Dart Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 15/1/2018 17:40

Bull markets VS brains argument being name of the game in today's markets. interesting times one lives in!

[woozle1] 15/1/2018 16:42

Yawn, yawn, yawn. Price versus business. Tongo you know the price of everything but the value of nothing. That should be your epitaph in card board city.
w1 xx

[shaker44] 15/1/2018 15:10

Tiger, I understand and agree with much of what you say but my own view is that when the market turns (USA first probably) ALL shares will get dragged down, and AIM may decrease faster than FTSE 100.
You may be right about share ownership in DTG customer base although I suggest many will have market exposure through pension schemes.
But what will change is sentiment. Rates going up a little- positive sentiment declines. House prices flatten- another sentiment decline. Media noise around Brexit-
another decline. And then Wall St drops followed by ftse and sentiment takes another hit. Maybe our customers will take 2 holidays instead of 3!
So far I am hanging on in there as it is so hard to get the timing right- and I dont want another big cgt bill!
There are positive signs too that suggest markets have further to go. Global and european growth is forecast to rise for 12/24 months at least. Trumps tax giveaways are scary for long term debt, but supportive of corporate earnings in the short run.
Oil is increasing a little (not good for airlines) and gold is low and flat, both of which suggest a belief in economic growth
Its finely balanced, and I may top slice after April 5, depending on markets at that time!

[tongosti] 15/1/2018 14:22

Totally disagree - Amazon and Apple (on zero debt levels) collapsed about 70% in value during latest bear market. And we are talking about genuine industry wide disrupters here (not a very, very old school travel business). We can both agree that (Apple and amazon) have been phenomenal growth stories but a bear market decimated them regardless (DTG collapsed 90% in 2007-8). You are clearly willing to take this risk but we both know the proverbial 99% has no steel in them to stay in the game when their holdings have collapsed in value. And it's this latter group (which rides the market in reverse and undoubtedly includes most of this board despite what they pretend on here) I was referring to.

[castleford tiger] 15/1/2018 13:31

lets try and work out what happens to DART when the BULL market stops.

Its fair to say 99.8% of dart customers will not trade shares ,so be unaffected.

Will people continue to take holidays? of course they will.

As our baby boomers reach retirement more holidays will be taken by this affluent group of people. Most bought homes in the 60`s to 70`s at under 10 grand.

People see the end of a BULL market and remember the 100 is driven by companies with overseas earnings, as a start of an economic turn down.
Well I think the conditions over the last 5 years with no growth in real wages have been tougher than anything seen for a while ( that's why house prices are not going up)

So if and when the BEAR market strikes what will happen?
Well for a starter people will hammer the companies on 50/60/70/80/90 x earnings as that is only justified if they can keep doubling in size.
Take Boohoo .com

They will look for companies resilient to a turn down ,for companies that are needed such as utilities ,and for companies that are well asset backed and have little debt.
I think on just 10 x earnings DART fit that.
The last thing to go is the holiday but they would like a fixed price so that drops right into JET 2.
Someone run those HOLIDAY number and the growth. 1.7 m last year to 2.5 ( my forecast in year end march) so where to we go in current year 3 million?

If DART was overvalued and that was based on huge growth and lots of debt then I would worry.
However quite the opposite as forecasts have profits falling.
I stick by my £10.00 by 2020 target and expect top review that following updates on the new fleet /pass numbers/ hol numbers etc for 2017 due in early summer.

Tiger

[tongosti] 15/1/2018 13:12

Different take and I get it - not for me but good luck anyways

[snorkelparker] 15/1/2018 12:56

Risk factors always are present.. And markets are tough to time..easy to follow the camp that it's a tied bull market and it's heading for an imminent crash. But also on the flip side is the current conditions could run for another handful of years.. So no use being out the market while it chugs up 50%.. So buy a realistically valued company with good growth and stay invested.. I agree with Tiger on this year's numbers being solid and missed by the market and potentially putting a few more pounds on this stock..so wiling to take my chances on a global sell off. Dart has showed it can compete in a low cost environment, people will always go on holiday so a downturn could strengthen Dart in the long run.

[tongosti] 15/1/2018 10:57

Good points snorkel. I still think you have left out a major, major risk factor and that is the probability attached to a decade long bull market (in DTG and stocks at large) to continue untroubled going forward. Why is this relevant? A bear market sinks all boats (fact not fiction) and we are much much nearer the top then bottom of the market. Surprised all future projections given on this board leave out this fact as if the broader context has no relevance on what is a ... travel business. In other words, DTG may indeed one day reach £10 or above but chances that it reaches down much lower before it does so increases dramatically with each day this tired bull market in equities marches to fresh highs

[snorkelparker] 14/1/2018 12:28

One thing the market has consistently proved over the last 5 years is the ability to miss the fundamentals and just look at the risk or a recent company statement. A sell off after the case of Jet2 vs Huzar was a great entry point. Brexit again completely over cooked and recently the slight miss on 2016 earnings. There is a reason why great investors make tons of cash betting on their convictions when the market is wrong..

Current price action is difficult to read, i'm a little concerned how the stock backed off after its opening price over 700 in around an hour of trading on Friday.. Only consolation is there is no volume to suggest a change in direction. Euro is gaining strength against the dollar with Stirling moving with it so even though oil is rising GBP purchasing power is rising too.

[woozle1] 13/1/2018 15:22

Mr Market is better at discounting large cap. It doesn't work well in small cap.

[castleford tiger] 12/1/2018 14:09

totally missed.

Will beat forecasts by a country mile

tiger

[tongosti] 12/1/2018 14:05

Question is - have those profits been totally discounted by Mr Market?

[melody9999] 11/1/2018 23:59

Apart from winter Canaries load factors being good because of Monarch, I hear from property owner friends that prices for Minorca summer are significantly higher. They are complaining but as a DTG shareholder, I am looking forward to increasing profits.

[tongosti] 11/1/2018 09:49

Day trading pattern - ah my God!

[shaker44] 11/1/2018 08:23

Thanks Tiger. Possibly the lawyers are just flying a kite. We will see.
I still find that fall rather odd, and outside the trading pattern.
Never heard of Lpa so had a look. Very small company with an erratic share price.
Not sure what makes it exciting but best of luck with it.

[castleford tiger] 11/1/2018 06:44

Pretty sure that Jet 2 will NOT be responsible for ground handling in Tenerife.

In the UK they are more likely to have some control but as I see it a bus on the tarmac hit by a contractors lorry can not be a JET2 issue.

These things do happen but lets see.

I think the 18p drop was just one of those days.
No selling / no volume.

Had a good run so weak days do happen.

Off topic take a quick look at LPA results next Thursday and I see a jump coming. Please dyor as I am invested there.
Tiger

[shaker44] 11/1/2018 00:27

Tiger, I am unsure what contracts jet2 has with that airport or transport provider but it seems that the litigants lawyers believe jet2 is worth going after.
Seemed to me to be a disproportionate reaction which us why I asked the question, as I couldn't see any other reason for the unusually large drop.
Thoughts?

[castleford tiger] 10/1/2018 20:29

Not sure how jet 2 get blamed for the transfer from plane to airport terminal?

[woozle1] 10/1/2018 18:32

Ding dong. Bell end alert

[tongosti] 10/1/2018 17:34

Sure as day this genius will disagree so let me be very helpful: to answer your amazing question you need to ask every buyer and seller of the stock today re reasons?Still feeling clever?Happy new year to the sane ones on this board!

[tongosti] 10/1/2018 17:32

What a stupid question! Sorry not another way to put it. Rookie time it seems!

[shaker44] 10/1/2018 17:07

Is the fall today related to the potential litigation against Jet2 for the injuries sustained in the airport bus crash in Canaries last month. Or something else?

[shaker44] 09/1/2018 11:51

I think a few high profile prison sentences has put the message across now.

[sf5] 09/1/2018 10:15

I'm not clear how much Dart is paying to resolve the growing food poisoning scam claims but perhaps the epidemic is under control now?
hxxp://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/warning-as-research-shows-19-approached-about-making-holiday-sickness-claim-11364242077631