Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[playful] 14/8/2016 21:56

I'm still waiting for news on the Bradford opening, but the location map suggest its going to be in Wibsey which is certainly not city centre and from what I remember it holds the title of having the most pubs of any village in the UK.

[nfs] 08/8/2016 16:10

Rage hammer
Thanks for the fast response and informative post
Yes 16%per annum is tasty for sure

[ragehammer] 08/8/2016 15:27

You can find the investor presentation on their website which gives the growth trajectory and also pro-forma store performance information, e.g. revenue and EBITDA (store level). It is 224 stores by 2024. I believe it is likely that the number will be higher than this once the roll-out routine becomes established, however Noel did caution that he'd seen what over-doing a roll-out programme did to an organisation at Lidl (I think he mentioned 80 off stores in a year) and wasn't going to push it so far at Crawshaw.

However I think the numbers you've come up with in terms of valuation in 2024 are not a million miles from my own projections. The thing you have to appreciate is that at 84p a lot of the upside over the next few years is well priced in. So this is a share you should be looking at a very long term hold, certainly well past 2024 IMO. So a 10+ year timeframe.

However over 8 years, even the sort of numbers that you've posted, which you describe as "a bit lower than I thought it would be" represents an approx. 16% return per annum, not including dividends, which is still an attractive investment IMO!

[nfs] 08/8/2016 14:32

Can I check some numbers with people here?I think the plan is to have around 225 stores by end of 2023 or 7 years from nowEach store has about £1m sales which they reach pretty quicklyMarket cap now is about £65m I thinkIf I assume a valuation of £1m mkt cap for each store that's a market cap of £225m or a share price of about £2.80 or 3.5 times that of today approximately.Expediting that growth is possible and the hugely impressive Noel collett has I understand commented that 225 stores could be just a staging post on the road to a much bigger number. Are people here assuming/expecting/hoping for a 3.5 times share appreciation across the next 7 years?Perhaps I am too conservative on valuation and the abilities of the team but that future share price was a bit lower than I thought it would be

[optomistic] 05/8/2016 14:04

A nice steady stream of 'o' buys again today and the spread is down to 1p.
I can see these starting to creep upwards any time soon. A second Greggs in the making here perhaps, it won't happen overnight but it could happen.

[davidosh] 01/8/2016 18:14

No idea which one but Burnley is next....

hxxp://www.burnleyexpress.net/news/local/new-butcher-s-for-burnley-1-7999879

So it should be one of these...

Kidderminster
Gorton
Bradford
Tamworth

[tadders2] 01/8/2016 12:24

Any idea where it might be?

[davidosh] 01/8/2016 11:51

There has been quite a considerable amount of PI buying pressure this morning so far and presumably due to the weekend press article.

I think the 50th store opening is likely to be early to mid September so potentially we could try to set up an investor gathering for the opening and have a Crawshaw champagne lunch with Noel and Charlie the Chicken lol

[playful] 30/7/2016 10:30

I was just about to post the same link..

Another favourite is Crawshaw, a retail butcher chain which also serves hot food to go. That food often comes from its own stock which means there is little waste, which cuts costs.

The Yorkshire-based firm had a tough time after floating on AIM in 2007, just before the recession, but now has 40 stores and is expanding. To help its growth plans it brought in a new boss who spent 16 years at Lidl. Hutchinson likes that even at its lowest ebb it always had cash on the balance sheet. He says: ‘It’s one of the most exciting retail stories I’ve ever come across - it has all of the characteristics of being a future Greggs but no one has heard of it yet.’

[optomistic] 28/7/2016 13:25

Well they have managed to pull 23K in and increase the offer to 83p

[optomistic] 28/7/2016 12:00

The bid was increased by a 1p this morning but it has not tempted any more to part with their shares.

[optomistic] 28/7/2016 10:20

A 64K buy this morning...was that a director buy?

[optomistic] 27/7/2016 17:47

Just four sell trades today and not a buyer in sight, but it does seem that someone is happy to hold the incoming stock. I would not be surprised if stock is being built for another director buy.

[optomistic] 26/7/2016 09:37

Took that last 1K @ 81.9999

[davidosh] 21/7/2016 14:42

No clues but guess which shop in Southport is busiest today..Just one more to go probably in Burnley and then we are at the 50th store !

[playful] 20/7/2016 22:56

I'm doing it on a job share with David

[cockerhoop] 20/7/2016 22:03

Has anyone seen playful and the dancing chicken in the same room ............................................................................................no I thought not :-)

[battlebus2] 20/7/2016 21:48

I'd pay to see that playful but you would need to get some sort of costume.

[playful] 20/7/2016 21:35

You must see the dancing chicken on their Twitter feed today, wonderful to see this type of promotion hopefully he'll be at the Bradford opening with me so we can have a dance together..

[tadders2] 17/7/2016 22:44

IMHO it is not an exaggeration to say that Crawshaws will be fantastic value at some point in the future.

[buffythebuffoon] 17/7/2016 22:05

Hi David,

Some of us will be delighted to be looking in any direction in 10 years time! This rollout will be fantastic value at some point in the future, and people need to consider their personal circumstances to see whether it fits theirs. As for your 'hundreds of reason why someone.....', that's up there with Nick Faldo's comment today that 'there are a thousand ways to play that shot'.

I've told my kids a million times not to exaggerate. :-}

Buffy

[davidosh] 17/7/2016 18:59

Analyst....You can speculate on hundreds of reasons why someone does or does not make a purchase but as lots of fund managers have been buyers and as the new non execs wife purchased last week we certainly know there is demand for the shares.

It is a food roll out story so just like Pizza Express, Dominos, Greggs and many others before them....Crawshaws could become a national household name and it will seem very good value when looking back in five or ten years time.