Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[playful] 10/1/2014 11:44

BB2, I am sure you'll be back to good health shortly as CRAW's improving performance is just the tonic you need.

I talked with Jan last year regarding PTD as I was worried about folks running around the Ethiopian factory with AK47s but he said it's much more civilised now.

[battlebus2] 10/1/2014 11:16

Thanks davidosh. I also hope the do very well. Watch out for chrisis33's choice STY it looks like it's going to be in and around the top performers too.

[davidosh] 10/1/2014 11:09

Bb2...my best wishes for better health too. I was torn between four companies for the competition and in the end chose another Yorkshire company Inditherm as they may do very big things this year!

[battlebus2] 10/1/2014 11:09

Thanks Shanklin some days movement is better than others but can't complain too much.

[shanklin] 10/1/2014 10:58

Hi bb2

Its a shame I didn't nominate CRAW for this year's competition or I could (kindly?)offer to swap my nomination for your shares in CRAW :-)

Sorry to hear you are still having problems after your stroke.

Best wishes, Martin

[battlebus2] 10/1/2014 10:53

Regretting not nominating them again for the NFSC then again it's the year of PTD!

[davidosh] 10/1/2014 10:43

Yes John bought due to the Mello presentation and I can tell you at least 20 new investors came aboard at that point not least because of the excellent presentation and trading update that closely followed. Investors like good communication and business models that are easy to understand and reasonably able to predict growth into the future. There is lots more to go for here. I posted months ago that 20p was possible this year and 50p in three years...I like to under promise and over deliver !

[battlebus2] 10/1/2014 09:54

Yep John seems to call it right on most occasions, it's certainly worth following his buys on his webpage.

[playful] 10/1/2014 09:43

I think JIC's post is well worth a read, you need to scroll down the thread, but here it is:

I just posted this on my website; I agree with you that earnings forecast are probably way too low and am going to let this one run!

Crawshaw Group (24.5p and 2.9% of JIC Portfolio) I bought this holding following a presentation by the Chairman, Richard Rose at the end of November and then added to it on 7th December having done a little more work on the Company. Including today's 8% rise I am now up around 75% and whilst it might be tempting to take profits I am going to resist.

When I did my further work on the stock (see 7th December post) I came to the conclusion that it would be difficult for it not to achieve at least 1.0p of earnings in the year just ending January 2014, which compared to its broker's forecast of 0.6p! Since its trading statement on Monday its broker has increased its forecast to 1.0p for this year ending January 31st 2014 and 1.3p for next year putting the shares on 24x for 23% growth and 18.8x next year for 30% growth. Arguably it still looks okay value on those valuations given the growth.

I suspect however that both of these sets of figures will be upgraded and, we will soon have a forecast for January 2016. I think the Company has good medium and long term growth opportunities from rolling out its format from its 20 odd current estate and so will let this position run! Very Happy Holder!

[battlebus2] 10/1/2014 09:34

Oh i agree playful, that's what i was trying to say but not with it this morning.
Edited the post. Back to one handed typing this morning as i can't move my other arm atm.

[playful] 10/1/2014 09:31

It's their potential future prospects more than anything else

[battlebus2] 10/1/2014 09:06

As this investor puts it "crawshaws rocking and rolling"

Funny how we all interpret value in different ways. For me these are worth 30p now when you factor in future prospects and the momentum this share has got which has nothing to do with numbers.

[battlebus2] 09/1/2014 17:02

YEP Morrisons really feeling the squeeze, rarely shop there now.

[playful] 09/1/2014 16:59

Yes, we have started the New Year very well and listening to the CEO of Sainsbury's yesterday and Morrison's today admitting they are being squeezed by the smaller discounters only confirms that people are looking for value and this is where our mix & match meat deals come out on top.

Our second string is the food on the go "Yorkshire style" and it's not just Crawshaws that agree look what the CEO of Greggs said today:

"Greggs decided to focus on challenging the likes of Pret A Manger in the £6bn-a-year "food on-the-go" market by extending opening hours and pushing goods such as sandwiches and sweet snacks."

We just need to focus on the hot sandwiches with nice meaty fillings which will no doubt appeal to the majority of Yorkshire folk and Greggs cannot touch us on price, quantity and quality.

[battlebus2] 09/1/2014 16:14

Another great performance today and playful is still smiling :))

[drsmessguide] 09/1/2014 07:14

Admin costs are difficult to adjust but we may see how they move when the results come out and we can then project forward more accurately
Y

[chrisis33] 08/1/2014 23:38

Hope they're in the right ballpark ;)

I've not got my computer open but i think i got to about 10x or 12x earnings at 29p. But this assumed no increased central costs, which is not realistic. Those calcs are also based on a 20% lfl increase for the full year - not just for the last third of the financial year. So more an approximation of next year's possible performance assuming LFL % improvement is maintained into next year.

Don't take my word for it though ... Knocking up a spreadsheet to model % changes in margin, costs and revenue only takes a few minutes. Especially for a straightforward business model like this one. If you've not already done so I'd highly recommend it!

[battlebus2] 08/1/2014 22:41

Could get a mention in an update to the small cap recommendation in Shares mag tomorrow which looks wise now.
Using your figures myself chrisis33 for calcs.

[drsmessguide] 08/1/2014 22:20

What were the figures chrisis?

[chrisis33] 08/1/2014 22:00

Put a 20% revenue improvement and 1% margin improvement (I.e to 44.9% gross margin) into that spreadsheet of mine. Not selling at these levels. Ps. Can I have back those I sold at 8 and 13p please ;)

[drsmessguide] 08/1/2014 21:47

A pleasing lack of excitement on today's rise, still well below the radar of most pi's

[battlebus2] 08/1/2014 14:18

Buyers back after a few took profits. Should steadily rise to 30p with results early April.

[battlebus2] 08/1/2014 12:05

I did hold just under 3% at one time.

[shanklin] 08/1/2014 12:00

bb2, 2% well done... I'm quite pleased with my 0.4% bt in October and November at 8p and 13p.

[battlebus2] 08/1/2014 11:30

Oh i can see you from here, lol.