Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[poacher45] 13/5/2017 09:30

hxxp://shorttracker.co.uk/manager/CapeView%20Capital%20LLP/GB0007365546
This is the history of one of the shorters who seem to change their minds sometimes on a daily basis. The one thing to remember is they have driven the shareprice down by shorting more and more. Investors have given up and reinvested elsewhere never to return. Obviously the directors are at fault and should have been replaced. How do they have the cheek to watch the shareprice halve and then ask for a bonus to get it back up. There are a lot of assets here and it must soon be time that someone can see the potential and sorts the company out. This is only my personal view.

[hyden] 12/5/2017 19:14

fwiw, I think candid investor raises a valid point - this share must be deemed high risk. The yield is now just over 9%! Buy if you are brave but do not put all your eggs in one basket. CLLN represents just 1.6% of my portfolio and 4.3% of my annualised income and losses in both are manageable, albeit a kick in the nuts, if this goes pear shaped.

[candid investor] 12/5/2017 15:51

Yes and share price based on last announcement. Wait for the profit warning announcement..they haven't yet got 100 % of scheduled order book for this year and we are mid way through May...I will hold off until share price less than £1. I will wait though till the shorters buy back...if at huge discount I will buy back too....if panic buying because something positive happened then will bypass this share and move on to next troubled share..but you follow your own strategy

[yump] 12/5/2017 15:15

candid investor

I thought the idea with shares is to work out when the bad or potential bad news is already in the price and the same with good news.

But over and over, people go on about the good news when the share price is flying and the bad news when its plummeted.

[m4rtinu] 12/5/2017 14:18

If I am reading holdings RNSs correctly, Blackrock seem to have a c.7.5% holding, whilst shorttracker shows them having a c. 3.5% short position.

Any views?

[dmf] 12/5/2017 14:11

Bought at 202.60

[candid investor] 12/5/2017 13:46

You don't need to be an expert to figure out high risks on top of too much debt and too low margins on too long term contracts with an unprecedented in size pension deficit in the background. Common sense should tell you that even to achieve these low margins require Goldilocks endings to ALL long term contracts..so in the words of Clint Eastwood...do you feel lucky

[staylow2] 12/5/2017 13:41

Is now a good time to mention further position increases on shorttracker?

[candid investor] 12/5/2017 13:38

Sorry forgot to say IMHO...do your own research as I do though. My opinion is backed up though by an article by somebody who is qualified that said pretty much the same and actually think article is posted on here somewhere although can't find it now. I don't really go by opinions by so called experts who are more often wrong than right and they are suitably qualified but are investing other peoples money until it has all gone...I am investing my own money so conduct due diligence with that in mind. Suggest you do the same and don't get carried away by emotions and high dividend yields

[rcturner2] 12/5/2017 13:34

What should be worrying holders is that this is falling badly while the general market is rising strongly.

[wallywoo] 12/5/2017 13:23

There are 2 schools of thought here both valid / possible. The share price action will dictate which is correct. If the share price drops much below this level (major resistance) the bears are correct, if it bounces the bulls are. Time will tell

[rcturner2] 12/5/2017 13:16

I wonder at what point any of the longs on here are actually able to question themselves and admit that perhaps they have got this wrong?

[kcsham] 12/5/2017 13:08

I believe that you are not. 60p sp? Unbelievable!K C

[kcsham] 12/5/2017 13:04

Candid investor - are you sure that you are qualified to provide advice to other investor?K C

[candid investor] 12/5/2017 12:49

I think the majority of people are misguided in their assessment of the value of this share. Too much debt and too tight margins which when added to a huge pension deficit make this share a time bomb waiting to happen. Carillion are one profit warning and dividend drop away from a 60 pence share price...then I will buy back in along with the shortest...that is what the shortest are waiting for and then they will relinquish their short positions. You have had your dividend so my advice is you exit your positions now and run.

[kcsham] 12/5/2017 11:42

'like a coiled spring'Spot on!K C

[staylow2] 12/5/2017 11:32

The shorters must be in some sort of cahoots. If one of the funds decides to take profit at a level, then the rest would have to follow?It almost feels like a coiled spring.Or are they all on a weekly conference call, feet up, brandy and all agreeing to "let it go a little further"

[kcsham] 12/5/2017 10:27

If the share price goes down further, the shorters will close their position and make a good profit, then the share price will goes up rapidly.If the shorters decided to go further, they will push the share price as high as allowed and start to extend their short position. Either way the share price will be up shortly.Actions - get your money ready and buy on further drop on the share price or enjoy the good time when the price goes up again eventually. It is all IMHO.K C

[kcsham] 12/5/2017 10:16

Then take a few off? Head, mind or proper judgement??K C

[wad collector] 12/5/2017 10:05

No, it was a serious technical analysis based on the angle of dangle and the number he first thought of. Then take a few off.

[edmundshaw] 12/5/2017 10:00

123p? You are having a laugh. No chance of that.

[staylow2] 12/5/2017 09:24

Well that's pretty much all levels gone?

[staylow2] 11/5/2017 15:39

I agree. Seems to be no lack of sell volume

[wallywoo] 11/5/2017 15:36

From a technical point of view if this drops much further then this resistance level has failed, and the share price will drop down to test 123p. Hoping this will bounce from here, otherwise I will sell.

[zcaprd7] 11/5/2017 14:31

Yep, little top up today