Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[kfp] 06/6/2017 11:19

With the share price fall from over £3 ,a divi cut must be priced in ?

[rcturner2] 06/6/2017 11:19

They will have to get a new loan to pay it off though?

[redartbmud] 06/6/2017 11:14

It will be repaid at par on the due date.

[kcsham] 06/6/2017 10:40

A loan is a loan, it has to be paid back. However, if the money is used in a positive way, the company will be benefited so as the shareholders.K C

[kcsham] 06/6/2017 10:33

m4rtinu - Hope this may help:Convertible Loan Note is often known as convertible bond. Basically it is a money borrowing contract between a borrower and a lender for an agreed period of time to maturity.The lender agrees to provide a loan to a borrower with a lower interest rate than on the normal market for an agreed period of time. In return the borrower provides the lender a choice of having its principal back in cash or to convert it into the shares of the borrowing company in an agreed favourable price at the end of the contract.The benefit for the lender is it could convert its principal into the shares of the borrowing company in a favourable price while protecting its principal with continual cash flow from interest payments until maturity. The key benefit for the borrower is able to raise money with a reduced cash interest payment and if the bonds are converted to its company shares, the debt vanishes. However, the value of shareholder's equity is reduced due to the stock dilution when lender converts its loan into new shares. It will be interested to note that Convertible Bonds are most often issued by companies with a low credit rating and high growth potential.Wow! "With a high growth potential!"Are the shorters taking a risk?K C

[m4rtinu] 06/6/2017 09:48

Red - thanks. I wonder who does own the CLNs?

[shawzie] 06/6/2017 09:46

Interesting to see how the present problems of isolating Oman, by other Arab states,will affect Carillion going forward.

[jaf1948] 06/6/2017 09:32

'If the FTSE ships 1000 points for any reason, you will see Carillion down massively.'

Pure speculation - if the FTSE goes down 1000 points, EVERYTHING will be down massively. Maybe CLLN would be LESS down as it has already fallen so much.

If Corbyn gets in this week, the FTSE will fall by more than 1000 so we will see !

[rcturner2] 06/6/2017 09:22

The share price has been going south while the market has been going north. On a down day like today you can see that Carillion performs worse. If the FTSE ships 1000 points for any reason, you will see Carillion down massively.

[wallywoo] 06/6/2017 09:20

I think the stock market saying "don't catch a falling knife" springs to mind here. Even if the share price turns from here there will be plenty of time to buy at low prices, so why not wait for share price to either consolidate or reverse. Too risky IMO

[redartbmud] 06/6/2017 09:09

m4

The company has confirmed to me that the shorters do not hold any of the CLN's.

[m4rtinu] 06/6/2017 09:06

Whilst the "professional" analysts/ investors may have a greater all round knowledge of up-to-the-minute share information, I imagine a PI could be as knowledgeable about an individual company.

Probably boring to say it but the timing of the large increase in shorting trend started just after the launch of the Convertible Loan Notes. A technical note posted by someone on here showed how holders could make money using CLNs and shorting shares, and that the cost of paying dividends was small in comparison to the total made.
Didn't fully understand it (or indeed remember the detail).

If, and its a big IF, the CLNs are key, they expire in 2019. Will we have to wait til closer to that date for a real pick up in SP? Or will CLLN have to issue something similar to repay loans?

As you can tell I am no expert :)

[snowtime] 06/6/2017 08:49

well its almost time for a massive divi, that i can reinvest in more Carillion, lower the share price the more you buy & the bigger the gain when the shorters pick another company to bully...keep the faith!

[sux_2bu] 06/6/2017 08:30

Support at 200p broken.

[jaf1948] 06/6/2017 08:02

Could well be.

[rcturner2] 06/6/2017 07:47

JAF, I remember when EK was shorting the housebuilders before the crash of 09. At the time it wasn't at all clear why he was short. But basically he was betting on a tightening somewhere along the line, which would be catastrophic for housebuilders. I think the same is true of the shorts here, at the moment it is not clear what the shorters are betting on.

[lab305] 06/6/2017 04:05

hxxps://www.google.lv/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=hxxp://www.cityam.com/224901/hedge-fund-marshall-wace-lends-support-labour-leader-jeremy-corbyns-economic-policy-peoples&ved=0ahUKEwi4sLDUnajUAhWEliwKHc3VBsAQFggrMAA&usg=AFQjCNHq0jYdqyr-J0LZm8pxOtYmRc-9Jg&;sig2=_3C3aXZVz1PxiyH7zkgQsg

[zcaprd7] 06/6/2017 00:37

How can a hedge fund support corbyn? That seems wrong on so many levels?

[utyinv] 05/6/2017 22:29

One of the biggest shorts on CLLN is by Marshall Wace (hedge Fund) who heavily supports Corbyn.

Is the fall politically inspired?????

See what happens on Friday.

[kcsham] 05/6/2017 19:59

Sorry everybody, except that one, this will my last post relates to a skunk.K C

[jaf1948] 05/6/2017 17:54

No denying the shorters have done well. Their original premise for shorting I still content didn't happen but it's a bit like being given out caught behind in cricket when the original appeal was for LBW - the result is the same !

[rcturner2] 05/6/2017 17:50

JAF, the shorters are in the money and may well have bought and resold on the way down so have banked some profits. The fact they are still holding such large shorts suggests that they are still happy that the price will fall from here. On Berkeley I was happy to go against the shorters and made good money there. On Carillion I am still happy to sit and wait.