Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 12/12/2023 10:12

The share price is almost back to Covid/Riot/War levels where the risk to Caspian was the highest. Initially saved by the Ukraine war as oil prices retraced from the $17 low ! and a time where Caspian we're only receiving $6 for domestic or less. The geopolitical risk has diluted as Russia has enough on its plate but the imperial desires of our Putin will continue but we still have a few years before he starts looking at neighbours who weren't entirely supportive of his conquest (s). So at 2.6p our m/cap has crashed to c $55m and that is discounted from fundamental value based on the shallows only. They are/will generate c $25m pa from the current 2000 bopd dependent on oil pricing obviously. There is recoverable oil for at least 15 years yet the m/cap is $55m ? No value for CE or any of the deeps inc the latest acquisition ie Block 8. Allegedly we have found oil at all of the wells drilled with only one P&A at A8. They have the asset portfolio to send the share price on a multi-bagging journey but do they have the skills to deliver it themselves ? That is a question they need to answer very quickly because as of today, they've sunk well over $100m with zero return from the deep campaign. They have to decide to bring other players in to see if they can turn it around, not to do so is madness. They managed to flow A5 at healthy volumes for c 15 days, that would've galvanised their conviction that the oil is there and the 100s of millions boe are within reach. Sadly after many side-tracks they have come up empty so something has to change. Same at B8, if they fail there then it'll compound the fact that they can't deliver so let's get somebody else in and share the spoils.As of today, we are back in delayed news mode. Last update intimated that test results on B8 wells and 142 were imminent, that was 6 weeks ago. Maybe it's more problems and excuses, maybe they're successful and flowing the wells but history clearly shows that it's probably the latter. Personally, I believe that there will be some positive news in next RNS. Probably a mixed bag and anything positive will stop this downtrend. They have the CE cash for next year which is a considerable sum of money and if they continue to produce the paltry 2000bopd, they will turn over c$40m next year, that's without any drilling success whatsoever yet the m/cap is $55m. Hugely oversold imo but it's the PIs that dictate the price as they are the only ones trading it. 15% of the shareholder base dictate the share price and sentiment/credibility is surely lacking g as of today. Sp should be 5p+ as a minimum today and we all know how things can change with a little success. The long term investors will be jaded and cynical of this investment but the newbies with a non trainers outlook will have a different view.We're long overdue sone success, we still have the assets and the funds to exploit them, helped by the CE cash so we're still in the game. This is still a 20 bagger + from these levels and it will only take our first deep success to send this into silly season.One day Rodders, tick, tock :)

[credock] 09/12/2023 14:51

That would be a dream . Lets dream

[bluemango] 09/12/2023 14:16

Worth it in the end when it gets well into double figures.

[credock] 09/12/2023 12:48

Hi fellow Caspers . Another poor year on here im afraid. Just wished i had cashed out on the hype of the first few months. On March 2nd i had £60,500 in my Casp Interactive Investor account. That now stands at £18,300 today. Ah well better luck next year as i suppose a few more on here are well down just like me also. All the best.

[penrith] 08/12/2023 09:32

Interesting read.https://astanatimes.com/2023/12/kazakh-government-approves-development-plan-of-major-oil-gas-petrochemical-projects/

[konil] 01/12/2023 11:34

fingers xd!

[xclusive2] 01/12/2023 10:05

Thanks Toggle. K,Too pessimistic ? Who knows with this lot. We should've had testing news on the 2 B8 wells and 142 so it's not unreasonable to feel pessimistic. They did take a while to release initial news on 142 and the hailed success at 1400bopd, let's hope it's the same again without the water issues. Same goes for B8 wells, should've had news but maybe they're flow testing for a period before updating, to avoid more portions of humble pie. Good, bad or ugly ? they said they'd update promptly with detail so got to be next week and let's hope it's positive !!

[konil] 30/11/2023 11:01

if its a monthly update, probably means nothing special to report else they'd have trotted out the news earlier? so more casp delay specials?

too pessimistic? hope so.

[xclusive2] 30/11/2023 08:06

Yep, a stormy Black Sea. https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/kazakh-oil-production-down-as-storms-hit-russian-black-sea-coast/2-1-15609248m waves, not a normal occurrence. Caspian oil doesn't take that route but affects the big boys. News is well overdue so looks like the monthly update next week, hopefully not the winter weather special coming but looks barmy compared to sone years https://www.accuweather.com/en/kz/tengiz/1686182/november-weather/1686182

[bluemango] 24/11/2023 19:01

... which doesn't mean it won't happen.

[roy1982] 24/11/2023 18:24

B/M
Some of us have been saying that for 15yrs plus.

[bluemango] 24/11/2023 13:09

Indeed you did, spangle. But I don't regret it - just a matter of time imo.

[spangle93] 24/11/2023 11:43

bluemango 21 Nov '23 - 17:09 - 22467
By a wide margin, this is easily the most frustrating shareholding I have owned


I did warn you, but you were just too headstrong! ;-)

[bluemango] 22/11/2023 12:40

Thanks x2, yes I appreciate what you're saying - though I'm not sure the sellers of the last few days are even thinking it through that much. My own view is that on sheer probability, given the various drilling/testing activities going on recently at several different wells, means that positive news from at least one of those is more likely now than any time in the last 12 months. Therefore any sells now are simply illogical (especially given how few will be in any profit) - though if we're right and good news is indeed imminent, then I guess the price preceding that is of relative unimportance. You just hope that any rise on news starts from a reasonable base ...

[bluemango] 21/11/2023 17:09

By a wide margin, this is easily the most frustrating shareholding I have owned, mainly because I am perplexed by a tiny minority of shareholders who, presumably aware that drilling news is quite probably just days away, still decide to sell a few. At this time of all times! Extraordinary why anyone would do that, and of course the mm's are happy to both accept those shares and to mark it down yet again.

[xclusive2] 15/11/2023 10:21

Let's hope so :) Needs a positive drilling update to lift sentiment. If Shin and team can't do it then as with 802 and 803, try it with another partner. Eventually we're going to find out whether they can convert opportunity to reserves and much that we don't want to see it, the geology may be too difficult. If they do manage to get back on track with the productive horizontal approach on the shallows then that will lift sentiment considerably and with it the share price The deeps are the money spinners as they bring us the multi millions of reserves and that's when this goes silly. Revenues and profitability will increase and that with the ENI cash will ensure that Casper can continue with oil exploration and other projects. Shareholders have got very used to disappointment and more pore drilling news isn't unexpected anymore. There is downside into the low 2ps but we know the story continues as the oil is there and investors buy again, hoping that next time it changes. Shin has delivered sone horizontal wells so we know it can be fine but if failures continue, it'll be time for partnering to see if our fortunes change for the better.Casper have navigated some choppy waters inc domestic unrest leading to riots, Covid snd now Ukraine war. They have managed to survive and are in the best position financially providing they don't make foolish mistakes like paying Divis prematurely. No guarantees but the multi-bagger many invested in many years ago is still that multi-bagger today. Let's hope all patient investors new and old , start to reap the rewards from this investment.As always, tick, tock !

[maxim1999] 15/11/2023 08:21

A friend does deep dive tech analysis on charts typically the bond markets and major indices. I asked him to look at the CASP chart wondering if he had anything to say. He sent a chart with all sort of lines and trends on it. He said it was extraordinarily positive . Now we all know we need good news to get this going . And the company are not great on that . But he thought the low was in , bottom of the uptrend. Next stop 8.5 p and 14 p after that . He was very very positive. To iterate we need results from the drill and the chart won't move itself but a tiny bit of good news in a sea of boredom while we wait for an update

[xclusive2] 15/11/2023 08:01

P/topic whilst we wait for news -; positive CPI numbers giving a boost to the economy, especially HBs. It's a sector that could bounce hard if inflation continues to decline, the only upward pressure could come from energy if geopolitical events creat supply issues. See interest rates dropping in Jan as Sunak tries to make up Poll ratings gap and starts pushing he positive economic message. HBs are one of my target sectors, the likes of VTY/BDEV/TW etc and hopefully we've seen the bottom :)Our Casper now has to deliver. No more drilling failures ! They are in an oil rich territory and have had 16 years to exploit its riches and it's about time that they deliver the shareholder value they've been promising for almost 2 decades !!

[xclusive2] 14/11/2023 12:49

BM,Volume has been tiny and probably peeps are trading it for small margins. Nice to see someone buying a chunk. Let's hope that we see it trend north from here but more importantly, the news is good and puts some more solid foundation under the share price so it can move back to double figures.

[bluemango] 14/11/2023 12:48

I mean, what do they think's going to happen to the share price if those test results (plural) come in positive in the next few days? Where on earth are they going to find a quicker gain?

[bluemango] 14/11/2023 12:24

It astonishes me when the first reaction of some people (thankfully few) to an uptick in the bid and tightening of the spread is to say 'ooh look, I'll sell 50k' (£1500 worth).

Drill test results getting ever closer.

[xclusive2] 13/11/2023 18:15

Tag57,I don't but we do know that the previous wells were drilled and produced at 800bood, now c 100 bopd so hopefully the new wells will deliver. I believe our Shin and team are not up to the job but let's hope his and our fortunes are about to change for the better :)1. P-1 on the Sholkara structure, drilled in 2016 to a depth of 4,203 meters.2. P-2 on the Sholkara structure, drilled in 2019 to a depth of 3,450 metersNew wells 1. AKD-4 on the Akkuduk structure, drilled to a depth of 3,925 meters - now awaiting test results2. T-2D on the Toresai structure, completed and awaiting test results