Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[battlebus2] 24/11/2013 11:11

I totally agree davidosh, no one can say this share won't hit 50p, anything can happen and does happen in the world of the stock market. If you've been around long enough like me you will have seen what looked impossible happen over and over again. Who would have thought at a time when Schroders were dumping shares and sales were falling and we were closing market stalls etc along with an economy that was on it's knees we would see the share price rise 500% from the low point. I must admit even i had doubts but with the right ingredients along with Richard Rose's impressive track record we are now in the enviable position of having virtually no debt, lfl increasing 18% and new stores opening. Who is to say if the new venture Home Kitchen takes off that in a few years time we won't have 100 shops across the U.K. with room for growth to put us on a par with the likes of Greggs or Starbucks etc. Sounds fanciful, yes of course it does but more importantly it's not impossible all it takes is a little imagination imv.

[davidosh] 24/11/2013 01:09

BahrainChris 22 Nov'13 - 23:31 - 2385 of 2389 0 0


@Shanklin

I like CRAW but I can't imagine the circumstances where it could be worth 50p a year or two out. (Perhaps that's because I've not got a very good imagination!) Chris


BahrainChris,

Really !! You need a trip to the stores.

I only became a shareholder in March and had never heard of Crawshaws before then and I am a northerner. However you cannot argue with their last four reported like for like increases.

To 31/1/13... up 3%
To 31/7/13.... 5%
next 8 weeks..10%
next 7 weeks..18%

Those are totally same store growth in turnover figures and that is allied with improvement in gross margin too.

Add to that the fact that Crawshaw will be opening NEW stores and increasing revenues between 10 to 15% annually from those expansion plans and then work out what that does for overall earnings ?

I am going to merely hope for a continued like for like growth rate at 8% not 18% which is sensational. That alongside just 12.5% expansion growth for three years would see turnover double and that would have an amazing effect on the bottom line if there are no borrowings to pay for and the gross margin holds up so well.

In that scenario I fail to see how 50p would not be with us after just two years as the markets look forwards and delivering that in the first two and promising more of the same in the third would easily back up a 50p target !

However why stop there ?.. and those figures are conservative with the current trend being significantly better than that. Just build your own business model with all the variations and see how all the metrics are improving here.

I will not be selling until there looks to be a problem with Richard Rose completing his own sensible and very deliverable expansion plans. That looks a long way off. Why would anyone NOT want to back the strategy, the growth plan, and the clear route to execution available to Crawshaws ? They are probably only within the shopping distance of 5% of the UK at present so lots more growth to go for !

[cockneyrebel] 23/11/2013 11:03

Lovely bowl on the chart here too Shanks - right up to 23p which might not be that far away imo.



CR

[shanklin] 23/11/2013 07:26

BC

You're welcome to replace 50p with 35 or 40p :-)

The point I was trying to make is that with operational gearing and improving operational management, CRAW could grow EPS strongly over the next year or so, making 13p appear very cheap... ...especially for what is essentially a relatively simple-to-understand business that we should all be able to comprehend.

Given what was said at the recent Mello presentation, we also know that CRAW's expansion will be based on solid self-financing, rather being financed by cash provided by city "advisors" wanting to create an "optimally financially engineered" (or overly geared to you and me) business. On that basis the downside from current levels should be fairly well protected.

Whilst I completely missed CRAW at 2 or 3p... ...well done to those who got in then... ... we now seem to have visibility of a much more solid business, where EPS growth seems much more likely than was the case when the share price was lower. As such for me CRAW is cheaper now than it was then.

Happy to hold here having built a decent sized position.

Cheers, Martin

[bahrainchris] 22/11/2013 23:31

@Shanklin

I like CRAW but I can't imagine the circumstances where it could be worth 50p a year or two out. (Perhaps that's because I've not got a very good imagination!)


Chris

[chrisis33] 22/11/2013 19:40

Great write up. He wants to build it into a £100m turnover business. Interesting.

Ps. Definitely not selling ANY more.

[battlebus2] 22/11/2013 16:26

Yes forgot to mention that a very good write up indeed.

[davidosh] 22/11/2013 16:18

I am just back from meetings in the City but just to say John is a very good guy and although he has attended many of the Mello Central events that was the first Mello Monday event he has been to. He certainly enjoyed it and the one and a half hours of presentation and Q&A makes it much more intense and informative than the shorter presentations in the City.

That was a very good review of the investment case btw

[protean] 22/11/2013 15:24

No probs both.

John's blog definitely worth following. He makes some good picks and all his trades are recorded on the site.

[chrisis33] 22/11/2013 15:23

I've been selling a handful too of late. But the share price rise continues undeterred. Clearly very strong demand as suggested by Davidosh.

[battlebus2] 22/11/2013 15:20

Thanks protean very interesting, never heard of the guy before.

[shanklin] 22/11/2013 15:20

protean

Thank you for posting that link. Interesting stuff.

[battlebus2] 22/11/2013 15:10

Another tick up. I'm buying mine back lol.

[battlebus2] 22/11/2013 13:45

Buyers snapping up any loose shares which is good to see.

[shanklin] 22/11/2013 10:25

davidosh

I just bit the bullet given the much better visibility provided by the trading statement and more than doubled my holding a couple of days ago

IMHO, your tens of investor contacts have completely lost the plot if they want to save 1 or 2p on their buying price now when it will probably multi-bag from current levels. In a year or two's time they'll see the price at 50p and be gutted they can't get it at 48p, when they could be buying now at 13p.

All IMHO, DYOR.

[battlebus2] 22/11/2013 10:20

I'll keep that in mind davidosh if i intend to sell any more.

[davidosh] 22/11/2013 10:04

I have tens of investor contacts looking to get in if there is any slippage in the share price as they like the long term story and the CRAW profile has been raised significantly so I doubt you need to worry about selling a few these days.

[playful] 22/11/2013 09:52

Fair play to you – I don't intend selling anymore and I'm looking forward to visiting this new store next week and spending some money.

[battlebus2] 22/11/2013 09:17

Morning playful yes i took the opportunity and sold 180k but i intend to hold the bulk of my investment. I believe the market were glad of the shares as the price went up after the trades went through.

[playful] 21/11/2013 23:31

BB2 you have been a seller recently? I must admit I have joined you but no reflection on their future prospects...

[chrisis33] 21/11/2013 22:39

The search box doesn't return a thread on an android phone. Took a quick look at the latest results. Certainly worthy of a deeper read.

[battlebus2] 21/11/2013 21:38

cssg is the epic chrisis33.