Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[lwaxf13] 13/6/2019 17:42

Imo, some things every single fund raising has in common; keeps the payroll going (phew), keeps other employee benefits going, keeps the bonuses going (do they still pay bonuses to the team with special talents in failure?). These are the benefits that I see from fund raising. No benefit to shareholders that I can see. All my opinion of course and maybe this has really been the best thing since sliced bread for shareholders.

[multibagger] 12/6/2019 17:30

Predictions :)

Multibagger:
India - Second week of Jul 2019
RoW - Third week of Aug 2019

Dwall:
India - By the end of June!
RoW - Goodness knows....

Tightfist:

First Indian licence deal in the Autumn

[multibagger] 12/6/2019 17:23

Hi tightfist,

It would be helpful to refresh the business case from the Powerpoint link at the top of this thread (if link below does not work




I think that on the balance of probabilities, there is a good chance that Cyan could achieve market dominance in India. We are currently the market leader in India in terms of installed and operational smart meters with about 150k smart meters, including the single biggest installation in 1 location to date in Indore (about 70k meters).

So we are current market leaders in India by a distance. In the future, given that our tech is OEM for the 3 biggest smart meter manufacturers in India who currently control about 50% market share, we have three shots at every tender virtually....no reason (as yet) as to why we will lose our dominant position.

The issue with the 250m smart meter rollout repeatedly mentioned is that Indian politicians tend to overegg (probably in election campaign mode), but there is no way that Cyan leadership can deviate from those announcements. It would be commercially foolhardy to criticise the hand the feeds, even if privately people think it is pie in the sky. Our business plan for India was to gain 5% market share, which is hugely conservative as things stand.

Having spoken to key people in Cyan, I think that we could be realistically looking at about 2m smart meter contracts year on year for the next few years from India. Having seen how Anil works, he is not a man who does things by half measures. I think he could comfortably exceed that 2m/year orders. We shall see.

Maybe I am getting carried away....but my confidence remains :)

[realist1950] 12/6/2019 13:45

Pre fundraising manipulation in my view. I've seen it all before.

I care not what the company says about having enough funds to execute it's business plan, this is a tech stock in an emerging market. Even if profitable, let alone running at break even, companies like this nearly always need more money....toupgrade, made changes, adapt and evolve with a market which is not yet clearly defined.

I fully expect a new and fat and compelling story to accompany the next cash call.

Shareholders were told a few years ago that the money raised then was needed to actually fulfill and execute the orders they had. Latterly to show and demonstrate a certain level of financial strength or robustness.

Next fundraising will probably come sandwiched with an order. "look guys...big fat order....need a bit of money to service this one initially"

This company will imho be asking for more.

Watch.

Buyers of today and yesterday are the sellers of 'tomorrow'.

All in my opinion. ADYOR. Everything written without prejudice.

[tightfist] 12/6/2019 09:00

Hi Multibagger, dpwall;.A few thoughts to throw into the mix. In my post #608 I was musing about Indian market dominance (is that a realistic CC possibility?) requiring a level playing field if the prime IP is acquired by a gorilla then to be embedded in competitors' products. In the western world life can be pretty uncomfortable for the lesser gorillas (I have been there) and they may well shy away from deploying the prime IP?.I accept that India is different in highest level business relationships, but is it that different/tolerant?.I sense that many have been invested here for many years awaiting for Indian market breakout. The caveat about "business plan" adherence is obviously related to revenue, working capital and cash flow in equal measure - wait and see!.FWIW my estimate is that we will land the first Indian licence deal in the Autumn. And finally please can someone have a word in JC's ear to get us back to sensible, CREDIBLE statistics; IMO reiterating c.250m smart meters in 2021 does CC no favours.Cheers, tightfist

[emptyend] 12/6/2019 08:38

....mmmm....proof that "if you snooze you lose". I thought about another 100k or so on the news....did nothing. And look what happens ;-)

[multibagger] 12/6/2019 08:33

Welcome Hongkong !

[multibagger] 12/6/2019 08:29

Good morning dwall !

You are absolutely right regarding the sentiment and legacy that Cyan management are carrying and a lot of ground to cover before we get to consolidation price.

I recall IQE stagnating for absolutely yonks in the mid/late (16/17p) teens and in short order went up to around 170p+.

As I have said before, I remain confident of an excellent return on my largish investment( relative to the size of the company)and time will tell.

Once the market sees that we are making recurrent, sustainable and growing profits with dividends to boot, then valuations can get crazy.

The guys buying in now are lucky/well timed.

If you are in the market for long enough, you do make mistakes with timing and Cyan was one such one in my case - but no damage done.

Good luck !

[dwall] 12/6/2019 08:20

Morning mulitibagger

What i am very interested in is how the market is likely to value the stock once it becomes convinced of the below :-

A. CC do not have to raise any more money this year.

B. CC new orders of circa 1m meters this year (Anil presentation etc) contribute more to the predicted 7m revs already forecast for this year.

C. CC consequenty reach at least break even and possibly show 500k - 1, 2, 3, 4m profit this year?

I thought your earlier post re ARC and BVXP possibly shows some type of marker here?

CC however are still on such a massive negative down trend and held in such contempt by so many ex holders that have lost so much of their investment at present (as can be seen by the reposting of past performance here all the time) that it could have some way to go before it even starts to get near a relevant valuation.

If India orders another 1m meters this year things will change dramitically at long last imo.

So lets wait and see what size and value (especially if attributable to this year) the first of the 1m + orders shows (hopefully due soon).

For a bit of fun my thoughts on timing are :-

India - By the end of June!
RoW - Goodness knows....

GL

[multibagger] 12/6/2019 07:05

While we are watching paint dry and for a bit of light relief, any guesses as to when a RNS with news of commercial contract(s) will arrive from RoW or India ?

My guess - finger in the air !!

India - Second week of Jul 2019
RoW - Third week of Aug 2019

Good luck all :)

[skinny] 11/6/2019 16:59

All starting to look up.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[multibagger] 11/6/2019 16:53

Good to see some positive movement...will it hold ?

I speculate that if L&G have finished their offloading (they don't have to announce as they are already under 3%), then we could sustain and start the journey upwards on news.

Good to see some blue for a change, albeit just reclaiming recently lost territory.

[multibagger] 10/6/2019 14:09

People on holiday possibly as new flag visits from Peru, Thailand and Guernsey...over the last fortnight or so.

Welcome aboard !!

Edit: Welcome Netherlands too - Daag !

[multibagger] 10/6/2019 14:07

Large Investors are not going to sell out when the prospects are so good, just because there is an offer, or at any price - is my point. The offer must make financial sense for the large share holders who have the most votes in any meeting.

Companies that are making about £600k in profit annually (like ARC) at a market cap of about £24m, BVXP with about £6m in profits is at a market cap of about £187m. So once we are profitable on a recurrent basis and given the scalable nature of the business, Cyan will be hugely profitable and the share price will reflect that.

It's just that the market sentiment towards Cyan is hugely negative, as the management have lost credibility in terms of contracts announced and this then not converting to revenues. Once this is rectified and the results demonstrate a HY on HY build in revenues, the market will re-rate.

AGM would have started and potentially concluded by now - so another RNS due today.

[emptyend] 10/6/2019 10:00

...mmmm.....often a mistake to think that a takeout price "must" achieve some sort of positive return for a particular group of long-term investors. But it isn't difficult to think that a successful bid would need to be materially above present levels, given the substantial stakes of some.Put another way, I think it is quite high risk to be short....

[emptyend] 10/6/2019 08:32

Good point re Modi's re-election. I spent a month there earlier this year and it is clear that there is substantial infrastructure investment going on across the country (roads, bridges investment being rather more conspicuous than power distribution etc).Also good points re mindset of corporate buyers etc.....but a company on the cusp of major growth in core markets is always vulnerable, especially to industry insiders who can see the same trends - and especially if those insiders are one step down the value chain, nearer the customer.

[multibagger] 10/6/2019 08:26

Good morning tightfist and all :)

If it were an Indian company to take over Cyan in due course, I would think that Genus would be a front runner. They have the biggest share of the smart metering market in India and the decision making is likely to be concentrated with the founders/their family. Hence, they can just decide to do it, without any cumbersome process and they would have the financial clout to do it in short time.

The Gujarat based Adani Group who appear to have bought the Reliance Energy portfolio could also be interested. They are very highly connected in Indian political circles. I think our Bombay project with Reliance is now Adani Group controlled. They could be another interested party.

L&T is a multibillion dollar conglomerate...so unless the revenues are simply stellar and growing phenomenally, it won't move their revenue needle. They are less likely to be interested in my view.

[multibagger] 10/6/2019 07:40

Good morning all !

A warm up pre - AGM statement release, reiterating that funds are available to execute the business plan.

The statement below is of particular interest...though privately it is acknowledged that 250m smart meters to be installed by 2021 is an impossible ask. It appears that between 6-9 years for implementation is more realistic and that is what Cyan are expecting.

"India is poised to be the second fastest growing adopter of smart metering globally, with the estimated number of smart meters targeted to increase from the current level of less than 0.5 million meters to c.250 million meters by 2021. Following Narendra Modi's re-election as India's Prime Minister, CyanConnode now expect to see renewed activity of the Smart Meters National Programme, resulting in further significant orders for our Omnimesh AMI platform".

[tightfist] 10/6/2019 07:27

I have been a risk-taker within a UK minnow acquired by a US gorilla - your paragraph 3 is a very good reflection of differing attitudes to risk. That is in the western world; does India have the same divergence?.I have often wondered about one of their Indian clients potentially acquiring them. However, are anti-trust laws/practice/belief in India sufficiently strong to ensure a reasonably level playing field across the entire market, offering cost-effective technology access to all? Cyan were careful to mention that the "other" smaller players were part of Phase 2/3..In view of the strategic position that may evolve, IMHO I would think it more likely that an indigenous 3rd Party Indian systems player would be interested, with a history of fair play..All IMO. Cheers, tightfist

[cpap man] 10/6/2019 07:25

10 June 2019

CyanConnode Holdings plc

("CyanConnode" or the "Company")



AGM Statement



CyanConnode Holdings plc (AIM: CYAN), a world leader in Narrowband Radio Frequency (RF) Smart Mesh Networks, will be holding its Annual General Meeting ("AGM") today at 14:00hrs at Trowers & Hamlins LLP, 3 Bunhill Row, London, EC1Y 8YZ.



John Cronin, Chairman of CyanConnode, will update shareholders with the following statement:



"2018 was a transformational year for CyanConnode, seeing revenue growth of 281% to £4.5m, improved gross margins of 452% to £2.7m and a 22% reduction in operating costs to £9.1m (or £8.1m excluding stock impairment, foreign exchanges gains / losses and share based payments).



"Our significant revenue growth in 2018 was attributable to the launch of the standards-based Omnimesh Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) platform, which allows easy integration and deployment into multiple markets. Omnimesh was launched in June 2018 and within six months it had gained considerable commercial traction, especially in our largest market, India, where orders for the period totalled £15m.



"India is poised to be the second fastest growing adopter of smart metering globally, with the estimated number of smart meters targeted to increase from the current level of less than 0.5 million meters to c.250 million meters by 2021. Following Narendra Modi's re-election as India's Prime Minister, CyanConnode now expect to see renewed activity of the Smart Meters National Programme, resulting in further significant orders for our Omnimesh AMI platform.



"During 2018, CyanConnode signed its first licensing agreement with a well-established Chinese meter manufacture, Beijing Instruments, who will incorporate the Company's technology into its smart meters. In addition to a fee paid each time a unit is manufactured, CyanConnode will receive a separate income stream from its Omnimesh AMI platform, which is required to activate a deployment.



"After several years of delay, UK SMIP version 2 is now being rolled out in force, with approximately 200,000 SMET2 smart meters being connected to the Data Communications Company, (DCC) each month. The CyanConnode SMET2 contract relates to the Central and Southern regions, where approximately 24 million SMET2 smart meters will be connected to the DCC. The Company estimates that 2.4 million SMET2 smart meters will be fitted with RF mesh enabled communication hubs and that the momentum of such installations will increase during 2020.



"As announced in March 2019 Paul Ratcliff will step down from the board of CyanConnode immediately following the AGM. I would like to thank him for his contribution and support during his tenure at the Company.



"The first five months of 2019 are performing in line with our expectations and we remain confident that the Company has sufficient capital to execute our business plan. We look forward to updating the market on future developments and take this opportunity to thank our shareholders, employees and advisors for their continued support."

[multibagger] 09/6/2019 07:03

Good morning emptyend !

I recently read "Loonshots" by Safi Bahcall - a very insightful book synthesising physics, management, organisational structure etc. Well worth a read and this book analyses the mindsets of people within small companies / start ups v established large companies amongst other things.

I get the impression from the thinking and rationale set out in the book, that Managers/Directors in larger companies are often not particularly keen on putting their personal careers on the line by taking risks/ seen to be taking risks. They go with the corporate flow and there is not much to be gained on a personal level by taking risks, as they unlikely to personally benefit from the payoffs of taking risks.

The mindset of entreprenuers/startups is by nature and default more risk tolerant.

So I feel that until we get a clear, predictable revenue stream and are firmly profitable, larger companies won't bother with us. Once we achieve that, we will be taken over at a good premium.

[emptyend] 08/6/2019 12:47

I was more thinking that one of the major clients would buy them out, in part because larger companies can tolerate unplanned delays due to a diversified revenue stream...