Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[playful] 08/1/2014 11:27

I am smiling today:o))

If we are above 30p for the AGM you must come and join the celebrations BB2 it wouldn't be the same without you

[battlebus2] 08/1/2014 10:07

Added a few more :))

[battlebus2] 08/1/2014 08:58

Good to see another tick up this morning, shares harder to trade too.

[cyberbub] 08/1/2014 00:15

Thanks for your tips Chrisis33, I have had a look in on a couple and am thinking about them, though I think I have somewhat missed the boat, as with CRAW!

As a return favour, you might like to consider DQE? Profitable and on a current-year p/e of around 3, with profits expected to rise rapidly in the next couple of years as previous investments start to bear fruit, and a maiden divi promised this year. Currently on a pullback. Quarterly results due in 4 weeks. Indian companies not for everyone though, and it is not without risk!

NAI DYOR

[battlebus2] 07/1/2014 19:35

You never know :)) When you reflect back at the amount available to buy at 2p what a pity i didn't have the conviction to buy a significant holding then. Holding around 2% now.

[playful] 07/1/2014 19:06

Yes BB2, another great day here and well done whoever purchased the 100K as it increased the share price considerably.

You never know we might see a new substantial shareholding announced...

[battlebus2] 07/1/2014 18:22

Nice rise at the close today.

[battlebus2] 07/1/2014 07:43

From Paul Scotts blog which is a great read every morning.
hxxp://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-6-jan-2014-staf-craw-80275/

-Listed butchers Crawshaw (LON:CRAW) has issued another very positive trading statement. Remarkably, their like-for-like (LFL) sales growth has accelerated from the 18% reported in the seven weeks to 14 Nov 2013, to 21% LFL sales growth for the 7 weeks to 29 Dec 2013. That's really impressive!

Gross margins are also up, and "costs very much under control", so they conclude that

we now expect the out turn for the full year to end January 2014 to be materially higher than the current market forecast.

Stockopedia shows the current year (ending 31 Jan 2014) EPS broker consensus forecast at 0.5p, increasing to 0.7p next year. So if they achieve say a 50% increase on forecast, that would take this year to 0.75p. So at 19.6p the shares would be on a PER of 26, which looks pricey to me.

However, if such strong trading performance is sustainable, then there would be a follow-on benefit to 2014/15 figures, to say 1p or more EPS. The shares still wouldn't look cheap even then, so I wonder if the valuation might now be up with events? It's impossible to say without seeing detailed forecasts, but certainly a rise from 4.25p to 19.6p in just six months is a remarkable result for investors, so well done to those of you who spotted the opportunity.



EDIT: I have since seen revised forecasts for Crawshaw from broker WH Ireland, who today said;



...we raise our FY 2014E PBT expectation by £0.3m to £0.8m and given the positive progress that has been made, in combination with the restoration of the opening programme, we raise our FY 2015E PBT forecast by £0.5m to £1.1m. We maintain our Buy recommendation and raise our share price target to 25p (from 15p) to reflect the actions that have been taken, the reinstatement of the opening programme and the momentum being demonstrated.



So if they make £1.1m profit in 2014/15, then taking off say 23% Corp Tax, that's earnings of £0.85m. With 57.8m shares in issue, that works out at EPS of just under 1.5p. Therefore at 19.5p the shares would be on a forecast PER of 13, which is looking a much more sensible valuation in my opinion.

- See more at: hxxp://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-6-jan-2014-staf-craw-80275/#sthash.qwjvPN9W.dpuf

[chrisis33] 07/1/2014 07:34

Thanks Playful. I may do just that. Great to see CRAW in the press.

[battlebus2] 07/1/2014 07:05

Famous at last playful. May attract a few new buyers as well as shoppers.

[playful] 07/1/2014 06:19

Well worth buying a copy of today's Daily Mail as we get a lovely mention similar to the Yorkshire Post, but with obviously a greater audience.

[playful] 07/1/2014 05:51

Crawshaw's festive success as customers spend more

hxxp://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/business-news/crawshaw-s-festive-success-as-customers-spend-more-1-6354678

Analyst John Cummins, at WH Ireland, raised his 2014 pre-tax profit forecast by £300,000 to £800,000.

"Given the positive progress that has been made, in combination with the restoration of the opening programme, we raise our 2015 pre-tax profit forecast by £500,000 to £1.1m," he said.

"We maintain our 'buy' recommendation and raise our share price target to 25p to reflect the actions that have been taken, the reinstatement of the opening programme and the momentum being demonstrated."

[chrisis33] 06/1/2014 23:40

Sticking in here looks as good a place for my money as any right now. Profitable stocks with a very low cap make a good starting point in my view. AIEA, STY, ETQ, R4E worth a look (edit - not suggesting they'll 5 bag :)) But then I hold all from lower levels and am biased.

CRAW still looks a good shout at the current price on today's news.

[cyberbub] 06/1/2014 23:04

Well done to everyone who go into this under 5p... not including yours truly... sigh...

Anyone got any other tips for 5-month 5-baggers? Thanks very much...

[davidosh] 06/1/2014 15:07

Woweeee...this revenue growth just gets better and better and if you add one new store onto the like for likes then it will be coming close to 25% overall if continued from here at the same pace.
The increased margins are fantastic news too. If only this update had come last week then CRAW may have won the TMF competition and cup but I guess us happy holders will settle for the 21% instead !
I have been a continued and regular buyer since the Mello two months ago and added again this morning so I am now very close to notifiable but very comfortable with that as this company is well run and delivering in increasing margin and revenue terms so new stores are coming at just the right time.
For sure 30p is a very realistic target within the next few months at this rate but 50p is my expectation during 2015 and I am a long term investor so can relax with these excellent updates.
Well done Richard, Lynda and all the very hard working teams at Crawshaws.

[chrisis33] 06/1/2014 13:21

Agree 30p looks a good initial shout based on c. £3.8m revenue improvement at gross margins probably over 44%. Do the maths.

New retail store sneaked into the update too.

[battlebus2] 06/1/2014 13:00

BUTCHER shop chain Crawshaw Group today said it had seen a rise in sales following the Christmas trading period and expects strong end of year results.

The Rotherham-based group which operates around 20 butchers shops and two meat distribution centres covering Yorkshire and the Humber, Lincolnshire and Nottinghamshire, said management actions are continuing to deliver a progressively improving result, with like for like sales for the seven weeks to December 29 2013 up 21%.

The group said that with costs very much under control, it expects the out turn for the full year to the end of January 2014 to be materially higher than the current market forecast.

Crawshaw also announced it has opened a further retail outlet, in the new Sheffield covered market, which is trading well, and said it is close to completing the lease on a retail premises, also in Sheffield.

[battlebus2] 06/1/2014 11:45

Welcome back Ali, lots of upside still to come here imv so a wise decision for a long term investment.

[investali] 06/1/2014 11:35

Morning all, I bought back in this morning, should have done it earlier but I was never one for listening.

Great trading update and how the turnaround continues to gather pace.


Ali.

[cheeseandbiscuits] 06/1/2014 11:05

Looks great I'm in now. Obviously not bought at the bottom but looks like this has so much going forwards!?

[battlebus2] 06/1/2014 10:58

30p in the not to distant future imv.

[cheeseandbiscuits] 06/1/2014 10:38

Targets anyone??

[chrisis33] 06/1/2014 08:30

Incredible performance. What news to wake to.

[playful] 06/1/2014 07:45

Beating everyone's expectations – Congratulations must go to the management team who have been working most diligently.

[battlebus2] 06/1/2014 07:18

What more can one say.....fabulous!


Christmas Trading Update

Crawshaw Group Plc ("Crawshaw" or the "Company"), the meat focussed retailer, provides the following update on current trading.

On the 19(th) of November 2013 I reported that our like for like sales for the 7 weeks since 26(th) September were up 18%, and that we would issue a further update following the very important Christmas trading period.

I'm once again delighted to report that management actions are continuing to deliver a progressively improving result, with like for like sales for the 7 weeks to 29(th) December 2013 up 21%, and once again at a higher gross margin.

With costs very much under control, we now expect the out turn for the full year to end January 2014 to be materially higher than the current market forecast.

We are also delighted to report that on 25(th) November we opened a further retail outlet, in the new Sheffield covered market, which is trading well, and that we are close to completing the lease on a retail premises, also in Sheffield.

Richard Rose, Chairman of Crawshaw, commented: "Our customers are spending more with us, and we have attracted a lot more customers. This reflects the excellent quality and value we offer. The improvements in trading performance are spread across most of our stores, and this gives me much confidence for the future. We are excited to have been able to restore our store expansion program, albeit in a very controlled manner."