Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[realist1950] 25/10/2019 10:41

The company has stated, on many occasions, over a number of years, when revenue (significant revenues) from previously announced 'orders received but no yet delivered' are due to hit CYAN's books.

But no meaningful revenue has ever been banked, at least not in the quantities needed to prove the business model and avoid the necessity for constant fundraisings.

The company once boasted of orders, accumulated over several years, which amounted to a £100M order book.

To me it would seem that there has been a failure in order execution and for previously announced revenue to have been banked. Indeed, even once apparently significant orders are seldom commented upon......instead replaced by fresh 'orders received but not yet delivered'.

Therefore I shall take any future 'orders received but not yet delivered' with a pinch of salt (if that) owing to the fact that similar past examples would seem not to have been executed.

All in my opinion only. ADYOR.

[realist1950] 25/10/2019 10:30

Fred, in my view it's entirely irrelevant even IF the orders come in.

Why?

1) As we've witnessed, from past form, on multiple occasions, over many years, an order "received but not yet delivered" at CYAN really is no guarantee that the company will ever actually bank any meaningful money (either at all, or in a timely manner).

2) IF significant orders ARE received, I do not believe the amount of money received by the company imminently will be enough to ward off further significant fundraisings.

This is because of a combination of both cyan's business model (revenue split between hardware purchases and recurring revenue streams over many future years) and the nature of the markets they are supposedly trying to enter.

They could announce say a £15M order received but not yet delivered but it would mean nothing until that money, or a decent proportion of it is actually banked. And even if that order was genuine in that the customer was fully committed and contracted in, that kind of money, due to the model, would not hit CYAN's coffers all in one go but would likely be spread over many years.

And we all know that there are a plethora of past orders 'received but not yet delivered' here which have seemingly either been pushed to the back burners or forgotten about entirely.

Indeed the man appointed to apparently convert those orders (and who boasted about doing so in a video posted online) has since left the company.

All in my opinion. Always do your own research etc.

[fred splange] 25/10/2019 09:47

Unbelievable that JC stated this less than 7 weeks ago:The Company is working on several large tenders, both in India and the rest of the world, which the Board believes will result in significant new orders in H2 2019 which the Company hope to announce before the end of October 2019Tragic

[fred splange] 25/10/2019 09:46

Double whammy of period end salary write down and monumental failure to land promised orders en route

[fred splange] 25/10/2019 09:44

T.i.m.b.e.r.r.rrrrrrrrrr

[realist1950] 25/10/2019 09:35

104K sold @ 3.8p

[realist1950] 25/10/2019 09:33

Punters wishing to escape the lock in may have to bail at well under the quoted bid.

Shall I write another critique of this company NOW, or should I wait till......?

[multibagger] 23/10/2019 06:36

Welcome Kilij !

Hope your buying brings on a few RNS announcements !!

[kilijarslan] 22/10/2019 13:25

Got in for a few this morning ?

[profit7] 21/10/2019 16:22

News any day now

[multibagger] 21/10/2019 15:37

Welcome aboard and Salamat Datang profit7 :)

[profit7] 21/10/2019 15:33

12p 12 month high
Could rise on good contracts news

[profit7] 21/10/2019 15:33

12p 12 month high
Could rise on good contracts news

[multibagger] 21/10/2019 11:15

Some buying interest continuing from Friday and let's hope that at least this time it pre-sages some real good news !

[multibagger] 20/10/2019 06:44

According to this article...India is planning to spend $1.4 Trillion dollars on infrastructure over the next 5 years.

[multibagger] 18/10/2019 19:21

Approx 2 working weeks to expected contract announcements as per RNS of 04 Sep. Will there be any announcements at all ?

Some buying interest and share price upward movement on tiny volumes...clutching at straws maybe :)

[multibagger] 07/10/2019 16:49

Interesting chatter on the other thread, as to whether the EESL tender is a retendering exercise or a new procurement - 5.5m meters being tendered this time.

There was information presented at the London Investor meeting in March 19, where it was apparent that the EESL tender had failed virtually totally (it was a multi-million smart meter tender).

[cancun tango] 27/9/2019 08:12

 'The Company is working on several large tenders, both in India and the rest of the world, which the Board believes will result in significant new orders in H2 2019 which the Company hope to announce before the end of October 2019.'So, at least two new 'significant' orders in less than 5 weeks time. It'll be interesting to see how they define significant. And even more interesting to see how long after the announcements comes the placing. 

[multibagger] 24/9/2019 11:43

Thanks tightfist for your valid observations that there are different possible revenue models depending on when and where they are in play.

What I have mentioned is the most recent indicative figures that I have been able to glean from various sources as to what CYAN component of revenues are and are pertinent to most Indian contracts. The figures mentioned do not include the cost of meter or other hardware equipment etc as it is not really relevant to us per se.

I appreciate that there may be other revenue models in the RoW / Nordics etc.

Sorry if I was not clear about this in my earlier post. In my tunnel vision re CYAN revenues, Indian revenues are really what I am banking on - anything over and above from RoW or the UK would be a very welcome bonus.

[tightfist] 24/9/2019 10:24

Hi MB,I acknowledge that you follow CC a lot closer than me, but please can you check your unit revenue figure? The scope-of-supply is surely critical and they have encompassed complete meters (early on, proof of concept), to comms cards, and now towards licences - accompanied by a range of maintenance and AMI communications/billing arrangements.And they all have their own cash flow characteristics, some spanning many years forward.....Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 23/9/2019 07:33

Each smart meter is worth about $25- 30 for us - I imagine for large orders there is very likely to be a volume discount.

There is a US dollar forex volatility element as the electronic components for the Network Integration Card (NIC)- which the communication part of the meter (is what connects the smart meter to the RF mesh.) Components are sourced from Taiwan apparently.

The Contract Equipment Manufacturer (CEM) absorbs upto 5% of forex volatility, but anything more we'll have to absorb.

Typically,

55% revenue in the first year
25% in the second
5% per year x 4

In India, all our payments/receipts are in denominated in Indian Rupees, but converted to USD for consistency across global revenue streams.

So hopefully, if we have a RNS or two landing, we have a ball park figure handy as to what the contract(s) maybe worth.

[multibagger] 20/9/2019 08:57

29 working days till 31 Oct by my reckoning...so maybe next week ?

Good to see tight liquidity and small purchases moving the share price - if and when there is a good commercial RNS, the buying activity should propel the share price upwards quickly.

We'll need a few of those to break even though.

[tightfist] 20/9/2019 08:28

Absolutely! - but not an RNS I am looking for this side of Xmas!

[multibagger] 20/9/2019 08:17

Couple of early morning decent buys 250k and 149k and about £20k in total.

Annual ISA purchase ??

If it is, then a sign of confidence !

Here's hoping :)