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[davep4] 25/6/2019 23:48

Buywell3 Telefónica is contracted to provide G2/G3 network communications to the DCC for the Central and Southern Regions for a period of 15 years, (due to delays, I am uncertain as to when the contract period starts). It may well be the Communication Hubs can be upgraded to G4/5, however I suspect that it will be cheaper to maintain the G2/3 network rather than upgrading 24m meters. Also consider, that as the contract has suffered from several years of delay, that the G2/G3 network has to be maintained several years longer than Telefónica expected. The RNS you refer to is partly correct in that 10% of SMETS2 meters are expected to be fitted with the Dual Communications Hub. However the RNS is incorrect in saying that 10% of SMETS2 meters will be located in a ‘not spot’. If that were the case then around 50% of meters would need be fitted with the Dual Communications Hub at the predicted 1:4 ratio, (but that ratio would reduce if ‘not spots’ were as high as 10%). I hope this helps. Further....... (i) G2/3 ‘not spots’ are being confused with Zigbee communication issues, which is an entirely different problem. (ii) If the Dual Communication Hubs were upgraded to G4/5, that would not alter the Connode contract, nor the way in which the RF mesh operates.

[buywell3] 25/6/2019 08:44

I wonder what happens to the meters that have formed the low hanging fruit installation when 2G 3G are withdrawn ? Can't be very long now for 2G I would have thought , presumably they stop working What then ? Just seen this 23/02/18 In the UK and Europe you are likely to see MNOs shutting down 3G first and the frequencies being assigned to 4G to boost capacity. Every device on the market supports fallback to 2G for voice and data services, and 2G has the greatest coverage. Plus the 2G core network is much simpler to maintain than 3G which is a real headache for the mobile operators. Europe has has a lot of machine-to-machine (M2M) devices deployed in the field which use 2G for transferring tiny amounts of data on an infrequent basis. Due to cost, power limitations and sheer logistics these devices won't be upgraded to 4G for a long, long time, if ever. There isn't a business case to do so. buywell adds So 2G might be around for longer than some people think BUT ... telecomms equipment does not last forever , from my experience once over 10 years and it can start acting up. Maintenance and spares then become an increasing problem.

[buywell3] 25/6/2019 08:32

thanks davep4 Perhaps now you can post on the pros and cons of 'not spot' Does that get around the 2G 3G issues ? The way I read this is that 'not spots' mean increased revenue for CYAN from Toshiba Re 'The Toshiba contract was originally calculated to deliver £24m of revenue based on the assumption that 10% of SMETS2 meters would be located in ‘Not-SpotsR17;. However, Energy Suppliers are now finding that dwellings with thick walls, or in blocks of flats, or in areas with poor mobile signal, are contributing to one out of three meters being located in ‘Not-SpotsR17;. Consequently, if the percentage of meters located in ‘Not Spots’ is more than 10%, then CyanConnode’s revenue expectations from the contract will increase on a pro-rata basis. '

[multibagger] 22/6/2019 16:28

Welcome Ireland and Belgium :)

[multibagger] 22/6/2019 16:26

Excellent post and analysis davep4 ! You are right that Telefonica is not going to keep investing in legacy 2G/3G technology - thereby increasing our potential "not spot" business in terms of revenues.

[davep4] 22/6/2019 15:38

buywell2 – 630 buywell3 - 639 RNS Number : 6007B “The CyanConnode SMET2 contract relates to the Central and Southern regions, where approximately 24 million SMET2 smart meters will be connected to the DCC. The Company estimates that 2.4 million SMET2 smart meters will be fitted with RF mesh enabled communication hubs and that the momentum of such installations will increase during 2020.” CyanConnode’s RF mesh technology is embedded into Toshiba SMETS2 Dual Communications Hub, which are supplied under the Telefónica contract. Telefónica provides G2/G3 network communications to the DCC for the Central and Southern regions. The Home Area Network, (HAN), uses Zigbee, (not CyanConnode’s RF mesh technology), and communicates with the In Home Display and Gas Meter. Where the meter is a long way from the location of the In Home Display, or thick walls are in the way, it is estimated that the current Zigbee technology, (2.4GHz), doesn’t work for up to 30% of properties, (for the avoidance of doubt, this makes no difference to the CyanConnode contract). I have changed my view as expressed in post 581, because, (as you state in post 630), G2/G3 is more or less obsolete and it is my understanding that Telefónica has no desire to extend G2/G3 network coverage, which leads me to believe that, over the course of their contract, G2/G3 networks will deteriorate due to lack of maintenance and/or investment. Consequently: (i) Telefónica217;s G2/G3 coverage will not be as extensive as its G4/G5 coverage. (ii) Telefónica is not expanding G2/G3 coverage. (iii) Maintenance and replacement costs may reduce G2/G3 coverage during the lifetime of the Telefónica contract. (iv) It may become more cost effective for Telefónica to increase deployments of RF mesh technology, rather than maintaining a legacy G2/G3 network, in certain locations. The Toshiba SMETS2 Dual Communications Hub, (with CyanConnode’s RF mesh technology embedded), are deployed where a G2/G3 connection is unavailable. For every meter that cannot connect to G2/G3, a further 4 meters are required to form the local RF mesh, and any of those meters with a G2/G3 connection, can act as a gateway to the DCC, for the meter that doesn’t have the G2/G3 connection. Therefore, if 480,000 meters, (2% of the Telefónica contract), cannot connect to G2/G3 and are fitted with a Dual Communications Hub, then a further 1,920,000 meters will also need to be fitted with the Dual Communications Hub to form the local RF mesh. Although Connode pre-sold 500,000 licences, every time one of those licence’s is activated, an annual royalty of approximately 63p is charged by CyanConnode for the lifetime of the contract. Upon the 500,001 activation, a one-off licence fee is billed, (approx £3.6 per meter), plus the annual royalty, (approx 63p per meter). There is also other income from the Connode contract, for example firmware changes and upgrades, etc. I do not believe that CyanConnode will receive any meaningful income from its SMETS2 contract until mid-2020, this is because installers are targeting low hanging fruit first, (it is far easier and quicker to deploy meters that connect to G2/G3 rather than meters that require a local RF mesh network). I hope this helps.

[buywell3] 21/6/2019 08:15

thanks for that key question then how long has the company said it thinks it will be before all those licences will have to be used ?

[multibagger] 21/6/2019 08:06

Hi buywell3, No money made by Cyan at this stage as 500k "notspot" licences have been pre-sold. All those licences will have to be used up before we start making any money. Estimated that overall notspots in the UK will be about 10% (conservative estimates). When notspot smart meters are activated, our "one off" activation fees is £3.60 and recurrent annual fee is ) and about 62.4p recurrent.

[buywell3] 21/6/2019 07:20

How much money does that number of +105,334 smart meters make for the company ? Anyone know ?

[multibagger] 17/6/2019 17:06

UK Smets2 installed: +105,334 smart meters installed since 05 June 2019 17 Jun 2019: 1,213,789

[tightfist] 17/6/2019 14:59

Hi,I was told a long while ago that two chip fabricators were signed-of in both India and China (4 in total). I think I was told those in India were inside EPZ's, nor sure.Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 16/6/2019 05:54

Good morning tightfist and folks ! Up early before heading off to the World Cup and hope the weather holds up :) The Network Integration Cards (NIC) chip/cards (the chip that goes into the smart meter and provides the RF connectivity) are made by Smyrna in India at a unit about 3 hours from New Delhi. Brief video at the header - showing the DCC production. Smyrna, if I recall correctly is a Contract Equipment Manufacturer (CEM) with HQ in San Jose and manufacturing in Chennai and near Delhi. Production of NIC cards there has been ramped up as per RNS announcements. The failure rate/production defects in NIC cards which is quality controlled by Cyan is very low (though not six sigma) but impressive. There is enough capacity to ramp up to meet demand on Indian rollout - no concerns. It is the tuning of the NIC smart meter antenna that is a specialised area apparently. I don't understand that aspect of the Physics. Production initially was at Chennai but moved closer to Delhi for logistical reasons. BI factory (white label partner) is the back up for the NIC chips for RoW - if I understood the information correctly. I gather that Arqiva connectivity is not optimal, so we may be in play possibly - speculation on my part.

[tightfist] 15/6/2019 21:30

Hi MB,Thanks for your reply - if Cyan/Omnitech are perceived as an enabler for the politics of "Made in India" then it makes a lot of sense. If the licensed chips/boards are also MoI then so much the better. And if an offshoot of Cyan can eventually become Indian-owned then even better still..I entirely take your point about multiple disappointments in RoW excepting UK and Scandinavia. The UK SMETS2 cast iron recurring cashflow is becoming increasingly less discounted (ie more valuable), and we all patiently await the associated Not-Spots connection data..Thanks for the description of Hybrid meters, Indian style. It's interesting that hybridisation is taking place at DCC level rather than individual meter level as in the Toshiba SMETS2 meter. For competitive interest, how does the Arquiva meter achieve connectivity in the north of UK SMETS2?Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 15/6/2019 06:51

Good morning all ! Buywell2 to try and answer your query...however this was info from months ago and we have developed some new technology since*. India has piloted tried various mobile technologies including 3G, 4G, LTE and nothing works reliably for its sheer size as country, distances and population density. Roll out of 5G is in the testing phase currently in India. Again, 5G is reliant on mobile technology (which has failed in India for smart metering purposes) due to density, structure of buildings etc. Currently, there are two major technologies in play with regards to smart metering in India. RF mesh has also been installed in some projects by the likes of L&G, SSN etc, though we have the largest installed base. The other technology is based on Cellular/Mobile/GPRS and has made its way into some EESL installations. (EESL has failed miserably with regards to successful implementation of smart metering and effectively "not fit for purpose" - however, it has to be given a face saving way out/exit from a political and cultural context.) From what has been learned in smart metering from various pilots in India is That cellular/mobile based technology be used in areas where RF Mesh cannot be formed due to long distances between smart meters. (*However, this could also now shift given our long range solution (upto 12 Km) RF Mesh highlighted in the Distance Heating contract announced recently from the Nordics.) For more densely populated areas in India, use the RF Mesh + Cellular option = Hybrid solution The Hybrid solution is made up of 2 parts. The first part of the pathway is RF Mesh based from the smart meter to the Data Concentrator/Gateway. So this solves the last mile problem. The second part of the pathway from the DCC/Gateway to the Head End Software(HES)/Network Management Software(NMS) is through cellular/mobile and is GPRS based. So by using Hybrid technology, ie, using both Cellular and RF mesh in a project will reduce number of Simcard requirements for smart meters by about 200 times on average ( as about 200 smart meters at various building can connect to a single DCC/Gateway). A single Simcard at the DCC/Gateway then forwards all the data to the HES/NMS. 193 meter readings are taken every single day from every single smart meter in India. Cyan accuracy is over 99.8% in the collection and submission of this information and evidence has been submitted to the Ministry of Power (and also presented at the Investor Evening in London on 15 May 2019). Links at the top of the page. So if you think about the amount of granular data being generated every 15 minutes, data communication and transmission costs become a very important issue in the longer term and when deployed in scale. A huge and recurrent cost saving. Not at all surprising that Hybrid is gaining more acceptance against mobile technology only and current tenders seem to reflect this shift in direction of travel. Good luck !

[multibagger] 14/6/2019 09:36

With regards to India, I have asked this very question and had confirmation that roll out 4G or 5G technology will not have an impact on the Cyan business there. Both 4G and 5G are mobile based and given the size of India and potential cost of the infrastructure, this is not seen to be a threat to our business. In fact, the most recent RNS was about the pilot of about 3k "hybrid RF" mesh meters which is gaining traction as GPRS based (mobile based) systems are not working in India for various reasons. Also newer tenders which have come out have not specified that they are solely GPRS based (which is what EESL was about) and an abject failure. Links to Powerpoint presentations on the header indicate the scale of the EESL procurement and implementation failure - EESL was GPRS/mobile based. You could email Cyan directly - I am hopeful that they will respond to your technical query.

[buywell2] 14/6/2019 08:19

Thank you multibagger But the answer to my question is of paramount importance to me. Perhaps someone on this thread could email the company please Regarding India , which is indeed a huge opportunity for CYAN Since posting I have just read this: ' the AIRTEL CEO says that the demise of 3G technology is rapidly drawing near' AIRTEL was the biggest mobile operator in India, hence my question. In the link below AIRTEL also states they are going to aggressively redeploy 2G spectrum for 4G services hTtps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/telecom/telecom-news/airtel-to-start-phasing-out-2g-3g-for-4g-says-gopal-vittal/articleshow/66381263.cms?from=mdr India is very rapidly going 4G htTps://www.opensignal.com/reports/2019/04/india/mobile-network-experience The merger of Vodafone and Idea Cellular is set to create India's biggest operator, with some 387 million subscribers across the country and plans to extend its 4G network to over 80% of Indian users. Hence I feel my question is a key one buywell dyor

[multibagger] 14/6/2019 08:11

Welcome to the BB Buywell2 ! I don't know enough on the technical question you have asked...but to me the UK SMETS2 contract is an "add on" revenue stream (though undoubtedly welcome). The Cyan story is largely a take on the Indian smart metering story in my view and will be the workhorse for revenues. Any other contracts coming off, is a real bonus. Share holders have been hugely disappointed before with virtual contracts and virtual revenues from round the world, so I am more cautious about this bit. If I were you, given what has gone before and where we are currently poised, I would think that this is a very good entry point. G Good luck if you choose to invest !

[buywell2] 14/6/2019 08:04

Some noteworthy posters on this thread; whilst I am interested in CYAN : Before considering whether to press the buy button I would like some of you more experienced erudite posters to tell me this; SMETS2 works on G2 and G3 ( it has been stated on this thread ) But my experience of Telecomms has given me a very accurate assessment that most becomes obsolete after around 10 years. For example within the CYAN context ,this has been born out by the emergence of G4 and now G5. So my question is how will SMETS2 operate in just a G4 and G5 environment ? I couldn't see an answer in this link hTtps://www.smartme.co.uk/technical.html many thanks in advance buywell

[multibagger] 14/6/2019 06:58

Good morning tightfist ! Though Cyan has been in India for about 8-9 years, we don't appear to be perceived as a "foreign company" in the conventional, unhelpful nationalistic sense. Anil and his team are well known faces, speak the language, get the business culture and have the contacts in the sector and in the country with bureaucrats and politicians and they are effectively the face of "Cyan" in India. Our manufacturing in country partners are well known and well connected companies in India and are creating jobs and following the "Make In India" credo. So from a political point of view, Cyan is solving problems in India and creating jobs in India - so it is difficult for a politician to say that Cyan is not good for India. So we have a big advantage there in my view, as we are effectively seen as "home grown, reputable and a reliable partner who will deliver what Modi effectively has mandated". He has an iron grip on the politics of the country after his thumping landslide majority (better than expected results). The Indian Administrative Service (IAS) bureaucrats see us as a partner capable of de-risking their deliverables. IAS bureaucrats are usually a highly intelligent, highly educated bunch from top Indian Universities and get the "story" - hardly the case with Indian politicians in general, who just play vote bank politics. It appears Cyan have moved away from sponsoring various Events in India to build brand awareness, as we are effectively the market leader by far - and have the credibility and track record from ongoing successful installations. Anil and his team are very focussed on securing contracts and implementing them - I have every confidence in him and the team. Having spent a fair bit of time, I am very impressed by his phenomenal grip of all aspects of the sector, his prodigious work rate, the work ethic of the Cyan team in India which has a very complementary skill set. It is based on this, that I am confident that India will effectively become Cyan from a revenue point of view. I agree keeping quiet about the 250m proposed installations rather than repeating it, may add credibility. However, the credibility of Cyan in the market has been shot over the years and will take time to recoup. I won't be replying or responding to some posters. I respect that they are entitled to their views, but not of interest to me from any perspective. I am sure that many more of their crew or their multiple identities will arrive, which will be duly added to BB filter. Not worth my time ! Good luck all :)

[stedon] 14/6/2019 00:17

"A man who doesn't do things by halves", so if you are talking BS then it's good to go "The full Monty" ... "The whole enchilada" ....The whole Hog" ..."The whole nine yards" imo

[tightfist] 13/6/2019 21:06

Hi MB, thanks for your thoughts and the business plan link. The main point I was making is that by letting Anil and RoW leader make the running at the London meeting, JC's yawning credibility gap was suitably masked. Within weeks we are back to silly percentage increases and the 2021 250m figure - IMO best to say nothing rather than become associated by reiterating it..The 5% share is indeed conservative based on footprint to date. I would love to be proven wrong but I just cannot comprehend how/why India Inc. would let Cyan technology take a commanding position inside a pretty insular economy......BTW, my prediction is based on everything in India taking 4x longer than initially expected......Cheers, tightfist

[lwaxf13] 13/6/2019 17:42

Imo, some things every single fund raising has in common; keeps the payroll going (phew), keeps other employee benefits going, keeps the bonuses going (do they still pay bonuses to the team with special talents in failure?). These are the benefits that I see from fund raising. No benefit to shareholders that I can see. All my opinion of course and maybe this has really been the best thing since sliced bread for shareholders.

[multibagger] 12/6/2019 17:30

Predictions :) Multibagger: India - Second week of Jul 2019 RoW - Third week of Aug 2019 Dwall: India - By the end of June! RoW - Goodness knows.... Tightfist: First Indian licence deal in the Autumn

[multibagger] 12/6/2019 17:23

Hi tightfist, It would be helpful to refresh the business case from the Powerpoint link at the top of this thread (if link below does not work hTTps://cyanconnode.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/CyanConnode-Final-Results-2019-Presentation-FINAL_15.05.19.pdf I think that on the balance of probabilities, there is a good chance that Cyan could achieve market dominance in India. We are currently the market leader in India in terms of installed and operational smart meters with about 150k smart meters, including the single biggest installation in 1 location to date in Indore (about 70k meters). So we are current market leaders in India by a distance. In the future, given that our tech is OEM for the 3 biggest smart meter manufacturers in India who currently control about 50% market share, we have three shots at every tender virtually....no reason (as yet) as to why we will lose our dominant position. The issue with the 250m smart meter rollout repeatedly mentioned is that Indian politicians tend to overegg (probably in election campaign mode), but there is no way that Cyan leadership can deviate from those announcements. It would be commercially foolhardy to criticise the hand the feeds, even if privately people think it is pie in the sky. Our business plan for India was to gain 5% market share, which is hugely conservative as things stand. Having spoken to key people in Cyan, I think that we could be realistically looking at about 2m smart meter contracts year on year for the next few years from India. Having seen how Anil works, he is not a man who does things by half measures. I think he could comfortably exceed that 2m/year orders. We shall see. Maybe I am getting carried away....but my confidence remains :)