Carillion Share Price (CLLN)

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Type	Share ISIN	Share Description
Carillion Plc	LSE:CLLN	London	Ordinary Share	GB0007365546	ORD 50P

	Price Change	% Change	Share Price	Bid Price	Offer Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price	Shares Traded	Last Trade
	-0.25p	-0.57%	43.50p	43.50p	44.00p	44.50p	43.00p	44.25p	1,103,182	16:29:59

Industry Sector	Turnover (m)	Profit (m)	EPS - Basic	PE Ratio	Market Cap (m)
Construction & Materials	5,214.2	146.7	28.9	1.5	187.16

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Carillion (CLLN) Latest News (1)

Carillion News

Date	Time	Source	Headline
22/9/2017	13:00	UKREG	Carillion PLC Holding(s) in Company
19/9/2017	16:55	UKREG	Carillion PLC Holding(s) in Company
11/9/2017	08:59	ALNC	TOP NEWS: Carillion Confirms Departure Of Finance Chief, Taps New COO
11/9/2017	07:10	ALNCF	Alliance News Flash Headline
11/9/2017	07:01	UKREG	Carillion PLC Directorate Change
11/9/2017	06:52	ALNC	PRESS: Carillion Finance Director To Resign After Nine Months In Job
22/8/2017	15:17	UKREG	Carillion PLC Announcement of 2017 interim results
17/8/2017	16:20	UKREG	Carillion PLC Holding(s) in Company
15/8/2017	17:58	UKREG	Carillion PLC Holding(s) in Company
11/8/2017	18:20	UKREG	Carillion PLC Holding(s) in Company

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Date	Time	Title	Posts
23/9/2017	11:03	Carillion - Charts & News	8,052
23/9/2017	09:37	Shorting	7
14/7/2017	21:26	* Carillion *	2
17/12/2015	14:44	Carillion	2
30/11/2009	22:33	CARILLION	542

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Carillion (CLLN) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time	Trade Price	Trade Size	Trade Value	Trade Type
2017-09-22 15:35:06	43.50	144,554	62,880.99	UT
2017-09-22 15:29:59	43.50	45	19.58	AT
2017-09-22 15:29:58	44.00	56	24.64	AT
2017-09-22 15:29:35	43.75	463	202.56	AT
2017-09-22 15:29:35	43.75	1,693	740.69	AT

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Carillion (CLLN) Top Chat Posts

Date	Subject
23/9/2017 09:20	Carillion Daily Update: Carillion Plc is listed in the Construction & Materials sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CLLN. The last closing price for Carillion was 43.75p. Carillion Plc has a 4 week average price of 40.57p and a 12 week average price of 40.15p. The 1 year high share price is 265p while the 1 year low share price is currently 40.15p. There are currently 430,254,629 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 5,751,481 shares. The market capitalisation of Carillion Plc is £187,160,763.62. Read Full Thread Reply
31/8/2017 18:23	calahan: Decent article here that summarise some things fairly well (I've copied it below for the convenience of those who can't view it. Apoologies for the wall of text for those that can). hxxps://www.constructionnews.co.uk/companies/contractors/carillion/carillion-crisis-four-questions-that-wont-go-away/10022970.article Carillion crisis: Four questions that won't go away - 31 August, 2017 By James Wilmore Share price rollercoaster – when will it end? Nearly two months since Carillion’s share price collapsed after a major profit warning, the group’s fortunes remain on a knife-edge. The contractor and services firm saw its share price dive 70 per cent last month on the day it revealed chief executive Richard Howson was to step down following an £845m writedown. The group has remained in the headlines as its share price has, with every announcement or non-announcement, seen significant fluctuations. Last week shares slid to a new low as investors were seemingly spooked by the fact that it had delayed the announcement of its half-year results – even though this had been revealed at the time of Carillion’s July trading update. Its stock then subsequently edged back up – apparently off a £300m contract win in Manchester, revealed by Construction News. Such fluctuations show no signs of abating, giving some credence to suggestions from analyst UBS that, while the firm can potentially be recapitalised, a worst-case scenario could even see shares eventually fall to zero. Carillion’s interim chief executive Keith Cochrane will be hoping to steady the ship next month when he reveals the results of a strategic review. Why is Richard Howson still there? As the man at the helm of Carillion for the last five-and-a-half years, it was no surprise that Richard Howson immediately stepped down as chief executive after last month’s damaging update. However, interim boss Keith Cochrane told Construction News Mr Howson was being kept on for up to a year to essentially help collect money from problem contracts. Eyebrows were then raised even higher by the news, as revealed by CN, that Mr Howson was taking back his old title of chief operating officer as part of Carillion’s “leadership221; team. As one commenter on our website put it: “You’ve got to be joking!”. Yet analysts have been less moved, with one saying: “[Howson’;s] background is construction, so it makes sense that he’s at the forefront of getting cash through the doors from these contracts.” Each of the senior people I’ve spoken to about Carillion’s woes has, without fail, described Mr Howson as being a well-liked and respected character. But questions remain over how such a situation arose on his watch. Will Carillion be bought? So far, no suitors have emerged. One senior industry executive told me the major deterrent for any buyer would be the size of Carillion’s pension deficit, which stands at around £600m. Apple Value analyst Stephen Rawlinson told Construction News: “Any predator will be mindful of the pension liability, which could be a barrier to any deal.” Balfour Beatty, one tipped suitor, has already ruled itself out. It appears its boss Leo Quinn is resisting the chance of a sweet irony, as it was only three years ago that Carillion sought to take over a struggling Balfour. Now the tables have turned. But parts of the business could still be bought, as Carillon has said it is looking to sell assets to pay off debts, along with reducing net borrowing. It is hoping to raise £125m in the next 12 months. What happens next and can Carillion survive? Consensus among analysts still appears to be that Carillion will do a debt-for-equity swap to escape its woes. “This appears the most logical outcome,” Mr Rawlinson says. But he adds: “There’s no way of understanding the value of the equity at the moment because you don’t know what’s going to happen. You don’t know where they’re up to with the debt, but there has to be some kind of debt-for-equity swap.” What should be remembered is that Carillion is an integral part of a number of high-profile government contracts. “Carillion is a major player on PFI and government contracts, so the government won’t want to see it collapse because of debt,” says Greg Malpass, an independent M&A construction industry analyst. Meanwhile, Balfour’s Leo Quinn has tipped Carillion to survive and emerge a “smaller”; but “better” company. Mr Rawlinson echoes this sentiment. “I think they will survive. You have to remember Carillion is the UK’s largest FM business. They know what they’re doing.” Read Full Thread Follow Reply
30/8/2017 15:38	bakunin: RCTurner2 All of the shorts that were listed were mostly all in place when the share price was at 180p. On the day of the P/W, the share price dropped to 117p. If there is a perfectly transparent reaction to what the company communicated to the market on the morning of that day, how do you explain that the share price is now at 45p? That is not supply/demand in action, other than attempts to scare the life out of private investors in order to convince them to sell their non-trading holdings, something that gillpat aka Patrick Anderton is very guilty of. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
14/7/2017 21:19	spob: Carillion fights for survival after share price crash Troubles faced by UK construction group risk spreading to thousands of subcontractors by: Gill Plimmer Financial Times 13 July, 2017 One of the UK government’s biggest contractors and an employer of 50,000 people worldwide, Carillion is fighting for survival after a calamitous fall in its share price wiped nearly three-quarters off the company’s value in three days. A damaging profit warning, revelations of a sharp increase in debt and larger than expected writedowns on four projects this week confirmed what many short sellers in the market had bet on for years — that Carillion’s finances were far shakier than appeared. Carillion is the biggest manager of military bases for Britain’s Ministry of Defence and its other activities range from maintaining tracks for Network Rail and building roads for the Highways Agency, to hospitals in Canada and Oman’s parliament. " [Carillion’s woes] will raise questions on how the industry is built on balance sheets that don’t have any foundations; they don’t have any assets " Rudi Klein, Specialist Engineers Contracting Group Fears are now growing that the shockwaves triggered by this week’s announcement will spread to thousands of sub-contractors used by the group. On Thursday, Oxfordshire County Council said it would end in September a 10-year deal with Carillion to build schools and supply property management services, which had been signed in 2012 and was due to run until 2022 and be worth £500m. Bankers at Lazard are scrambling to find a solution after Carillion on Monday announced a “corporate and strategic review” — and its share price has plunged by 70 per cent to 59p since, although it recovered 3 per cent on Thursday. Already the group has written off £845m of operating profit from construction contracts, replaced its chief executive, Richard Howson, and suspended its dividend. Its more dramatic options to stave off bankruptcy include a rescue takeover, a debt-for-equity swap or a heavily dilutive equity raising from shareholders. The debacle puts thousands of the company’s contractors and subcontractors at risk and highlights the frailty of UK construction companies, which have almost no assets and outsource nearly all of their work. The sector is vulnerable to slow payment practices — for years Carillion has had a reputation for late payments to suppliers. Questions are also being asked by analysts over accounting practices in the industry, including how early companies record profits on long-term contracts, which can affect how much they can borrow. “Everyone will be watching the Carillion process with a lot of anxiety,” said Rudi Klein, chief executive of the Specialist Engineers Contracting Group. “There’s thousands of contractors and sub-contractors tied up in the company and the way things are going they will be incredibly concerned. Now the subcontractors are wondering if they will get paid in three months and if they are paid late they may suspend work.” Mr Klein added that Carillion’s woes “will raise questions on how the industry is built on balance sheets that don’t have any foundations; they don’t have any assets”. Carillion has been shifting from construction to less risky support services contracts, such as facilities management, which now accounts for almost two-thirds of revenues. Almost all of the losses have come from its building arm, which was hit by a squeeze on contracts and margins after the financial crisis. The company has faced delays to payments on public-private partnership contracts in the UK — an area it is withdrawing from — as well as rising materials and labour costs. It has also suffered, along with industry rivals, from a slowdown in signing contracts since the Brexit vote. This week Carillion highlighted some key projects — including Merseyside’s Royal Liverpool Hospital and an Aberdeen road project — on which it has taken large writedowns. This sparked concerns that the company’s problems could run deeper, with profits potentially set for a sharp decline. The company announced savings from axing its £80m dividend and withdrawing from business in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. But these are unlikely to make a significant dent in its debt mountain — its net debt has risen from £42m in 2010 to £695m in the first half of 2017 and is expected to reach £800m in the second half. Carillion’s market value on Thursday morning was about £250m, dwarfed by its £663m pension deficit, meaning any rescue deal would need to be negotiated with trustees. Some analysts are forecasting a diluted rights issue of about £500m — double the company’s current stock market value. “The most likely course of action will be a rights issue, but we would not rule out a more dramatic restructuring (an exit from construction?), or potentially a combination of both,” analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a note. But Stephen Rawlinson, analyst at Applied Value, said he viewed a rights issue as “extremely unlikely”. “Why would any investor put money into Carillion when the trustees would have first call on it? There needs to be an agreement with pension trustees and they don’t tend to act quickly.” Sources close to the company said that an emergency rights issue would take time to engineer given the instability in the share price and the churn in the share register. The company is exploring a range of other options, including a debt-for-equity swap, the source said. The option of a purchase of part or all of the business has been downplayed, as rival British contractors including Balfour Beatty — the subject of an aggressive takeover attempt by Carillion in 2013 — appeared to rule out bids. However, industry watchers speculated that a Chinese company could make a play for the group given Beijing’s ambitions to move into the British construction market. “I can’t see any British firm bidding for it,” said one industry source. “Why would you invest? How many businesses do you know that have only had [just] one profit warning? They have hardly any assets they could sell and the pension trustees would have first access to the proceeds anyway.” Carillion insisted it had substantial liquidity and was in no danger of breaching banking covenants, which do not mature before 2019 and 2020. It said that with £4.8bn new orders last year and £2.6bn so far this year it was still winning work and going about its business as usual. But there are concerns that the situation could quickly deteriorate, particularly if the group started struggling to pay suppliers. “If you’re a contractor working for Carillion you’ll be worried about progress payments over next three months because they may slow down payment to the supply chain by even more than 120 days,” said Mr Klein, who added that he was advising subcontractors to assess the risks and chase outstanding payments. Mr Rawlinson did, however, point to rivals of Carillion that have survived similar problems. “The sector has been prone to over optimistic views of costs and revenues for a long time,” he said. But although some such as Jarvis, the rail contractor, have gone into administration, others such as Serco, Mouchel and Balfour Beatty have faced spectacular blow-ups and survived. Supplier payments attract attention Carillion’s slow payments to suppliers have come under the spotlight as analysts and hedge funds said the practice was a sign of the company’s parlous financial state, write Emma Dunkley and Gill Plimmer. The UK construction company warned this week that it needed to shore up its balance sheet as its debt spiralled and it made £845m of contract writedowns. Some analysts and investors said invoice payment methods and use of supply chain finance had exacerbated its debt problems. Carillion took the decision a few years ago to extend payment terms to its suppliers to 120 days, nearly doubling its previous payment timeframe. The move was part of a new government-backed payment system it had adopted, called the Early Payment Facility. Under this scheme, partnering banks would offer to pay a supplier earlier than 120 days for a charge. Carillion would then pay the bank back at the end of the term. This process, sometimes known as “reverse factoring”, is designed to ensure suppliers have fast access to cash. One analyst said the move to extend payment terms allowed Carillion to keep cash for longer, at a time when its cash reserves were low, and move debt off its balance sheet. But the controversial practice, an initiative of former UK prime minister David Cameron, has concerned some investors. One hedge fund manager told the FT he had been shorting the stock for a couple of years because Carillion had failed to agree invoices or pay them quickly. “When we see payment terms lengthening it’s a red flag and that’s why we shorted it,” he said. Carillion was one of the biggest users of reverse factoring. One of the risks is if banks become nervous about Carillion’s ability to pay, they could limit or withdraw the facility. According to Carillion’s website, partner banks include Lloyds Banking Group, Royal Bank of Scotland and Santander. One industry expert said: “The banks will probably have put in place credit insurance so if Carillion falls into insolvency they might have insurance that will pay out.” Another issue is that if suppliers become worried, more of them will ask for earlier payments, putting pressure on the funding facility to deliver this. COMMENTS (3) Upaswellasdown 6 hours ago Gill – well done on getting the competitors to rule out bids.Was that on the record? A few other comments - Chart showing net debt and order book – a bit misleading – the 2nd y-axis gives the initial impression that orders have fallen to zero.In any event, an order book of £16bn vs net debt of £200m looks ok but what matters is how this order book turns into FCF.Pre-tax profit margins of 2.8% imply post-tax margins of 2.2% and suggest the order book could be worth £363m.But how much of that profit will become cash?E.g. will it become large contract debtors?Should also bring this chart up to H1 as ND vs orders is probably much more alarming then - I wasn’t aware that a trigger for involvement by pension trustees is the relative size of the deficit vs market capitalisation. Is that right?Obviously there are probably other possible triggers.But I can’t see that they will get in the way of any recapitalisation that improves their credit position compared to the precarious position it is in now. - A debt for equity swap could only take place if the current shareholders are almost totally wiped out.It’s a possibility but probably worse for them than a very dilutive right issue - e.g. see Mouchel where equity got 1p / share - Maybe have confused banking covenants with debt maturities – the facilities / bonds which mature in 2019 and 2020 will have maintenance covenants that need to be complied with at each half year testing period.So the debts are a problem long before they need refinancing (though that is when the rubber really hits the road) - You should probably also include Laing and Mowlem in the list of failed contractors ReportShare RecommendReply @MusapuriR 11 hours ago How and why is this mismanagement allowed especially with such a large £663m pension deficit ? The people responsible should prosecuted. ReportShare 1RecommendReply Thisisnotworkingout 1 day ago 663m pension deficit? Bye bye. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
13/7/2017 22:22	pj0077: Good evening benders!A group of us on here can make the CLLN share price rise to 71pence tomorrow.... anyone want to join?! Read Full Thread Follow Reply
13/7/2017 15:29	fenners66: >Careful "never thought that i would welcome Corbyn putting an end to these hedge fund market rigged fiddles. clln employ thousands all doing proper useful work. their futures are just a side issue of hedge fund activities" You think that the hedge funds are responsible for what? A falling share price does not immediately affect any of the employees. Short selling is betting that the share price is going to go down , however if the company releases great results and manages debt then the short sellers would sooner or later get burned. These short sellers knew that the share price was unsustainable because the company cannot manage the contracts , has a write off of £850m coming and may well not manage the debt which they got themselves into. Question is , if the hedge fund managers could work this out - in droves a long time ago - how come the management was telling shareholders - the real losers here - that everything was fine in May? The blame for this mess , and any real job losses remains firmly with management because its the REAL losses to the company that drive this. Their can be no trust in management that either did not know £850m loss was coming or who did know and decided to keep stum. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
11/7/2017 09:55	spob: FT Alphaville yesterday (free to register) 10 July 17 Https://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2017-07-10/ PM Should we go straight into Carillion Bryce? 11:03 am PM Rest of the market is pretty mixed PM Footsie's ahead 24 points BE I guess so, sure. 11:04 am PM All of europe pretty positive PM But Carillion the one of the only solid pieces of corporate news PM Painful trading statement here hxxps://www.invest...1707100700105229K/ 11:05 am BE So, fun chart. BE PM What's that short interest? 11:05 am BE Yep. Carillion share price (white) vs Carillion short interest as percent of free float (green). BE It's one of these where everyone saw it coming. BE Apart from Blackrock! 11:06 am BE Which has been a holder since about 2011, or perhaps even before, and has been adding throughout this year. PM Dozy thing to do BE I mean, everyone has raised concerns about Carillion. Everyone. 11:07 am BE There was even a highly flaky bid rumour around a month or so ago that flagged that longs wanted out. BE Take the signal! Jees. BE But let's head back into the detail of what was said. 11:08 am BE Trading conditions deteriorated dramatically. BE KPMG contract review results in an £845m provision. PM Ouch 11:09 am BE That's four years of operating profit, to put it in context. BE Debt's now going in the wrong direction. BE Divi suspended. 11:10 am BE FY revenue guidance foes down to £4.8-5.0bn BE Board announce a fire sale to try and get debt back into line. BE Going to try to raise £125m from exiting most of the Middle East Construction business. (/And good luck with that!) 11:11 am PM This feels like it's headed for an emergency rights issue, arleady. PM Won't be able to cut / sell quickly enough BE I would see that as a significant risk, among others. 11:11 am BE UBS incoming. BE We have long argued that Carillion is running excessive risk with total net debt incl pension of £1.4bn before considering around £0.5bn reverse factoring. While dividend cut and asset sales are the first step, we struggle to see how they will be sufficient in reducing net debt. We therefore believe the immediate reaction to the share price will likely be dramatic, possibly down more than 50%, though we recognise the volatility will be high and with c30% shares on loan some short closing may support. BE And RBC ...... 11:12 am BE Key near-term focus has to be on stabilizing the balance sheet, given debt levels and the scale of the pension deficit. The share price will react accordingly today, and we are unlikely to get any concrete resolution on the financial position of the business until the interims in September. In our view, the group would need to raise a significant amount (£500m+) to restore stability and in the near term, we would expect others to be running the slide rule over the business. BE "£500m+" PM Right 11:13 am PM So this really is a candidate for the London Approach PM Hey, ive found that "bid story" -- from June 23 PM Shall I share? 11:14 am PM From that website we never name BE Sure, why not. PM Carillion (CLLN), the British support services business is rumoured to be aware parties are running the rule over them. The contenders could be those such as international private equity companies Middle East infrastructure funds sovereign wealth funds. The company is said to have taken on advisers, concerned it could be caught out by speculative vultures. Even their bankers suggesting they are vulnerable! In the City of London, some are even saying Carillion has already had a knock on the door / a takeover approach. As the share price is so low and gives the impression of being falling knife, a bid around 275p could be delivered, and perhaps would be more than enough as an offer level. 11:14 am PM Oops BE Ah well, win some lose some. PM (Oh, sorry, I said early i was trying not to be mean...) 11:15 am BE Oh, and here's Liberum. BE This morning we reduced FD EPS by 27% to 25.6p. The £845m provision is huge however we look at it. No clearer what exactly has gone wrong. Carillion will get into trouble way before it breaches its covenants. No quick fixes for the balance sheet. Hard to see a solution without equity. We identify the three major head-winds for cash. Management keen to highlight the attractions of the business. Unrated and the balance sheet will continue to overshadow the business. BE Here are the cash headwinds. 11:16 am BE 1) Greater selectivity in UK Construction will reduce risk, but it will also reduce negative working capital (up to 10% of contract value is typically pre-paid). 2) Restructuring will cost money. Management indicated that it would not cost much. We question that. 3) Management indicates that there is £412m of reverse factoring at H1 (lower than the £498m at the FY), but also suggest that this is unlikely to be part of the long term funding of the business. This needs to be reduced further. We also question whether the banks will be willing to continue with this facility given the reduced covenant of Carillion. BE As you might expect from a management that may be about to seek cash from the market, they were keen to highlight the attractions of the business and reluctant to provide granular guidance (e.g. on the Support Service margin). The key operational risk is that the large SS business results in reduced customer confidence due to the weaker balance sheet. It is positive that there are no large SS renewals until the end of 2019, and c. 90% of revenues are for the public and regulated sectors. BE The shares are trading on a revised CY 2018 P/E of 4.4x. However, we believe that the balance sheet will continue to overshadow the business. Despite the c.30% share price fall today, we believe that it will be hard to attract fresh money ahead of what could be a huge equity raise. 11:16 am BE Anyway. BE Sector getting hit too ...... Balfour Beatty PLC (BBY:LSE): Last: 259.68, down 6.52 (-2.45%), High: 265.30, Low: 252.70, Volume: 1.23m 11:17 am PM Not surprised Mitie Group PLC (MTO:LSE): Last: 271.70, up 1.7 (+0.63%), High: 272.00, Low: 268.20, Volume: 398.74k BE Oh, Mitie's up! Ignore that one. 11:19 am BE The rest of them are .... well, they're dead already, mostly. This sector's been a basket case for as long as we've been doing this. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
04/7/2017 08:02	kcsham: Tugmutton 4UPAn interesting read (written on 28th May 2017):https://www.studio61wealthmanagement.co.uk/new-value-analysis-carillion-plc-2017-lseclln/The price of the Carillion Plc common stock has declined from roughly 375p in February 2014 to just above 200p now. The share price has nearly halved in that time. During that time the earnings per share are actually up slightly. Carillion looks like one of those value cases where the market has overreacted to decline in earnings between 2012 and 2013. It brings to mind Warren Buffett's reference to Mr Market in his 1987 letter to shareholders, which can be found here'Apart from the decline in earnings CLLN has some debt, but close analysis of the financial structure of the company shows that the debt is well structured to protect owners of the common stock. In particular there is an element of the debt that is a convertible bond that converts to common stock at 378.56p in 2019. The conversion price is way above the current share price, which provides some protection to owners of the common stock at the current price. The debt will be removed from the balance sheet in 2019 without drawing on the cash assets of the company'.I'm holding on - though nearly sold half when it dropped to 183 earlier.______________________________The above is a cut and paste of a discussion posted on iii yesterday.Any value of this analyst's view?Make your own decision.K C Read Full Thread Follow Reply
03/7/2017 17:54	kcsham: Ruedolf - I don't believe there will be a big exodus of the shorters yet. Shorters holding over 106 millions shares among them. An average total trade of Carillion shares is, say 3millions, in a normal day (the total trade today is over 4.8 millions and that is high). Assuming the shorters managed to buy back 1.5 millions share a day, it will take over 70 days to offload all their position held on Carillion. If the shorters really try to buy back 1.5 millions shares per day it will certainly cause panic among the shorters and the share price will shoot up as a result. Will this happen? I don't believe it will. However, looking at the daily trading pattern and small price range recently, I will not be surprised that the shorters have started the buying of their shares for a while already in an unnoticeable way. If the shorters want to short the share for a medium/long term they should not continuously push the share price down and and allow a small price range in a daily basis. As I said before, the lower the sp, the greater the risk for the shorters to short. The only logical reason they want the share price stays in a low for a longer period than necessary is to facilitate their buying back.It is certain that the shorters need to buy their shares sooner or later to realise their profits and I believe that will be sooner rather than later.The above is all IMHO.K C Read Full Thread Follow Reply
20/6/2017 13:32	haywards26: The relevance of the daily share price is only really of relevance to short term investors. Long term investors, should switch the daily share price data off, focus on the company news and await value. Patience... Mentally all investors fear a falling share price when holding, and conversely feel joy with a rising share price. In reality a share price is what Mr Market will let you buy or sell shares at any given time. It is not the real value of the company. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
03/2/2017 13:14	kiwihope: Hi pogue, No, the level of shorting seems high, certainly compared to Kier and Interserve who have virtually none. But these things are not linear. They are all to do with investors perceptions of risk, animal spirits and the like, and you can get the camel-straw-back affect where a small change in input can cause a much larger change in output. I am really uncertain about Carillion. Part of me looks at it and thinks, these are the golden opportunities you wait for when unjustified doom and gloom presents bargains. But another part says, are the concerns justified? Comparing Carillion with Kier shows up financial differences but not as much as you would expect by the difference in share price. They seem pretty similar companies. Bothe have sales of £4-4.5bn (CLLN a little higher). CLLN has a bit higher margins giving £235m underlying operating profit (KIE is £150M). And yet CLLN has an EV of only £1.1bn vs £1.5B for KIE. So on that basis you can buy CLLN for 27% less but get 57% more profit. KIE has less debt - it's hard to be sure but roughly KIE pays about £25m in finance costs pa. and CLLN pays about £52m. The difference is 2x but, CLLN makes a bit more profit. But I think it's pretty clear that CLLN has significantly more net debt that KIE. The pension deficit is also hard to weigh up as it depends upon bond yields and CLLN and KIE have different year ends. But looking at what they pay into their pension funds, CLLN pays about 2x what KIE does. I don't know if I'm comparing apples with apples but on the face of it CLLN has a deficit of about £300m while KIE's is only £75m or so. I'm a bit confused but what we can say again, is that CLLN has a significantly larger pension deficit. So here's the choice. Ignoring the shorters (because they can't make CLLN go out of business), if you believe CLLN's debt and pension deficit is manageable, then at the present market cap, the shares are a bargain. Read Full Thread Follow Reply

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