gives a positive spin on what for them has been a black week and will get their horror story out of the press too.

[shaker44] 23/9/2017 14:30

Maybe better to just beat them in the market as now, rather than inherit their problems. Unless we get a good enough deal to asset strip.

[castleford tiger] 23/9/2017 14:04

hxxp://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/287595/monarch-confirms-comprehensive-review-amid-short-haul-sell-off-speculation

I think we could take them out.

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 23/9/2017 14:01

hxxp://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/287667/jet2com-named-uks-most-punctual-airline-in-august-by-oag

great news

[castleford tiger] 22/9/2017 19:16

just returned from Faro - Leeds on a 757 without a spare seat.
Faro manch was also fully booked

Staff happy and very busy.
Persons next to me on 5th holiday with JET 2 holidays and said superb.
8 flights out of Faro today at lunch time.
The RY air issue just helps us.

Full report and findings later
tiger

[snorkelparker] 21/9/2017 18:06

CT,
I think its possible to get a good idea how many package holidays are booked by the number of ATOL insurances taken.. I haven't seen this info first hand but believe jet 2 is number 2 .. Monarch looking like they are back in trouble. hoping jet 2 won't buy them, which I think is unlikely but be some benefit one thinks if they get into further trouble and maybe exit the short haul and holiday business.. customers for grabs and a few cheap planes

[tongosti] 15/9/2017 19:03

Tiger - let's agree to disagree this Late Friday. Have a good weekend. PS. Shoe shine boy - you should write less and think a bit more. Much more. You are what could be safely described as a zealot who is familiar with one version of the story only. You're really are out of your depth sunshine when it comes to discussing (you wish) investing. Mwah

[woozle1] 15/9/2017 17:36

CT, you are really wasting your time with this buffoon. He misunderstands Buffett's investment in airlines: what killed him was unions and the commercial landscape of 1970s. In 2016 BRKB invested $9bn in airlines, which tells you what Buffett thinks now about the industry.

If Drongo thinks that the market has unrealistically high expectations, it must be in his head because a p/e of 11 is not high for a business like this. He also does not appreciate that DTG is in fact disruptor; it's come into the package business with a much lower cost base than the main competition like Tui and TCG and is forcing them into alternative growth strategies; moving away from the low end travel package business and leaving DTG to pick up lots of new customers. The new planes and airports are not a vanity project of a deluded company and the deferred liabilities are testament to this.

But then again this is not information that easily gleaned from staring at a chart and speculating if the share price is going up or down in the next 5 mins.

w1

[castleford tiger] 15/9/2017 17:09

Now, you are talking about revenues doubling in two years but you may want to bear in mind total liabilities have trebled in the last 5 years (obviously due to expansion and hence the break on profits). I expect further significant growth on the right hand side of the balance sheet going forward.

Hold on a second.
DART was until they took the first new plane just a year ago totally debt free.
They had net cash even after flying everyone that had paid.

They had a real net worth. They own Hangers, buildings you know Real assets.

They had Cash sitting in the bank.

The market does get things wrong when you get companies as big as Next falling to 36.00 and then bouncing 28% to 50.00pounds.

So there are opportunities

Tiger

[tongosti] 15/9/2017 16:29

(At the risk of sounding redundant) that was not meant for you boyTip time: don't mistake this old and aged bull market for (your) brains

[woozle1] 15/9/2017 15:36

Yawn! No need for sleeping pills. Thanks Tongo

[tongosti] 15/9/2017 09:27

One more thing using simple maths: expecting revenues to double in three years gives you about 24% pa gwth rate (annually compounded).

Rare exanple: Apple has enjoyed about 30% annually compounded gwth in sales over the last 10 years.

Think we all agree Apple is a genuine innovator [with airlines being a completely different proposition (lack of durable competitive advantage - Buffett's words on the industry not mine- makes them compete on price grounds only) and having nothing to do with innovation].

It logically follows that for the market to move sustainably north (after all market move higher from A to B on positive surprises) DTG need to delivers growth in excess of your expected 24%.


In the context of the Apple - it's clear as day to me why the market is very skeptical (that's why I have said all along the bar of expectations is unrealistically high)

[tongosti] 15/9/2017 08:52

Finally - as most have Buffett as the High Priest of investing on here, one may want to bear in mind what the wise man says: the best time to walk out is when everything is rosy / growth is perpetual in nature / there is no reason to worry about anything.

Btw, Buffett has always been extremely careful about airlines due due their a) cyclical nature and b) their commoditised business nature.

[tongosti] 15/9/2017 08:46

"However looking at the fleet size and t/o etc its a fair assessment of where I think the company will be by 2020.
I have profits of about 200 m so I have given a 10x valuation.
I think the t/o will be much higher than 3b revenue. PLUS 20%
1.7 last year
2.6 current year ended April
3.1 year ended April 19
3.6 year ended April 20

these are things we know as a great deal of NEXT years t/o has been booked."

In my view, the mistake you are making is leaving gearing levels completely out of the equation.

PE ratios are most relevant in ungeared balance sheet companies (PE was far more relevant for DTG prior to expansion but not the one to count on going forward). Once you leap into debt territory, valuing companies on the basis of PEs is far, far trickier (I would personally never extrapolate on previous such readings but rather employ the EV/FCF instead).

As I can't quite work out FCF levels say 3 years out (because of so many uncertainties on the future cost base), I'd rather not speculate too much on PEs.

Now, you are talking about revenues doubling in two years but you may want to bear in mind total liabilities have trebled in the last 5 years (obviously due to expansion and hence the break on profits). I expect further significant growth on the right hand side of the balance sheet going forward.

The problem is that if ANYTHING goes wrong (recession / bear market for example), the timing of expansion will be prove to be disastrously off while you will still be left with a much much higher cost base.

In my view, this is a very strong reason that DTG has not only stalled but reversed its former price advance.

You are not the only one working out revenues climbing up 100% in two years. Mr Market already knows that (any wonder most on here are convinced this is a one way bet?). How come the market is spectacularly missing it then?

A few (like our resident shoe shining boy) tend to think that markets are constantly stupid and they know best.

Contrary to what a many on here believe, markets VERY RARELY (last major one was in late 2008/early 2009 ) make mistakes and miss super growth opportunities.

Unless DTG breaks north of 700p (i.e. your fundamental view being validated by market action), you are wrong in assuming you have the downside protected.

If equity markets turn tomorrow (with DTG being in the midst of a multi year expansion) one can see all airlines plummet 50-80% (historical averages for the industry) in value before recovering.

Using fundamentals alone at such a late stage in the cycle (and choosing to neglect the fact that there is always a reason why markets have priced DTG 40% from its all time highs + is not able to outperform even the FTSE 100 for more than a year) is a bold game.

P.S. Incidentally, compare the historical performance of DTG with any super growth story of the past (anyone remembers Internet's never ending growth stories back in 2000) and you will see the true hallmarks of a BUBBLE

[castleford tiger] 15/9/2017 08:24

yes not sure where you get those numbers from?
Re size.
Tiger

[snorkelparker] 14/9/2017 21:18

they must be number 2 or getting very close to overtaking TC in the UK holiday market.. I can see those estimates of CT playing out..

[woozle1] 14/9/2017 20:24

Don't bother, CT. This fool is not interested in facts unless verified by a tea leaf scatter.
w1

[castleford tiger] 14/9/2017 18:23

MARKET CAP 2 billion by 2020.

You work that out.

Tiger

NOT SURE I SAID 100% CERTAIN.

However looking at the fleet size and t/o etc its a fair assessment of where I think the company will be by 2020.
I have profits of about 200 m so I have given a 10x valuation.
I think the t/o will be much higher than 3b revenue. PLUS 20%
1.7 last year
2.6 current year ended April
3.1 year ended April 19
3.6 year ended April 20

these are things we know as a great deal of NEXT years t/o has been booked.
Tiger

[tongosti] 12/9/2017 23:05

Just about time you cleaned up that mess on my shoes boy

[woozle1] 12/9/2017 21:20

£3bn revenue and 6% op margin =s £180m pre tax or £145m post tax with a multiple of 14 and you get a market of £2bn.

But there again tea leaves and maths don't really go to go together.

w1

[tongosti] 12/9/2017 19:36

100% certainty?You can't be serious. I'd rather pass on that one - must have read somewhere the future is by definition unknowable (let alone give prediction X by time Y - Heavens forbid). P.S. Today was one of the busiest days of 2017 (top 5) volume wise. Interesting this happens days after latest update (which Mr Market completely brushed aside before reversing) and at around crucial 500p level.

[castleford tiger] 12/9/2017 18:24

MARKET CAP 2 billion by 2020.

You work that out.

Tiger

[tongosti] 12/9/2017 15:24

Snorkle I understand your view as you're playing for a much longer horizon than I am. One thing I would still argue in your 3-5 year timeframe is that for the share price to double you implicitly are making the assumption that there will be no major bear market in equities between now and then. I personally find that a tall order considering the length of the existing bull market cycle in global equities.In an ideal world, I would like to meaningfully initiate a long on DTG at some stage during the next bear market (naturally, assuming the fundamental case of the business stays intact between now and then). Until then short is my inclination so will see.

[snorkelparker] 12/9/2017 15:02

Have to agree with you tongosti the share is not acting particularly good after last weeks piece of updated trading news, i'm a bull on this stock and like Tiger have been in from ages back. Whilst the news seems to be pretty positive the stock has not maintained its initial burst and re assumed a slow leak down.

I'm always looking for a reason to think that this stock will not double over the next 3 - 5 years and don't seem to see anything fundamentally off. Put this price action down to the overall caution in the UK markets especially companies with uncertainty surrounding BREXIT and exposure to GBP movements.

Over the years noticed the stock has phases of lackluster performance, no real heavy selling but not any bullish buyers really pushing and holding the price higher, so far to date patience has been the name of the game, being rewarded by a spell of higher prices.

Have sold some positions at times of suspected weakness only to be caught by another leg up so decided to add again today..

Bet you a pint that it hits 550 before 450...