Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[playful] 18/3/2014 08:15

Not yet but I'm hoping she will buy our sausages

[battlebus2] 18/3/2014 08:06

BBC business news from Kirkgate market Leeds, anyone see Crawshaws :))

[playful] 17/3/2014 23:35

I have always advocated Booker distributing Crawshaw award winning sausages to the independents and I still maintain this belief to be mutually beneficial...

[thekida] 16/3/2014 23:24

The way forward isn't in "bangers"....I don't think the online idea is an idea as I don't think it would work, for instance why order sausages in cornwall when you can get them from your local butchers?.....mention the word "preservativeS" in meat and its a turn off for most shoppers...bit like rump steak, I avoid eating rump steak as if the beast gets an injection that's where it normally gets it in the rump. Crawshaw is an interesting play but I think the way forward is by opening more shops and selling quality meat at very cheap prices.Shoppers are very fickle one whiff of poor quality and they don't come back

TK
Ps only my thought of course

[garbetklb] 16/3/2014 22:57

Hi David

I'm afraid I don't think it's a starter for several reasons:

- I've not yet tried Crawshaw's sausages, but I doubt they are anything v special & most butchers seem to have award winning sausages(!) and with Crawshaws value-quality focus, I suspect they are good, but not exceptional. But, in the interests of research, I'll try to pick some up a week tomorrow when I should be passing a store and (purely in the interests of research) will test them!

- as the source of Crawshaw's competitive advantage is the supermarket chains' inability to predict their requirements, I think it would be better to keep a low profile and not try to sell them something they have been unable to take in another guise!

- the supermarkets would want to tie down price & quantity (just as they do for meat) which is just what Crawshaw can't do. I'd not be surprised if there are times that Crawshaw don't sell sausages because the appropriate meat wasn't surplus that week. My impression (and I'll try to remember to ask) is that Crawshaws sell whatever happens to be available at a good price that week.

Anyway, worth storing up to ask at the AGM visit.

Garbetklb

[davidosh] 16/3/2014 22:50

Sausages usually have enough preservative in them to give a reasonable length of time before the sell by date and are not the same problem as ordering a range of fresh meat online. I was more thinking about a Crawshaws brand being available nationally for everyone via supermarkets or an online service.

It would mean Crawshaws have to step up the volume production of the sausages but could be a nice problem to have and would be a great advert for the name and brand. Look how Thorntons chocolates started in their own shops but are now in every supermarket as a premium brand and there are many other example. Harry Ramsdens fish and chips another !

[thekida] 16/3/2014 20:42

Davidosh......were they eating crawshaws meat at the BBQ? .....online orders? meat goes off very quickly cant see that working to be honest unless you are near enough to a crawshaws outlet further a field would be a no no imho

TK

[davidosh] 16/3/2014 17:04

It is wonderful BBQ weather and not even the middle of March yet ! My middle daughter has about 20 friends round this afternoon and they are in picnic mode on the lawn with meat, chicken and sausages on the BBQ...I do think Crawshaws could take advantage by getting their award winning sausages sold in all the supermarkets or having an online order service via Ocado or whoever wants to get them listed ?

[playful] 13/3/2014 14:08

Interesting comment from Morrisons in their annual results, it said of the discount market challenge: "It is currently worth £9.5bn (up 20%) over the prior year.

[playful] 12/3/2014 22:32

Looks smashing...

[battlebus2] 11/3/2014 21:53

Thanks playful, i knew they would be a takeover target but it came much sooner than i had thought so a nice surprise for a Monday morning.
O/T spitfire on the move for you, is there more to come there?

[playful] 11/3/2014 21:40

The Crawshaw AGM attendance has doubled every year since I have been attending and going on what David tells us it's going to double again!!

The weather here in Yorkshire is sizzling so roll out those BBQ packs

BB2, well done on your bananas...

[davidosh] 07/3/2014 13:25

For the record I intend to attend the Agm and encourage a large group of investors to go up to Yorkshire for the day from London. We hope to see a couple of stores and the distribution centre whilst up there and may even visit another company in the same location and stay overnight if necessary as it will be late June and generally a good time of the year for travelling and doing a visit. I do not have a confirmed date but based on last year please keep Thursday 26th June free.

[shanklin] 07/3/2014 11:49

LOL bb2, on that basis, perhaps WH Ireland should suggest CRAW will be going out of business :-)

[battlebus2] 07/3/2014 07:51

Always better to err on the low side as i don't like to be disappointed :))

[shanklin] 07/3/2014 07:32

davidosh, IMHO the current approach to broker estimates here is completely ludicrous.

[drsmessguide] 07/3/2014 04:50

Lazy rearch possibly, pluck a revenue figure out of the air based on what we know already, look at the likely eps this year, perhaps by reading your entries on advfn, add 0.1 to ensure over achievement, collect wages

[davidosh] 06/3/2014 23:14

I do not work out PBT on a per store basis but clearly there have to be benefits of scale. At Mello in November Richard Rose said he expected new stores to be larger than the current average and so I am expecting revenues for each of the new ones to eventually be hitting £1.25m to £1.5m turnover in a full year.

Mind you with like for like increases at 20% currently it could be argued that the average is rapidly moving towards £1.25m across the estate anyway. With the current growth rate even reduced to high single digit and say three new openings by Jan 2015 I really fail to see how turnover will not reach £25m. The WHI analyst is going for just £23.6m and then forecasts just 1.4p eps up from 1.3p that he has given as latest guidance for the year just ended !

I really cannot see a 12.5% increase in revenues delivering just 8% earnings increases when in 2013 we will have seen an 11.5% revenue increase deliver eps up from 0.3p to 1.3p. Go figure !? The 2014 eps figure will begin with a 2 or I will attempt to eat a Crawshaws hatful of their award winning sausages !

Under promise and over deliver is a great philosophy but if taken to these extremes it tends to be rather pointless. What reason can they give for such mediocre growth in earnings estimates with margins increasing all the time?

[drsmessguide] 06/3/2014 20:35

Davidosh

Hi

interested in your estimate of PBT for each new store. If 1m revenue per store and fixed central costs, I reckon about 100000-150000 per store at least will fall to bottom line

[battlebus2] 06/3/2014 19:13

Yes finishing at new highs can't be bad :))

[chrisis33] 06/3/2014 18:29

Excellent update today ... and thanks garbetklb for your very interesting post.

[davidosh] 06/3/2014 16:48

Garb....How about copying it over to this thread to keep it active

[drsmessguide] 06/3/2014 16:33

Thanks Garb

[davidosh] 06/3/2014 15:11

Gengulphus...that makes two of us at least. I had told my broker last week to put a price in the market at 25p and would take any on offer but it started reversing and ticking back up on Monday !

I am extremely confident in my long term position here and although I have a decent shareholding if anyone wants to sell a few and the price has fallen back to near that level then make sure you try me first and I will meet you at the mid price.