Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[sux_2bu] 24/5/2017 15:27

JAF194824 May '17 - 13:16 - 4659 of 4659 2 0
And we should care, why ?



Never asked you to care. However, i'll re buy them cheaper should 200p not hold.

[jaf1948] 24/5/2017 13:16

And we should care, why ?

[sux_2bu] 24/5/2017 09:04

Dumped my shares yesterday....bought barc instead.Huge holding in lloy.

[utyinv] 24/5/2017 00:30

sux_2bu

re:Anyone know what caused that spike down since 1430 -ish ?

Could it be the Yanks?

[jaf1948] 23/5/2017 16:52

I think you will find it is just the normal workings of a stock market. If more people buy, the price goes up; if more people sell, the price goes down.

Of course, we often get concerted bouts of selling (and occasionally buying) that the conspiracy theorists put down to the shorters. Unfortunately, it is difficult if not impossible to prove or deny that theory.

[sux_2bu] 23/5/2017 15:31

Anyone know what caused that spike down since 1430 -ish ?

Price was steadily climbing well..

[valhamos] 23/5/2017 14:37

The Motley Fool article does not really "sum up" anything at all other than the author has not done his homework.

"Uncertainty of its long-term revenues" is unexplained; why is this specifically a factor for CLLN?

"It’s likely that earnings will continue to deteriorate over the next two years" Not according to forecasts.

"The company’s balance sheet is not looking too good either, with average net borrowing rising to £586.5m, up from £538.9m in the prior year." For a start average net borrowing does not appear on the balance sheet only closing borrowing. But whether you use average or period end borrowing the article really ought to acknowledge that the reason for the increase was forex and that the exposure is largely hedged (no changes to cash flow or repayment as a result of forex movement).

[rcturner2] 23/5/2017 14:23

also very interesting was the article in the IC which showed that Carillion has covered up a lot of poor performance with acquisitions, that article was an eye opener for me, the underlying business is not performing well

[wallywoo] 23/5/2017 14:17

JAF: I think this Motely fool article sums up the risks for me, but also agree it could have one hell of a short squeeze rally, if the share price turns up, hence watching:

www.fool.co.uk/investing/2017/05/04/2-risky-high-yield-dividend-stocks-you-should-probably-avoid/

"Construction and support services group Carillion (LSE: CLLN) is one such stock which has seen its share price slump and its dividend yield soar. After a 28% fall in its share price over the past 52 weeks, the stock currently yields 8.5%.

Carillion is one of the most heavily shorted companies in the FTSE 350 as hedge funds worry about its mounting debt and the uncertainty of its long-term revenues. Although the company continued to deliver steady double-digit revenue growth in 2016, investors seem increasingly sceptical that the company can continue to grow revenues at its current pace and avoid further margin pressure.

The company’s balance sheet is not looking too good either, with average net borrowing rising to £586.5m, up from £538.9m in the prior year. And it’s not just the company’s growing debt levels that investors have to worry about. Carillion also has a sizeable pension deficit, which has only gotten worse as bond yields have declined following the Brexit vote last June. In its final results for 2016, the company revealed that the deficit had widened to more than £800m, which is worth nearly 90% of its market cap.

As such, Carillion’s long-term dividend outlook seems uncertain. It’s likely that earnings will continue to deteriorate over the next two years, and there isn’t a great deal of financial flexibility given its weak balance sheet."

[rcturner2] 23/5/2017 13:51

sux, the chance of Carillion failing is very very low, but not zero

[m4rtinu] 23/5/2017 13:20

Been trying to see if shorts are reducing or not. Simple answer is that shorttracker shows 22% as latest, so very little change (-2% pts from high in Mar 17) over recent months.


Of the co's with the largest short positions:

Co Name: Current % Highest % Any pattern? (R= reducing, I= incr, U= unchanged)

Blackrock: 3.39 4.4 R
Marshall Wace: 3.31 3.31 I
Thunderbird: 3.23 3.23 U since Aug 15
Immersion: 2.21 2.21 I but U since Oct 16
AKO: 1.78 2.85 R from high between Mar 16 & Mar 17 (to 0.42) then I
Cape View 1.57 1.6 small R but U since Dec 16

All of the above and others, (ex Blackrock 1.41%) had a short position of < 0.5% prior to CLN offering in Dec 14.

So no real pattern to positions of short holders as far as I can see.

[jaf1948] 23/5/2017 13:16

wallywoo,

'It is the most shorted stock on the market for a reason'. Then what is the reason ? Debt ? Pension Deficit ? There are many companies which are just as bad as CLLN and have not been shorted.

I contend that there is NO reason any more why it is so highly shorted except for the fear factor that has been generated (aka 'there's no smoke without fire') which is prevalent on this board and others.

[wallywoo] 23/5/2017 13:11

Still think both points are valid. No company has not failed but the share price has gone down 40% in 2 years in a strong market. It is the most shorted stock on the market for a reason. This is a major support level, it did not break but neither has it bounced strongly. Could easily test it downwards again. Watching closely to see if worth jumping in again

[jaf1948] 23/5/2017 13:06

RCT, As usual, you make valid points, some of which I agree with ! Whilst accepting that a FTSE250 company can fail, the shorters have been waiting 3 years for failure / profit warnings and they have not happened so I content that their original reason for shorting is no longer valid.

Personally, since I am not selling, I will stay with my 7% income.

[sux_2bu] 23/5/2017 13:05

Post 4645Are you telling us CLLN could bite the dust, I,e, go out of business ?

[rcturner2] 23/5/2017 13:01

JAF, I hear what you say, I don't totally agree, that's what makes a market. Of course shorters aren't right all the time, but they are some of the time. You seem to discount entirely the shorting as having no relevance at all, I am not sure I agree with that. Plenty of good solid companies have bitten the dust before, FTSE 250 companies among them.

[jaf1948] 23/5/2017 12:29

RCT,

The shorting has been going on for 3 years now because some people believe that 'there is something seriously wrong'. The shorters convince many gullible people that 'there is something seriously wrong' so people don't buy and other sell because they think the shorters must know something the rest of us don't (which they don't).

The BoD of CLLN must have been lying to the market for the past 3 years if 'there is something seriously wrong'. I do not believe that for one minute. It is not a binary case at all - the company is a good solid FTSE250 company which I will continue to believe until the BoD tell me otherwise.

[garycook] 23/5/2017 11:58

RC2,My belief is that a bottom is in here around the £2 mark.So my scenario,was lock in the 9% yield,and the growth is a bonus.CLLN should slowly rise from here.But the next set of results will see if there is anything seriously wrong.Which I hopefully believe that there is not.

[rcturner2] 23/5/2017 11:18

The trouble with Carillion is that it is either an absolute bargain or there is something seriously wrong, a bit of a binary case.

[garycook] 23/5/2017 09:58

Just purchased another 1,500 CLLN,to take my holding to 4,300 shares average share price 2.0480p,giving a yield of exactly 9%.It looks has if shorters are unloading atm.

[sux_2bu] 22/5/2017 15:45

Added more.......however, Need 207p resistance to break....then more resistance at 213p -ish

[pjt105] 22/5/2017 13:52

The 'Right to recall lent securities' (short closing?) is significantly higher at nearly 6m, was only 50k in the previous Citi Equity swap RNS. Could explain today's share rise.

[haywards26] 22/5/2017 12:35

I have never known more confusing holding RNS's than we see here....All relating to the shorts etc