Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 19/2/2024 11:42:37

Konil,Yep, a lot easier to move cash but he needs the prod up and CE cash to facilitate that so hopefully we see both this year. Tag,The company comms didn't used to be so poor. I met the original board Schoonbrood, McDougal, Barker and our Clive but not KO. Floated at 38p if I remember and so shot to c 70p on early expectations of greatness before the financial crash of 2008 where main minnow oil exploration companies went pop like Max Petroleum. Things changed when KO and Kazakh pals took majority share and the comms to PIs have deteriorated. That may not be KO, it could be Shin and the company would argue that KO saved the business by funding it with minimal dilution in the difficult periods although there are a few sweetheart deals like 3AB. Through gritted teeth ? I'd be lying if I said I wasn't hacked off but I stay invested until I see a real risk to their continued operation. They've traded for 17 years now and as far as I can see, they have a larger asset base, they are now profitable even with the painful sanctions and the CE charter will add to that. They do have debt with the B8 drilling and BNG liabilities but they're paying that off at $3.2m pa. They've operated in a negative financial position for most of their trading history but now they are in the black. I believe they continue to build their asset base as there will be opportunities to add more acreage on the cheap, that acreage will come with drilling/licence commitments but there is little competition for it. Some of it may come from Shin's Korean links to KNOC and their disposal strategy.I stay invested as I believe they eventually get there. It's definitely been jam tomorrow, there's no denying that but it'll take little success to transform this and as far is I'm aware, they have the cash and assets that can deliver value = multiples of current share price I'm really hoping that the 2 new structures at B8 are flowing and that they can convert the NY deeps as they are meant to be easiest wells. A5 is the well I want to see redrilled as that's the most lucrative well and that's the well that gives the share price the biggest jolt as it's the biggest structure at BNG. 7 possible deep results this year at -;A5A6A7802803Block 8 x 2That's why I'm still here :)

[bluemango] 19/2/2024 11:13:57

x2 can answer for himself but FWIW I firmly believe they can convert this to a far higher valuation and have been adding accordingly, taking the opportunity while the share price and sentiment are subdued. 'Buy when others are fearful' and all that.

konil and smarty/x2; good posts, entirely agree.

[bluemango] 19/2/2024 11:08:56

Tag57 I totally understand your frustration which is shared believe me!

However I have to disagree with the RNS/poor comms being a red flag; as I tried to explain I actually think it's the opposite, and that over-egging the prospects here would have been far more of a warning than simply not giving enough info. Yes we want to see more reason to attract PI's. Meanwhile the larger holders, concert party etc are unfazed, couldn't give a stuff about us and the wider market as they are firmly in for the endgame.

[konil] 19/2/2024 10:49:51

good post smarty.

i agree your assessment ko will not want to take it private cos i reckon the listing gives him a route to move cash away from kaz. and he has spent a long time loading his various assets into the company (and increasing his shareholding in the process). bwdik.

i reckon the share price is irrelevant for the big boys down at these levels, which is why they dont give two hoots for the rubbish put out in the rns's. they (like us) want to see production up and the market valuing the deep assets correctly, but that only comes with a deep or two being commercial.

[xclusive2] 19/2/2024 09:39:03

Understandably, investors are hacked off, anyone would be with zippo return on their investment, especially those invested for years. The only winners maybe those who have successfully traded this but they are in the minority. Communication is poor and obfuscation is continuing as is the inconsistency from one RNS to the next but we can't change this as we are the minority players in this game but we do have a major role to play as we dictate the share price. Regardless of positive or negative news, the share price is dictated by supply and demand and the share price rarely equal real value, it's a representation of PI sentiment. Current m/cap is c £55m, when only a year ago the share price reached 8.6p and £195m. How do you justify that ? The rise to 8.6p was fuelled by 802 flowing, 142 result increasing shallowing production and the introduction of Divis which were not affordable. What is the correct valuation ? simple answer neither as it's down to good old sentiment and resulting supply and demand. Current sentiment is poor but why are PIs still here ? Many will probably be trapped and can't afford or don't want to realise a loss, many are still invested and they still believe that this is still a huge multi-bagging opportunity and are seeing that the assets are worth investing in. Could Caspian go to market and buy their current asset base for £55m ? The deep assets ie A block, NY & B8 , the shallows at MJF/SY and the Caspian Explorer. I don't believe they could but if the share price continues to stay down at these levels, maybe Penrith's concern of being taken Private will become a reality. Current PIs only represent 15% of this company, probably less now so it would only take £8m to wipe us out at this level. I don't subscribe to this outcome as I believe that KO would lose control of his little empire as there are predators that probably would clean him out and the real money will be made on share price appreciation not a private sake of asset base, I only see that in the disaster situation. KO knows that his best exit is via share price appreciation and he needs PIs to do that work but they need to get their finger out and start delivering !I stay invested to see them succeed with the deep conquest. They may never do it but currently they are funded by current production to continue the journey without dilution especially if CE cash lands and could be a continued source of considerable profit. They have made little progress over the last few months and that's down to current cash restraint, that's obvious. They took the divi cash which put them under cashier pressure, the sanctions have affected income inflow and they've gone through a busy period of drilling to meet licence commitments ie 802 and B8. They've made no progress on 803, 802 and A7 because they're managing cash and speed of progress will be dictated by prod income and CE cash so hopefully we see things progress at a faster pace. As stated, I'm staying invested to see them realise value from the deep assets and I'm hoping that it happens this year. 802 was meant to be highest COS, they got it to flow but the same old blockage ensued and now looking for a partner to assist. 803, will it be the same story ? A5, our best deep to date from prod flow rates but yet again the blockage issues. Will B8 be any different ? I don't know but 2 wells drilled and ready for testing so we'll know soon enough. 7 deeps to see conclusion this year providing they have the cash to facilitate the drilling. I'm sticking around to see if this leopard can change its spots.

[credock] 18/2/2024 15:27:52

Well PVIL i have been invested here for over 10 years and that is the best post i have ever read. That is so true and in a nutshell Casp to a T. Same RNS for 10 years LOL.Bang on if they cant get a deep going in all this time will we ever get one producing .Come to think of it is anything they say true at all ??? Has anyone ever been over and seen these oil wells etc ??

[pvi1] 16/2/2024 16:31:33

They've basically released the same RNS for the last 10 years. It's time to let go guys.

[spangle93] 16/2/2024 14:08:39

There's probably a wee bit of verse along those lines ....

[roy1982] 16/2/2024 14:04:15

did someone say JAM TOMORROW

[penrith] 16/2/2024 10:48:53

Never invested in a company so contemptuous of its minority shareholders.The RNS covered the absolute minimum. The only comment "With the return of Well 142 production levels are moving in the right direction."Shows the contempt.

[bluemango] 16/2/2024 09:25:57

Given how cold it's been in Kazakhstan over recent months this is a decent (albeit unexciting) progress report. Some traders exited early on but can see this moving up now with warmer weather and plenty of drilling news still to come.

[spangle93] 16/2/2024 08:00:02

"In Q3 2023 we spudded Deep Well 803, the final deep well under the current BNG work programme. Drilling has reached a depth of 500 meters without incident "

500m???? In 4 months? Are they using a teaspoon?

160 bopd in well 142 is rather less than before, but at least there's something back on the investment, and the oil price is better than some years

Why wasn't the workover on 145 successful?

I don't remember stuck pipe in 141 being mentioned before, but maybe that's because to preserve mental health, I try not to spend much time on CASP.

I certainly don't know on this performance how they'll get the shallows back to half the 5,000 bopd production being talked about some time ago

As for the deeps, well, it's wait and see

It's hard to love this company or respect the Chairman

[spangle93] 16/2/2024 07:52:32

I think "mixed" rather than positive. It's the CASP way.

[dipla] 16/2/2024 07:27:04

Finally some good news. Positive rns

[tag57] 16/2/2024 07:24:05

Clive Carver obviously isn’t paid per word!

[togglebrush] 16/2/2024 07:11:56

We continue to sell all our oil to the domestic and domestic mini refinery
markets where the gross prices are approximately $32-34 per barrel.

Production 1,900 brls per day

[maxim1999] 15/2/2024 12:09:39

I am intrigued that there has been such a delay on this last update. Oddly I am not ascribing that to the fact that it's the usual incompetence and or general lack of any sort of progress with the drill bit. This time I am wondering if it is because there are some complicated corporate agreements being negotiated (farm in) or that the final checks are being done on some flow results. We live in hope.I recon next week we get something .

[xclusive2] 15/2/2024 11:27:56

Maybe some new corp activity too ?

[xclusive2] 15/2/2024 11:27:03

Slept in again :)Tomorrow or next week but I'd prefer the latter. He's got soooo much to update on, he's the one with cramp ;), we wish ! Another indifferent one for me ie progress on all assets, prod numbers and CE position. Don't believe they've won at 142 as we'd have had an update so probably trying to fix water ingress issue and everything else will be progress report, maybe SY is getting close to result. There is loads of news due in H1 and very material as we could have results 3 or 4 deeps if you inc B8.

[tag57] 15/2/2024 09:30:45

You will be getting cramp in your hands with crossing fingers for so long.

[maxim1999] 15/2/2024 08:30:48

Fingers crossed tomorrow