Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[multibagger] 21/9/2020 15:36

Hi tightfist, Yes - Adani 700k tender as set out is Rs 480 crores which roughly translates to US $65.48 million - as big as they come (so far). (when converted using a forex rate of $USD1 = Rs 73.3) as per Coinmill currency converter.

[tightfist] 21/9/2020 08:00

Hi MB,Thanks for the Adani link, notably 700,000 unit tender ...21/62 is a monster in Lakhs compared with all the others WIP..From the 16/09 Corrigendum advising delay to 24/09 it looks as though the SLA penalty thresholds are being nickel-and-dimed behind the scenes? Possibly related to qualifying Not-Spots? General inference last week was 11%..Last weeks InvestorCall made me thoughtful about the creation of SPV's and ensuing time delays - the way HP described it sounded quite complex. And, if Cyan are successful, how/when it is announced to the market..Thoughts? tightfistPS: Saw your post #1264 on pricing - will look at my notes

[multibagger] 20/9/2020 13:59

Adani 700k tender - Now closing tomorrow (21.09.2020) instead of 14 Sep 2020. Https://www.adanielectricity.com/Tenders Pure speculation on my part....but CYAN tech would appear to meet the technical specifications required by Adani Electricity mentioned in the Corrigenda, based on what we know from our Indore flagship project outcomes. Fingers and everything else crossed - 700k smart meters with 10 year AMC could be worth a huge lot - a decent double digit $ million contract potentially :) Good luck all !

[multibagger] 18/9/2020 18:22

Another trade of 260k...so that makes it 1m shares in 3 transactions over the last 2 days in large deals(relative to CYAN usual transaction size). On 22nd Sep, the Assam and Punjab tenders close. Adani tender for 700k would/should have closed on 14 Sep. So we could have news/outcomes relating to these Tenders in the next 6-8 weeks possibly ?

[multibagger] 18/9/2020 07:51

Yes and another a single transaction of about 241k shares yesterday - larger than the average size of historical transactions. The chart is beginning to confirm the uptrend hopefully - moving on the upside of a "cup and handle." The golden cross was achieved a few weeks ago.... so hopefully market will be more receptive to positive commercial news than in the past, as and when it lands.

[emptyend] 17/9/2020 20:24

Thanks. Someone was obviously inspired to buy 500,000 shares.....

[multibagger] 16/9/2020 13:42

Investor Meet Presentation from yesterday, 15 Sep 2020 available here: Https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/investor-presentation-8

[multibagger] 16/9/2020 06:04

Good morning all :) Courtesy of, and thanks to attrader and Melton John for the link below....excellent article and I can spot some early signs for CYAN ! Of course I am biased ;) Study of top performing stocks over last 5 yrs hxxps://static1.squarespace.com/static/5aaacb57506fbe4636414126/t/5f5ba8c6bba8c27b79d66af7/1599842551653/Conclusion+Deck-+Makings+of+a+MultiBagger_compressed+(1).pdf Good luck all !

[multibagger] 15/9/2020 07:01

Good morning emptyend (and all) The UK SMETS2 roll out which involves CYAN tech for "not spots" is scheduled for a later period in the roll out which has now been extended to 2024. Can't recall when exactly this was mentioned, but I seem to recall JC mentioning this in one of his presentations/AGMs over the years. Apparently, the "low hanging fruit" are what the energy suppliers are going after to try and meet their smart meter installation targets. There is a Q&A session scheduled for this morning at 1030 through Investor Meetings - you could try and raise this issue, if you are able to attend ?

[emptyend] 14/9/2020 15:38

I'm not formally an accountant, though have chaired an audit committee. I'd observe that the timing of actual cash payments is more important than the recognition of revenue.I'd emphasise that point again in relation to an emerging market that is severely impacted by the pandemic.In other news, which UK meter suppliers carry Cyan kit on board? I ask because I am now switching suppliers for fuels and the outgoing supplier (npower) claim they can't install due to distances in the building. Clearly no Cyan kit there!

[multibagger] 13/9/2020 22:12

Many thanks tightfist - though I am not sure I fully understand ! From conversations in the past (about 2 years ago), I got the impression that we make about $14-15 per smart meter NIC card. However, most recently in the BRR media presentation JC talks about 922k meters being worth $24m - or approx $26 per meter, which came a very welcome surprise. Of this about 80% of the revenue is recognised in the first two years and the balance 20% (the AMC bit) over the remaining 3 years. But one would expect significant volume discounts to come, so even if we use my much more conservative figure of $14 per smart meter, will still translate at only £0.71 pa ? You may be aware that there is Q&A session with John and Heather scheduled for Tuesday, 15th Sep morning as per the RNS - so I suppose the accountants can grill them :) Kind regards and many thanks,

[tightfist] 13/9/2020 21:20

Hi MB, .I am from a Business Management background executing multiple projects, each with accompanying DCF models which were our lifeblood..I suppose the first valuation idea you can get is the £6.8m paid by Cyan for the Connnode acquisition on 14th June 2016. IIRC this was mainly in respect of (1) the Connode advanced IP and (2) the prospective income stream from UK SMIP Not-Spots RF mesh Support Fee..I havnt gone off and checked my facts OR PROBABILITIES AND IMPACT OF DELAY, but the prospective size of the prize in India must surely be orders of magnitude greater than UK SMIP Not-Spots which seem to have been estimated at 1.8m units. In gross terms these seem to have been valued undiscounted at £0.71 pa over 15 years which is similar to the figures we are seeing from India where it is only over 5-6 years, but subject to renewal..Hope that helps, tightfist

[multibagger] 13/9/2020 09:27

Good morning and many thanks tightfist ! Yes though I have recognised the value of future, recurrent revenues to the business, I wouldn't know how to calculate it in the manner of an Accountant. Is this the same as DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)which I know is one of the valuation methods that is used in businesses before they are sold on ? You may be from an accounting background (or maybe some others are ? Emptyend), and hence would look forward to your take(s) on it, if you have the inclination and find the time. TIA :)

[tightfist] 11/9/2020 09:36

Hi MB,.Yes, it's no accident that this loan/convertible possibility found it's way into the results/RNS. For me the cash pinch-point was passed some time ago - I was assured sometime ago that working capital could be funded "another way". But I am an optimist!.Something we havn't mentioned is the value of the IP and (discounted) future utility recurring revenue. I have always judged this to ultimately be far in excess of the current EV and is a source of comfort to me..Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 11/9/2020 08:29

Good morning and thank you tightfist for your observations. To me, alignment of the fortunes of the BoD with the small investor is an important part of my investment framework. And though that we are not yet profitable, the BoD share my optimism that things will work out very well. From the corporate world, we all know that even what eventually turn out to be very successful companies, have long gestation and loss making periods. Patience is key and courage of conviction is even more hugely important ! With regards to the "offers of convertible notes" mentioned - on reflection, I think that this was intentionally weaved into the RNS, as various posters on this and other threads have always queried whether the CYAN has the wherewithal to avoid bankruptcy/liquidation ? Also with the rapid expansion of orders, one would expect a proportionate need for increase in working capital - hence the mention,I think, to avoid this speculation possibly ? Good to know we have access to funds, outside of the historical dilution route. Good luck all :)

[techno20] 11/9/2020 08:23

MC - I’ve signed up for the £25 per month option, so gradually working my way through the research available. Is it worth it I’d say depends on the size and profile of your portfolio. I’ve loaded in c.30 holdings I currently have and there’s plenty to read. However lots of the brokers provide coverage free anyway - Cenkos, Finncap, Allenby for example. I like the dashboard however which provides latest prices, rns’s and latest research all on one screen which saves me a load of time switching between sites - so for me worth the money.

[tightfist] 11/9/2020 08:10

Hi again MB,.Following up on #1236, I note towards the end of the 4th September results ".....Should the Group experience such downside sensitivities the directors would first continue to look at measures such as cost reduction and working capital facilities as ways to conserve cash within the business. The Company has offers of convertible and secured loans which it could accept should such a requirement arise....".It's useful to be aware of the last sentence, hopefully the requirement will not arise.......Cheers, tightfist

[tightfist] 11/9/2020 07:37

Hi MB,Thanks for your list. One other compelling reason for me is Skin-in-the-Game by the BoD. I have other shares with comparable levels of ownership - however, recurring incremental buying with their own cash on this scale, and over this duration, seems exceptional. And the background pressuring of the NED is notable..One can be sniffy about their associated options rights - but it still seems exceptional..Personally, I am more orientated towards cash as opposed to profits. Cheers, tightfist

[major courtenay] 10/9/2020 21:38

I was unaware of research tree, I just signed up and it looks like a very interesting resource. It looks like you have to pay in order to gain access to the full report (the latest Arden note, for eg) Does anyone here think it’s worth the money to become a fully paid up member? Thanks in advance. MC.

[emptyend] 10/9/2020 17:51

Thanks for the thought, multibagger. I'm in Scancell for a specific reason but may keep an eye on MXCT for the future.

[multibagger] 10/9/2020 14:32

O/T Hi Emptyend, just saw that you appear to be in Scancell. I used to hold SCLP several years ago but I can't immediately recall why I sold out, albeit at a decent profit. You may wish to check out Max Cyte MXCT - very high potential in my view - multiple irons in the fire. DoI: I hold MXCT

[multibagger] 10/9/2020 09:55

We are not yet profitable as you know. However, a few things stand out for me which gives me confidence of potential profitability in the next year or two. 1. We are actually getting the revenues for contracts "that had been announced", which has been a real problem and was an Achilles Heel. However, we seem to have learned from this and started getting some cash upfront and also securing the same with Letters of Credit. 2. We appear to have become more selective which tenders in the developing world that we actually bid for - for eg. smart metering projects funded (and possibly ring fenced) by Organisations like Asian Development Bank, US AID etc, 2. The operating cost base has been pared down very significantly- we were burning through almost £900k a month, now we are spending ballpark £345k/245k per month (may be the accountants on this Board can help with which of the 2 figures is accurate). 3. We appear to have narrowed our countries of focus to the ones which are generating revenues (not spreading ourselves too thin) - to me now it is Nordics, India, Thailand and UK. 4. India is a possibly as big a market you can get ! And we have the biggest deployment to date in our flagship Indore project - which is being used as a Reference Site / Centre of excellence. I could go on...but you get the background to my optimism :)

[techno20] 10/9/2020 08:37

Morning MB, You encouraged me to do something I should have done an age ago and sign up to Research Tree. A significant amount of the content is free from the relevant brokers, but there’s still a reasonable amount on there that’s not. Unfortunately the Arden note doesn’t give anything I didn’t already know, providing no forecasts or forward guidance / commentary. The key issue for me are how far off is profitability! Even with £20’odd million of Indian orders, given the cost base, it still feels some way off??

[multibagger] 10/9/2020 07:36

Good morning Techno20 (and all) Arden (the CYAN corporate broker) had put out a Research Note on 04 Sep - but no mention of any target price. Not sure if we'll get any other Broker coverage. Good luck !

[techno20] 09/9/2020 22:34

Thanks MB for your response. I’m going to hold back for now and see if the share price drops back a tad over the next couple of weeks. Hopefully we might get some broker coverage in the meantime.