Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 27/2/2024 17:56

Spangle, you forgot MXP/GkP/AFR/UKOG and all the other dreamers and there are many !Et sl,Yep, they've found oil but will they ever flow it ? only time will tell but almost 10 years elapsed since A5 initial find. We might find that the geology is just too tough but one thing is for certain, they're not stopping the deep campaign so who knows if they eventually get lucky. We've all become a tad cynical over time and by that I mean the long termers and understandably so. Newbies will/could have a different view as they don't carry the battle scars of a non appreciating investment. They would've experienced a few of Caspian's recent mishaps eg divi withdrawal and the 802 flowing at 700bopd before more blockages. Will Block 8 be any different ? who knows but id have thought they'd have ditched the protracted regulatory process and wasting dough if they hadn't seen oil shows during drilling snd why test ? As Spangle has stated, nothing guaranteed but it's another 2 deeps drilled and 2 of 6 or 7 deeps that are in play this year and tgeyve never been in that position before. At 2.5p, for me it's another big opp as they are funded by their shallow prod with CE cash on its way (hopefully). I also believe there are more corp deals to come yo buikd the asset base. A multi-bagging opp but ive been saying that for years but maybe that jam is in its way :)

[bluemango] 27/2/2024 09:10

Fair point, though I think even the most pessimistic, glass half empty, gloomiest person in the world might acknowledge that they are in a better position having already discovered oil that flowed, and from several wells on different structures, than one that hadn't.

[spangle93] 27/2/2024 08:13

"if you ask me it's looking good as you don't test water"

I think you missed out the word "knowingly", BM. Try asking PANR (Kuparuk), TXP, (Chinook, Royston) MTA (Perrier), XTR in Turkey before it became a miner, AST (anagni) and goodness knows how many others over the years that have "found oil" and then not flowed it

[bluemango] 26/2/2024 23:46

Some interesting posts over on LSE this evening, including this:

"After CASP acquired the option to buy Block 8 in September 2022 (nearly a year and half ago) I reckon CASP's drilling company spud the two Block 8 wells not long after around February/ March 2023 hitting TD in September and have now been ready to flow test these two wells for 5 months now. They will have drilled through various intervals of interest on the two new Block 8 structures so the question is what is it they're preparing to test? They will already know the interval(s) thicknesses and if any oil flowed to surface from an open hole/ saturated core samples, if you ask me it's looking good as you don't test water"

[bluemango] 26/2/2024 13:32

Still no broker note from WH Ireland after the last OU on BNG, which is highly unusual for them and suggests (to me) that they're saving it for a more comprehensive update to come soon.

[xclusive2] 26/2/2024 11:36

Next move backwards after a buying spree last week, the trend had been selling. Don't believe we wait long for a comprehensive update to capture the true position on ALL assets. Most material are probably B8, CE position and prod nos, maybe corp activity too .

[xclusive2] 22/2/2024 15:49

K,Not sure. Yep, they need to drive Rev up tiny increasing prod but what happens to the divi chunk. Windfall payment maybe but I hope they manage it differently, spreading the income with a sustainable divi process. It would definitely push the share price on as income investors join the ship. They won't do it unless they know they have consistent income so prod has to increase.

[konil] 22/2/2024 13:22

smarty i suspect they are not interested in sustainable divis until regular income increases significantly with higher production.
meantime if there is a wodge of cash the big holders will see it as a cash offshoring exercise so they will do a special/one-off or maybe 2 or 3 months divi then stop.

[maxim1999] 22/2/2024 10:17

If they do decide to start the dividends again then they need to ensure it's sustainable

[xclusive2] 21/2/2024 10:35

Tag,

The last RNS had to be released as they had the results from 805/142 and I suspect we won’t wait long for a comprehensive update on all assets. I have been in from the beginning and have a bucket load of stock so I will always ask questions, largely to seek clarification. No guarantees but they have more material assets in play since incorporation and producing fields that are currently the cash flow engine, CE cash will help, who knows they may reintroduce divis but at a lower yield.

[tag57] 21/2/2024 10:24

Thanks XC2. At least his direct communication looks a lot better than his public comms.

[xclusive2] 21/2/2024 10:21

Also, you need to compare current prod and net prices achieved v the past 17 years. They are profitable now, prod is 50% higher than historic averages and oil prices are higher too. They're also trading their own oil that adds additional revenue as communicated. As stated in Clive's response, they have gone through a cash restrained phase and that's largely down to work commitments once Block 8 but the divi payments last year obviously didn't help. They managed to survive when oil was sub $20/6, no comparison now.

[xclusive2] 21/2/2024 10:09

Penrith,

We don’t know 100% but I can share a few paragraphs from one of the recent e-mails from the company.

I ask lots of questions and to be fair, Clive is very responsive. He answers the questions posed re CE, cash pressure and poss acquisitions. I also add the link that New Norm posted recently. I think you’d agree that it looks very positive re CE, the only point unanswered is the preparation of the underwater beach but he believes it’s ENI responsibility and will confirm.



From Clive,

‘Add to this that we are nearing the end of an extended cash constrained phase where we have had to spend on drilling to meet work programme commitments to maintain the licences and to prepare for the ENI contract at the same time as suffering the pricing and working capital impact of Russian sanctions.

Later in the year I hope the position to be much improved with increasing production, other assets coming on stream and the bulk of the payments due for the Caspian Explorer coming through.

As regards the split between the domestic and domestic mini refinery sales these are broadly the same as previously 50:50 but where the greater profit is for the domestic mini refinery sales.

For those who believe in Kazakhstan the future looks good as there are plenty of opportunities and seemingly little competition for the size of assets that we would be interested in.’

[penrith] 21/2/2024 08:49

The thing that's keeping this ship afloat is the boat if you get what I mean. Do we think the actual rental is a certainty?

[konil] 20/2/2024 18:04

unfortunately not. i mean it in relation to items they are reporting on and i'd add confusion and obfuscation to the list.

but lazy is spot on, they just dont care about the pi so they put minimal effort into the rns's.

fingers x'd they get a deep to flow.

[xclusive2] 20/2/2024 16:48

He likes the use of positive adjective or 10 .....lol Not entirely factual but nothing wrong with a little hype now and then. I think the 375 is SY total as 805 was already contributing to the 300bopd that was last reported from the block. I haven't asked what 805 was producing at previously but all wells were shut in for 18 months if I remember and 300 bopd was the total then. I suspect they're looking to double output as a minimum but maybe I'm being a tad pessimistic.The shallows aren't going to make us rich, increasing reserves will BUT it does produce the critical cash to ensure that they can continue the deep journey, to acquire assets and who knows, with Benny onboard, maybe a mineral play. I just want them to focus on getting that flippin first deep to flow, that's the event that lights the touch paper. If they got one to flow with 6 other deeps in play, you can imagine the hype. Old Salman won't have enough adjectives to cope :)

[bluemango] 20/2/2024 15:57

Thanks konil.

You mention 'lies and disinformation', presumably meaning you believe they are deliberately downplaying the prospects for Casp. I prefer to think of it as a kind of lazy omission; those private shareholders are a bit of a nuisance really, so feed them minimal crumbs occasionally but don't make any effort to let them feel encouraged as they really don't matter in the long run.

As mentioned previously - I prefer that, to them over-egging & hyping it unrealistically, but it's hugely frustrating to witness.

[konil] 20/2/2024 15:51

roll on the day when it doesn't matter what lies and disinformation are stated in the rns because a deep or two start flowing and the share price looks after itself.

[konil] 20/2/2024 15:44

thanks for the link to that article.

question now is whether 805 is producong 160bopd stated in rns or 375bopd stated in article?

in general that article seems to ignore the realties on the ground;

- casp's progress over the years since finding deeps with oil has been non-existent, with current deep production at zero

- the shallow ops performance is dire, bopd has gone backwards with lower bopd now than previously as the wells deplete or whatever other technicalities cause reduced production

- cash for ops has been limited and at times casp has been running on fumes (i had assumed this was resolved when the divi was started, but no, it was management being foolish and depleting cash to unsafe levels)

- casp do not have a good record with the authorities

- to say 142 has 'roared' back to life with 160bopd whilst also pointing out it had previously produced 1000bopd kind of discredits anything else he has to say.


back to the reality of bopd;

prior to latest rns, production was at 2000bopd.

latest rns states production at 1900bopd.

if 142 now produces 160 and 805 produces 160 i.e. 320 additional then that means production from other producing wells has dropped by 420bopd since previous rns.

if production at 805 is 375 then additional production since previous rns is 535, which means other producing wells have dropped 635bopd since previous rns.

[bluemango] 20/2/2024 14:57

RSI is low, double bottom on the recent chart.

Suddenly got a good feeling about CASP looking ahead, first time in a long while.

[bluemango] 20/2/2024 14:37

Caspian's nomad WH Ireland are normally fairly prompt in putting out a broker note after an operational update, eg after 21st Dec update they issued a note the same day.

Unusually, this time they haven't.

Could this be because they're aware more news is coming soon?

[jostrummer] 20/2/2024 14:18

Decent read isn't it..

[tag57] 20/2/2024 14:04

I would like to invest in that Caspian Sunrise, sounds like a much better ran company than this one!
Shows CC must have spent all of 10seconds on his narrative for the RNS.

[bluemango] 20/2/2024 13:38

That link again: