Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 03/5/2017 17:08

Worcester 212-8. Hastings didn't perform very well in the battle.

red

[redartbmud] 03/5/2017 17:04

ranike

That sounds about right.
The 9 Elms delay is down to the college.
The Somerset road does appear to be a genuine problem.

M4
Gfrd announced the Scottish road problem, lumped in with a couple of other issues. They did not break down the provision between the areas.

red

[nicebut] 03/5/2017 16:48

I wonder if someone got a sniff of something yesterday- hence the rise. Or just wishful thinking on my part?

[m4rtinu] 03/5/2017 16:39

Some discussion on lse board, JV with G Try and B Beatty, I believe.

[lab305] 03/5/2017 16:18

The more time that elapses since the shorters took out a large position the more wrong they look. Company still stable and profitable. No-one has alluded to the Scottish contract overrun which I believe is responsible for today's fall. Presumably it was mentioned at the AGM but if anyone knows please enlighten me. Thanks.

[m4rtinu] 03/5/2017 15:53

Ranike - that's much better than I could do :)

[m4rtinu] 03/5/2017 15:51

This is article referred to above. Sorry requires subs to read but dated 2nd May.



Below is from March this year.



Sorry no positive links.

[ranike] 03/5/2017 15:43

I've just left the AGM. Very reassured. Had good opportunity to chat to board members over the buffet lunch. My takeaways are: business looks solid with good pipeline. They are being more selective in which contracts they bid for. Both debt and pension deficit are manageable. There is intention to reduce avg debt this year. Maintaining/growing dividend is a core priority. Seems to be genuine bewilderment at why share is so shorted and a belief that it is currently underpriced.

I'm not selling. Happy to sit back and take the dividend.

Cheers,
PJ

From iii

[m4rtinu] 03/5/2017 15:16

Speedsgh - not sure which contracts specifically, but margins in Mid East only 2% ish from memory in last annual report. Also, read recently, on another forum (LSE or III) that a contract with an FE college (Lambeth or similar) had been put on hold due to college reorganisation/amalgamation. And, a few months ago problems with an ongoing road building project (Somerset, I think).

Disappointing after yesterday's rise. Too many market makers ex rugby players and good at giving a side-step.

What now, in run up to ex dividend?

MU

[speedsgh] 03/5/2017 14:25

Hmm. Today's statement refers to managing "challenging contract positions, particularly in our international markets". Which contracts? (m4rtinu's post 4501 above is noted). AFAICS they have previously only referred to some "challenging markets". I am probably reading something out of nothing but, if so, they should perhaps be a bit more careful with their turn of phrase. Phrases that can be open to misinterpretation will be like manna from heaven to the shorters.

[m4rtinu] 03/5/2017 12:33

Hope this doesn't encourage new short positions to be taken :(

[jamesryan123] 03/5/2017 12:12

I dont think that it is for the moment. If they hit their targets this year then it will still be 1.9 covered and if they exceed then it may tip into the 2x covered safe zone.

[phil140158] 03/5/2017 12:09

The AGM statement doesn't give any indication that the dividend is under threat?

[wallywoo] 03/5/2017 09:56

AGM not kicking off until 12 noon, so I guess any RNS will be released then.

[lab305] 03/5/2017 09:08

Found it. Galliford Try down 10% on 2 costly Scottish projects. One of them a road in Aberdeen is a joint project with Bby and Clln.



A trading update today said: “A reappraisal of costs to complete and recoveries from two major infrastructure joint venture projects has substantially increased the anticipated liability to conclude the legacy contracts (contracted in 2014 and earlier) in the group’s construction business since Galliford Try reported its half year results on 21 February 2017.”

The group has set aside £98m to cover the costs with 80% of that accounted for by the two problem jobs.

It added: “One of these projects will finish on site in Summer 2017, while the other, which represents the larger proportion of the estimated non-recurring costs, is scheduled to complete in mid-2018.”

The firm is part of a joint venture building the new Queensferry Crossing which is due to open this August.

It is also working on the delayed £550m stretch of route between Balmedie-Tipperty on the vast Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route project in joint venture with Balfour Beatty and Carillion.

[m4rtinu] 03/5/2017 07:33

Speedsgh - thanks. Just checked and it seems it was released just after 9.30.

[speedsgh] 02/5/2017 20:30

m4rtinu - yes, tomorrow's announcement will be the AGM statement so I would expect it to be brief. This was last year's -

[phil140158] 02/5/2017 16:00

m4rtinu - trading update and AGM tomorrow.

[wallywoo] 02/5/2017 15:29

This could have one hell of a short squeeze rally, if it turns upwards from here.

Shorters have to fund the dividend too. Interesting to watch this one carefully over the next few days.

[grahamite2] 02/5/2017 15:04

I have been studying m4rtinu's interesting shorttracker link carefully.

One of the firms most aggressively shorting lately has a share capital of less than £1m. I have no idea of its further financial affairs, of course, but conceivably they've bet the house on this short.

[m4rtinu] 02/5/2017 14:10

Trading update in financial calendar for tomorrow. Not sure if they stick to these quarterlies? Ex div 11th. Something helping share price

[kcsham] 26/4/2017 23:45

It close to my TP of 300, sounds good to as well.K C