Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 06/9/2019 13:36

I think his point was you might have been pointing him to a pig in a poke 6.75p to 3.75p in a few weeks ain't good pointing is it 14th june 2019 to the present It could be construed as like trying to lead a lamb to a slaughter don't you think ? Not a good look IMO and zero credibility IMO if true multibagger - 14 Jun 2019 - 08:11:53 - 631 of 730 Cyanconnode: Intelligent Solutions for Smart Cities - CYAN Welcome to the BB Buywell2 ! I don't know enough on the technical question you have asked...but to me the UK SMETS2 contract is an "add on" revenue stream (though undoubtedly welcome). The Cyan story is largely a take on the Indian smart metering story in my view and will be the workhorse for revenues. Any other contracts coming off, is a real bonus. Share holders have been hugely disappointed before with virtual contracts and virtual revenues from round the world, so I am more cautious about this bit. If I were you, given what has gone before and where we are currently poised, I would think that this is a very good entry point. G Good luck if you choose to invest !

[multibagger] 06/9/2019 13:01

Your point being buywell2 ??

[buywell2] 06/9/2019 11:02

Re on 14th June 2019 ''If I were you, given what has gone before and where we are currently poised, I would think that this is a very good entry point. G'' On 14th June the share price had just risen to nigh on 6.75p NOY in buywells view a good entry point at all. Just as well as buywell did not take any notice of what you thought multibagger - 14 Jun 2019 - 08:11:53 - 631 of 730 Cyanconnode: Intelligent Solutions for Smart Cities - CYAN Welcome to the BB Buywell2 ! I don't know enough on the technical question you have asked...but to me the UK SMETS2 contract is an "add on" revenue stream (though undoubtedly welcome). The Cyan story is largely a take on the Indian smart metering story in my view and will be the workhorse for revenues. Any other contracts coming off, is a real bonus. Share holders have been hugely disappointed before with virtual contracts and virtual revenues from round the world, so I am more cautious about this bit. If I were you, given what has gone before and where we are currently poised, I would think that this is a very good entry point. G Good luck if you choose to invest !

[multibagger] 06/9/2019 10:50

Hi tightfist, I am no accountant, but if the JC has RNSed to that extent, wouldn't any material change to that forecast have to RNSed ? Also that they don't need to issue equity, but are exploring other debt options as a matter of abundant financial prudence. The investor slide deck also mentions the various Chinese partners by name for the first time....so there appears to be a palpable shift in the emphasis/confidence....hopefully it is not a sign of desperation !! Something is cooking one way or the other, but with time on our hands we can only speculate. Calm before the storm ?

[tightfist] 06/9/2019 10:35

Hi MB,I noted #3269 on the other thread that implied Market Expectations were £7m which Stockopedia also quote as the 2019 REVENUE forecast. As many have experienced here before, Orders is one thing, auditable Revenue (R) is another, and received and audited Cash in the bank is almost the ultimate..It is Cash we need to survive, let alone prosper. I suppose I will rest-easy with O>R in 2019, just wondering how Cyan are credibly going to get to R with only 16 weeks to go.......It it is truly to be R then a licence fee package, or similar, is the only way I have experienced. I must listen to the webcast and see if I can foresee the prospect of a virtually instant Revenue stream through a financing initiative? Maybe CJ has been up this road before at ARM?.Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 06/9/2019 09:17

Hi tightfist, Anil stated he was confident of securing 1 million smart ORDERS in the current financial year and at the time of Investor meet had already submitted bids for 1.935m with several more in the pipeline. He clearly made the distinction between orders and revenue. Also he seemed confident of securing further 2m smart meters orders year on year - a very conservative annual target, given the overall Indian smart meter market being in the region of 230-250m. The Indian elections put paid to virtually most of our Indian H1 revenues - given the pre-election "code of conduct/purdah period" and the long duration of phased Indian elections and announcement of results on 23 May 2019. I believe that the order announced in Sep 2018 (Genus) had been stalled by a new state government (state govt and central govt being two different entities in a federal system of Indian govt) and I got the impression that implementation resumed in the latter part Q2. So I guess that this order could be the one that is expected to bring in most of the Indian H2 revenues. Anyway just trying to piece various bits of the revenue puzzle....

[tightfist] 06/9/2019 07:40

Hi MB,Just seen your post. Unbounded scepticism is the norm, which is entirely understandable. IF there is to be a turning point then we need to be alert to the signals. Like you I was struck by yesterday's declared timescale - not so much by the date but by the style of communication. IMO JC's credibility was shredded a long while ago - but DJ-P and HP (also CJ) remain and IMO wish to protect their credibility and the entire BoD must have signed-off to yesterday's RNS..But how are they going to deliver REVENUE of £7m (not just mere orders, but actually delivered the contract DELIVERABLES) or is there hidden meaning in the word OUTCOME (which the sceptic would say is orders received but deliverables to follow - maybe!)..IF you believe in AUDITABLE REVENUE there should IMO be a transformational event pending?.Food for thought! tightfist

[cancun tango] 06/9/2019 07:08

MB, You ought to know better by now, there's enough previous:Street lighting in ChinaLetter of intentBrazilTNEBIranUkraineBangladeshUK incomeBI incomeEmail about the $11m your uncle who died in a car crash in Nigeria left you.

[cancun tango] 06/9/2019 06:51

Maybe And if it's won, and there's a placing shortly after, what are the timescales for never hearing about it again?

[multibagger] 06/9/2019 05:52

Re Post 706 from 02 Aug 2019 I wonder if the next RNS from India would be regarding Jharkhand contract for about 360k smart meters ? The timelines involved could indicate the confidence for announcement before end Oct 2019.

[realist1950] 05/9/2019 21:01

December 2017: realist195014 Dec '17 - 22:02 - 1765 of 3282 Edit 0 1 0 Reading between the lines and in my opinion only, here is the risk to near-term speculators and punters: As noted above, as the interims show such poor financial performance and such a hefty loss, should H2 (soon to finish) show in any way similarly weak TRADING (that is monies received, banked) CYAN will be producing their worst set of FY results to date. Yes there has been 'progress' in the year just about to end, but the numerous 'orders' are only monetised when actually delivered. They are, to quote JC himself: "purchase orders received BUT NOT YET DELIVERED". Further, many of the 'orders' that make up the much lauded $100M are for numerous roll outs over several YEARS. Further to that, on average, c.50% of the total revenue is from software licensing for the LIFETIME of the contract i.e. deliverable (and thus payable to CYAN) long after the initial deployment on hardware, which in itself I would imagine will take a couple of years to implement. So whilst the order book looks good, remember that the value will not be fully realised until the lifetime of the contract is complete (and that could be many years from now). Also recognise that some of those 'purchase orders' may (or may not) fall through. Nothing is guaranteed.....particularly in the tech space, where things chop and change frequently. I think this is why the BOD talk of improving shareholder value only in the longer term ie, quote Harry Berry: "over the coming years". Has there been slippage on the delivery (and thus payment) phase of the recent orders of the past 16 - 18 months? I don't know the answer to that but as CYAN are, by their own words, waiting right until the end of the financial year before providing any trading update, it's my personal view that H2 figures are again weak and they are waiting for every last £ to come in before saying anything else. I may be wrong on that, but a realist would pause to consider it. This is the near-term risk of speculation here imo. If not much has been delivered in H2, the FY results are going to look rather poor.....and of course that recent cash raise will be eaten away. All imo. DYOR etc. realist195015 Dec '17 - 08:06 - 1769 of 3282 Edit 0 0 0 Good morning. I take your views on board. I think if CYAN are to progress and ultimately succeed, there will be ample chance to buy in and enjoy some of that success. But I question the rush to acquire stock here and expose oneself to all the uncertainty in the meantime. Several years ago cyan won a contract for £1M and it was never delivered and subsequently (and quietly) fell off the books. I'm not saying all recent contracts will follow suit, but there is many a slip twixt the cup and the lip. I would have hoped 'about to enter' (the delivery phase) would have occurred by now (especially for earlier contract wins). After all it'll be two years this coming spring (which is really very close) since the Iranian deal. But this is the nature of the beast with emerging tech and emerging markets. An interesting space for sure, but risk mitigation until it comes good would seem prudent.

[realist1950] 05/9/2019 20:56

My initial post: realist195014 Dec '17 - 00:06 - 1759 of 3281 Edit 0 2 0 As per my namesake.......amid the recent bluster....one should be mindful of the following: Interims (recently announced on 15th September)... Revenue (cash is sanity, after all) of just £573,143 (less than a corner shop) and down from H1 2016 @ £1,029,526. Interim LOSS of -£4,785,258. (almost five million sterling). A reflex jump in response to the comment from the BOD, but I now expect the drifting trend to be resumed until next year's trading update. Cyan is a company in which you need to lock in profits, at least until it becomes a sustainable business, and it is definitely not that yet. All imo as the saying goes.

[realist1950] 05/9/2019 20:49

Good post from Fozdad26 back in 2017: fozdad26 Sep '17 - 14:00 - 1598 of 3279 0 3 0 Multibagger, The blog "research" article that you posted is misleading, inaccurate and amateurish, I really think you should remove it rather than publish it as meaningful research. The article states...... Research Tree Blog - James Rippon This is the bit that caught my attention......"The Group will receive $13m upfront with the majority of deliveries expected in years two and three.." What the RNS states is rather different..... CyanConnode will receive $13 million for the provision of hardware with the majority of deliveries expected to be weighted towards years two and three. In other words, James Rippon has inserted the word "upfront" which suggests that $13 million will be sitting in Cyan's bank account before they have delivered anything, whereas the truth is that most of the $13 million will be due ON DELIVERY of the hardware and most of it will be in years 2 and 3.....hardly an upfront payment. It should also be noted that the hardware part of the deal will be producing very little margin, the vast majority of profits on this order will come from the $16 million spread over ten years for the renewable software licences. It's a great order, no doubt about that but can they deliver? It is now almost 18 months since the previous record order (for Iran) and how much has been booked to sales so far? Zilch, or near as damnit is to swearing. But here's the best bit from Rippon's article.... After five years of flat revenue growth, FY16 saw a sharp spike in revenue as the Group began to commercialise its operations. Net profits, however, continued to swell with this widening expected to continue into FY17 and beyond. Oh yes, this world leading company in a multi £billion market sector saw it's turnover shoot up in 2016 to ….....almost £2 million despite the ever increasing order book (although so far in 2017, turnover looks like reducing again significantly). But hold the press.....what's that? Net profits have continued to swell? Did I read that correctly? Net profits? NET PROFITS?? N E T P R O F I T S ? ? ? Is this guy having a complete giraffe? Net LOSSES almost doubled, how wrong can a research article be?

[realist1950] 05/9/2019 20:33

Multibagger.... Re. the recent RNS.....I wouldn't get too excited about JC 'perhaps the first time' putting a date as to when he hopes an order will arrive. The company has announced so many 'purchase orders received but not yet delivered' over the years that 1) IF they do announce a new order, given past performance, it is now perfectly reasonable to question whether it will ever be delivered and 2) What the heck has happened to the 100M order book that they once bragged about at every opportunity? Each fund raising has come with its own reasoning and rationale. One of the more recent needs/uses for the funds was to actively convert the order book, deliver orders hard and software and so generate revenue. Subsequent HY and FY figures would suggest this hasn't happened and that cash (along with the millions raised over previous years) is all but gone. Does the following ring a bell? It's only two years old....(cough)...... multibagger15 Aug '17 - 07:11 - 1409 of 3275 0 0 0 And another giant order announced today (15.08.2017) - fantastic :) New $10M Purchase Order Extension in Bangladesh CyanConnode, the world leader in narrowband radio mesh networks, announces receipt of a $10 million purchase order extension from its specialist in energy management systems customer for a smart metering contract in Bangladesh, South Asia. This new order more than doubles the accumulated orders from the customer to date to $19 million, with the initial order already having been extended from $5 to $9 million in June 2017. This latest extension for CyanConnode's Advanced Metering Infrastructure ("AMI") solution is for an additional 300,000 units, bringing the total order size to date to 550,000 units. As a result, the order book, representing the value of purchase orders received but not yet delivered, has grown significantly from £13 million at the beginning of the calendar year to £28 million today, which is in addition to the expected £25 million of software licence and support fees from the UK smart metering contract. Strengthened Relationship This latest extension will enable the customer to meet the increased requirements of the geographic territory in Bangladesh that has been awarded to the energy management systems company based in Eastern Europe. The energy management system company, which manufactures approximately 1.5 million utility meters per year, will integrate CyanConnode's hardware with its meters and shipment to their production facility will take place over the next 18 months. CyanConnode will also provide Head End Server Software, which will be hosted by the energy management system company, with annual software licence income being recognised over a ten-year contractual period following successful smart meter implementation. The recurring revenue software licences and annual maintenance contract, which represents approximately 55% of the purchase order value, will be paid annually and charged on a per meter per year basis. Growing Levels of Demand The energy management system company has formed a local entity, a new utility that has entered a long-term agreement with the Bangladeshi Government to provide electricity to consumers. The new utility has a consumer base of four million customers, which provides the potential for further substantive orders. The overall number of electricity consumers in Bangladesh is approximately 58 million. Bangladesh is among four South Asian countries that are struggling due to increasing pressure from rising electricity demand, failure to collect revenue and poor reliability, according to smart grid research specialists Northeast Group. Over the next decade, these countries will make significant investments to modernise smart grid infrastructure, particularly in the metering segment. Smart grid investment is projected to total $8.1 billion over the period 2016-2026, with large-scale funding from the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank as well as bilateral aid organisations. John Cronin, CyanConnode Executive Chairman, commented: "The size and speed of this further order from our partner for their smart meter deployment in Bangladesh highlights the significant opportunity in the region with the repeat order demonstrating the scalability of our business model. Furthermore, the order size and revenue visibility provided by this 10-year contract further reflects the Company's leading position within the smart metering industry across both emerging markets and Europe." Certain information contained in this announcement would have constituted inside information (as defined by Article 7 of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014) prior to its release as part of this announcement.

[multibagger] 05/9/2019 10:23

New updated slide deck: Sep 2019 Https://www.cyanconnode.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/CyanConnode-Corporate-Presentation-Interims-2019_v7-for-web.pdf

[realist1950] 05/9/2019 09:13

Multiblagger, you were wrong. And I was trying to tell you all the way down......much to your dismissal. multibagger12 May '17 - 07:32 - 15 of 719 0 0 0 Still not sure as to whether the trade of 535m went through. If at all it did, then it is a clear statement of intent and a resounding vote of confidence. What would add even more, if there is then a Holdings RNS indicating that it was taken by the likes of Herald Investment / other II. Though 535m traded at 0.19p, not the expected movement in share price....intriguing to say the least. Looking at the chart from a candlestick perspective, it looks like we have had a successful test with a hammer formation and low volumes. This could be a sign that the market is ready for a reversal in trend/sentiment and dare I say even a breakout! The next few weeks could be very interesting and I am of the view that we are at a trend reversal point and could move upwards. Time will tell if I am right or wrong !! Good luck all :)

[realist1950] 05/9/2019 09:10

Two and a half years ago: multibagger10 Apr '17 - 14:01 - 9 of 718 0 3 0 Thanks guys... With regards to CYAN...I feel that the next couple of years are going be very big in terms of growth and credibility....so I have acted accordingly :) Good luck all :)