Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 06/2/2024 20:59

We are and likely this week or next latest imho

[dipla] 06/2/2024 20:53

Are we not due an operation update?

[konil] 06/2/2024 20:16

yes! hope for a good one.

[xclusive2] 06/2/2024 19:29

Can't disagree with the IF but one thing is for sure, they have far more planned for this year and a load more IFs, let's see what the first RNS of 24 gives us ! Not long to wait .

[konil] 06/2/2024 16:40

i doubt ko wants this to go private...yet, so agree on that.

also agree new investors wont give a stuff about all gone before...but the numbers stated in post above
"M/cap back to $65m and revenue this year is likely to be $45m+"
are like that because no one has any belief in this company any more.

of course 'if' they actually deliver some new success which adds significantly to production then everything changes.

that 'if' has been an insurmountable obstacle for casp to date.

if they had good news they would have put it out. if its a 'state of play' rns then that suggests it will be an update on the usual dire progress and maybe more problems/excuses.

as usual i hope to be wrong. let's see.

[xclusive2] 06/2/2024 16:22

But as we know, they don't give a stuff about PIs BUT we also know that any positive news from their umpteen projects sends this flying and the new investors won't give a stuff about history and past sentiment.Much that I disagree with any privatisation of this company, if PIs continue to dump and the free float diminishes, you'd be forcing KO & WCP to change plans. I think this is very unlikely as KO has chucked all his assets into Casper and the loss of the 3AB licence or inability to get it through shows that he may not control his Caspian assets if it went Private. He lost the BNG licence argument which cost $32m over 10 years and the inability to sort 3AB and the fact that KMG took the ENI share means that KO would be very vulnerable if taken Private. He has to net licence commitments hence the movement of 3AB into the Caspian shell. I also believe that our KO is not flush with cash as many believe so Caspian and it's income engine keeps the plates spinning.24 should be their best chance of creating shareholder value as they gave the assets and the funds to exploit them. Success isn't guaranteed but if failure continues, Shin has to go or as says many times, they need to partner with a competent entity.This can multi-bag from here, 20 bags+ but we need to start getting that oil flowing !!!

[xclusive2] 06/2/2024 15:40

I can't believe that we've sunk back to this level again. The mini pump has been followed by selling equal to the amount purchased. Could be wrong but it seems a little to coincidental. News is upon us and I'm so tempted to add a huge chunk but I have too many and am sitting on my hands until I see a little more conclusive news on current activity. M/cap back to $65m and revenue this year is likely to be $45m+ if barge deal happens. That's without any increased production from the current drilling campaign planned !!!

[konil] 06/2/2024 14:05

yes lots on.

problem is casp have form on doing very little over months and months and then mucking up whatever little they have worked on. the progress over last few (many) years given the number of targets available would put a snail to shame.

[xclusive2] 06/2/2024 09:21

K,Yep, difficult for long termers not to have a negative view on proceedings to date. Can't argue with the drilling stats but they have steered the company through sone choppy waters. The rise to 8.6p last year with a little more prod that created the cash to pay the Divis, shows how it can change quickly. That was without any deep success although the 900bopd at 802 would have added to the move. They're going to add $10m profit minimum IF the CE contract is fulfilled in Q3, that in itself gives a divi opp but I think they'd probably do a one off as opposed to restarting that process. I believe they need consistent income to go back on that journey so need to build the shallow prod and prove up a deep. When you look at the portfolio of assets they own, it is ridiculous when compared to share price but none of it will add to value until they prove one or 2 up. With regards to Bico contracts, I believe that's business as usual but we'll know eith next news, maybe this week. The material news this year ? there is bucket loads that could catapult this northwards but nobody's buying it until there's some wins. Next up -;142 - yes or no805 - progress updateB8 - still awaiting regulatory approvals803 - progress updateA7 - rig tested and well gas spuddedProduction updateThis year plansSY- drilling several targets to add to 805MJF - 141 and a few more horizontalsNY deeps - Remedial work on 801/802 & 803 in progressA block - A7 final well before readdressing A5 & A6B8 appraisal wellsIt's absolutely ridiculous but success required to send the share price flying. The

[konil] 06/2/2024 08:31

lots have been and gone but not impacted the share price

so let's hope you are correct and they have positive news to release. anything like a standard status update after all this time could be taken negatively by the market.

any sign of a positive result at any well would be good, as would news of increased production above the 2000bopd.

rather pessimistic given the history here, but hoping for a turn in luck.

[dipla] 06/2/2024 07:52

Hopefully see some action here soon. These tenders look positive

[xclusive2] 31/1/2024 15:56

Typo - underwater beach liability NOT with Caspian.

[xclusive2] 29/1/2024 15:39

K, I've just finished a financial planning session with my advisers...lol . ISA pots being part of the discussion ! In our lifetime, let's hope so .BM,If they're getting a $10-15m chunk from CE and more to come probably, im sure a divi will make a comeback especially as all the legal/contractual work done.

[bluemango] 29/1/2024 15:14

Of course any whiff of a reinstated dividend would see a higher share price and consequent upwards revision in those figures to maintain the 5% example.

[bluemango] 29/1/2024 15:08

Talking about reinstating a small dividend - just for fun, a 5% dividend on 2.7p mid-price gives an annual dividend of 0.00135 GBP (eg £1350 on a million shares)

[konil] 29/1/2024 14:49

smarty, 22592, sums it up very well and good points about production from shallows and meeting licence commitments.
jumping the gun here a bit but after a7 and 803 maybe they can manage cashflow to continue with ops and reinstate (smaller) dividends. we know the big holders are desparate to see some returns during their lifetime!

[xclusive2] 29/1/2024 12:53

Yep, a deep is the major catalyst but 4-5k shallow production is the easier task (allegedly) and some new reserves from SY are welcome. First deep success after 10 years of failing and as you say, $millions of sunk costs with zero return. By the end of 24, we should know whether deeps have been a list cause and they could walk away , JV/farm in or sell the acreage or business. Knowing KO, he'll continue the journey, probably diversify into minerals/wind etc and market it again, probably list on another exchange. Not dead Konil but 24 needs to be different and they have the cash to complete the deeps on Airshagyl, NY and Block 8. Also will have met all their licence commitments so costs will reduce dramatically as it'll be remedial work only on their deep portfolio. They have found oil on all drills bar A8 so maybe that's the next task, to partner and share the spoils if they fail this year.Appraisals or new wells to complete A7803Block 8 x 2RemedialA5 sidetrackA6802801 ?That's 8 deeps and the largest costs are with A7 and 803 but significantly reduced as they're using their own rigs. All this work planned for this year ? Yep but as we know they'll not go it all. Get 803 sorted as that's meant to be easiest. We'll get news shortly on B8, good or bad and and A7 to follow the rest us remedial and I'm keen for them to re drill A5 as they must've exhausted options on side-tracks. No confidence in this stock by many but that can change very quickly.

[konil] 29/1/2024 11:59

they've sunk tens of millions into drilling deeps. they need a deep success. all will follow after that.
they may sell up before though? hope not, wont get fair price for assets, or you could argue it is a fair price with no deep success.

[konil] 29/1/2024 10:24

smarty, admire your positivity!

[xclusive2] 29/1/2024 09:15

Unfortunately, all stocks are If, If, if but Casper is definitely IFFIER than most ! Don't believe they'll run beyond month end to release a monthly update unless they've nothing to report on of course but that's highly unlikely. Has been flipping freezing and last week seeing -10 to -20 in the evenings and sub zero daytime.Worst case we have no progress on any of the assets that are due to conclude or should've concluded ie 142 and B8. All other wells are in progress inc the new SY structure hopefully so lots of news to be released in Q1 but no guarantees re the success quantum. If they were delivering positive drilling results with the 24 activity schedule planned, peeps would be all over this but sentiment is holding this back until they start converting the drill targets. Could be drilling 12 shallow/deep wells this year !! surely something has to give .

[billybankrupt] 27/1/2024 13:23

If, if, if,Let's hope for some clarity shortly.....

[konil] 27/1/2024 10:58

yeah the ce cash will be a lifeline, i wonder what's happening meantime, if anything, news is well overdue.

[xclusive2] 27/1/2024 10:45

K,We've had a tough ride, no disputing that !! Running on fumes ? If prod is continuing at c 2k bopd and MR/Dom prices holding up, this with the additional trading revenue = far more profitable than at any time historically. Costs are up due to supply chain and inflationary pressures, also activity up (allegedly) and the additional costs to B8 so it will be interesting to see FY accounts. If they do generate say $12.5m from barge then that's a huge chunk of profitability that will go a long way to easing any financial pressures. Not diluting us to death like many other AIM failures so hopefully our Austin Allegro is being upgraded to a Maybach ;) and we can enjoy the ride this year, long overdue Rodders !