Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[gengulphus] 06/3/2014 14:40

What a thoroughly annoying trading update! Why can't they have let the share price drift a few weeks more and let me pick up some more shares sub-25p??? ;-)

Gengulphus

[garbetklb] 06/3/2014 13:39

Holding a fair few of these for self & wider family (for IHT mitigation), I've dropped into a couple of shops - and visited the Mansfield shop last Thursday.

Mansfield town centre is pretty depressing - plenty of boarded up shops & the market is (according to one of the Crawshaw guys) a shadow of its former self - due to pricing of pitches by the Council. There are other butchers - one of which has branched out into exotic meat as its USP. Was told that this store sold well - and better than Chesterfield, where the market stallholders had decamped to.

The shop is pretty welcoming - although I was there late in the day and much of the hot food had been sold, so I couldn't have a hot pork roll, which i've found both v tasty & good value in the past. There was a guy outside calling out the bargains, but seemed to be winding down. Main aim seemed to be to shift a excess of cooked chickens which were going for £3 when I arrived, £2.50 when I left.

I spoke to the manager & one of his assistants - both were friendly, had been there since the shop opened in 2008 and gave the impression of being competent. Again, staff turnover low - seemed happy with Crawshaw as an employer.
The packaged meat looked good and seemed competitively priced - I bought packs of (500g each, I think) sirloin steak, rib-eye steak & lamb leg steaks for £5 each, but £12 for 3 (not sure if that was a standard 3 for £12, or a deal). The meat all looked & tasted good - sirloin had a bit of gristle. Most of the meat is cut & packeged on site - and customers being able to watch was stated as an attraction. Praise given to the buying ability of Colin Crawshaw.

The shop had just had a new counter installed for the sale of filled sub rolls - most of the fillings cooked & prepared "upstairs". These are to appeal to a younger audience - they are a bit smaller than the ones from Greggs (I think - could have been Subway), but significantly cheaper. To me, they didn't look especially appetising - meat/sauce filling with no tomato/salad. I had a ham/cheese one, mainly because nothing else appealed visually; it was OK, but not especially good and the (optional) mayonaise tasted very thin & cheap. Maybe a poor choice, but not v appetising and not a patch on their hot rolls with gravy. They had quite a lot left over - comments were that this was a new line as of a few days before and that what was left was a small % of what they started with. When I next drop in on a store, I'll make a point of looking/asking re these as I'm far from convinced.

Interestingly, neither of the guys knew anything about the share price or the significant change in share ownership recently.

I thought of buying a few more earlier in the week at 25p offered, but decided to wait......!

Interesting to see the price rising ahead of this morning's trading statement....

Anyway, I'm happy with our investment, mainly sub 10p and remain a v happy holder.

Garbetklb

[playful] 06/3/2014 12:52

It is plastic protective covering you just peel it off when everything is finished.

The new shop is due to open on 21st March

[briangeeee] 06/3/2014 12:03

I suspect it's plastic protective covering on the panels.

[drsmessguide] 06/3/2014 12:00

I took some profits at 31p last time around and wish I had kept them, no plans to do anything but add now. Those who bought at 26p in the last 24 hours are 20% up already

[davidosh] 06/3/2014 11:58

Are those the colours generally used in the stores or is that just the protective sheeting and not the final colour scheme ?

[playful] 06/3/2014 11:45

I am so looking forward to our results day.

Sheffield store coming on nicely...

[shrout] 06/3/2014 10:50

I've finally decided to take some profits. May live to regret it, but it's all getting a little bit heady. Still hold a decent chunk though.

Well done to Crawshaws.. it's a great story. And many thanks to all the excellent contributors on this thread.

[davidosh] 06/3/2014 10:39

I guess underpromise/overdeliver has become the norm. It brightens my day when these regular trading updates have to be issued anyway ! That is now three in four months lol

[shanklin] 06/3/2014 10:39

davidosh

Aah, I see you've posted again (2680). Your numbers for 2015 seem much more realistic than those of the analyst.

Thank you, Martin

[shanklin] 06/3/2014 10:37

davidosh

Thank you for sharing those numbers with us.

I can't say I'm convinced that those numbers are in any way realistic.

Best wishes, Martin

[davidosh] 06/3/2014 10:36

The year just ended figures he expects are now pretty much bang on in revenues and eps that I had predicted three months ago. However his 2015 forecast to next January leave so much in the tank for another series of positive trading updates that I find my current expectation hits his full year by the interims in my best case scenario. The Agm will be a great day out and I really encourage you all to join me in meeting and thanking management. They deserve heaps of praise from the shareholders.

[drsmessguide] 06/3/2014 10:31

I wonder sometimes at these forcasts, they are deliberately conservative so as not to cause a sell off if too racey. But the share price target has already met and one wonders what point they serve. To pitch next year at 0.1m more than this seems frank nonsense

[davidosh] 06/3/2014 10:27

Here is the summary of the morning update from the analyst at WH Ireland...

As a result of this morning's update, we have raised our FY 2014E revenue forecast
by £0.2m to £21.0m, which in combination with slightly lower costs than previously
expected, leads to a £0.2m increase in our PBT expectation to £1.0m. Our EPS
estimate rises by 32% to 1.3p, also benefiting from an expected lower tax charge of
25% against the 29% previously anticipated. For the time being, we leave our FY
2015E PBT estimate unchanged at £1.1m but raise our EPS forecast by 7.7% to 1.4p
driven by the decrease in the tax charge. Given the positive momentum being
demonstrated, we raise our share price target to 32p (from 25p) based on an FY
2015E EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.0x.

[drsmessguide] 06/3/2014 08:01

Oh my look at the open

[drsmessguide] 06/3/2014 08:00

David was more conservative but todays announcements suggest I may be nearer the mark. If I am it will be the first time I have been more correct that david on a share (:

[drsmessguide] 06/3/2014 07:59

see my and davidosh estimates above

[battlebus2] 06/3/2014 07:58

Shanklin the broker has 0.8 and 1.1 for 2015 but we are surely going to smash those figures.

[shanklin] 06/3/2014 07:46

LOL, I'm not complaining too much. I just wish WH Ireland would provide some forecasts which have some relation to the real world rather than being of no value whatsoever.

All IMHO, DYOR.

Cheers, Martin

P.S. Anybody any idea what sales and PBT might be for y/e 31-Jan-14 or indeed for the current year?

[battlebus2] 06/3/2014 07:40

Should see us well into the 30's and staying their this time round imv.

[drsmessguide] 06/3/2014 07:23

Hi shanklin

It came across as 'you remember the fantastic figures in the last update? Well were going to exceed even those and this year is great too!' Otherwise updating so soon after the last one is fairly unnecessary.

I predict up 7% today, anything less than that and I'm wading in for yet more

[shanklin] 06/3/2014 07:07

Nice update... again.

However, given the WH Ireland broker forecast seems to be ludicrously low, it would have been nice if the update had provided some guidance on total sales and PBT. As it is, I have little idea what this update really means other than that trading is going well.

[battlebus2] 06/3/2014 07:04

Trading Update.. Fantastic job all at Crawshaws.

Richard Rose, Chairman of Crawshaw, the meat focussed retailer, provides the following update on current trading:

"On 6 January 2014 I reported on an excellent Christmas trading period, which would result in profit for the year being 'materially higher than current market expectations'.

I'm now delighted to report that in the weeks since then, leading up to our year end 31 January 2014, both sales and margin were particularly strong. As a result we now expect our profits for the full year to 31 January 2014 to be further ahead of current market expectations.

I am also delighted to report that strong growth has continued into the new financial year.

Our plans to open additional shops are progressing well and we expect to open a new high street store towards the end of March 2014."

We expect to announce our full year results at the end of April, 2014.

[battlebus2] 04/3/2014 16:50

Yep great to see a positive day across the whole market.

[playful] 04/3/2014 15:29

We are moving in the right direction...... roll on results day!!