Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[mirandaj] 05/6/2017 10:42

I hold but these bits of news are not helping:







Perhaps, after Thursday things will settle down .................or not

[yump] 05/6/2017 10:05

Perhaps they chose it because they knew nobody is likely to be able to make a case for the share price to rise. That might be enough.

Anyway seeing as the dividend is at least twice what I was getting on a fixed investment that just finished, let the shorters do their worst. Well no I didn't mean that entirely.

[jaf1948] 05/6/2017 10:04

The shorters took their decision over 2 years ago and no disaster has hit CLLN (yet !). Now, they are in so deep, they are able to influence both the market and the perception of CLLN.

I reiterate - shorters know no more than anyone else. If you want to be spooked, then be spooked.

[rcturner2] 05/6/2017 09:57

to add, shorters got seriously burnt at Berkeley

[rcturner2] 05/6/2017 09:57

yump, you are probably right, but it still doesn't change the fact that the shorters chose Carillion, and anyone who believes they threw a dart at a newspaper to make that decision is naive and deluded. Shorters are sometimes wrong, just the same as people going long sometimes get it wrong. However, they are also right often enough and they put a lot of effort into choosing their targets.

[jaf1948] 05/6/2017 09:57

CLLN shares will continue to fall as long as there are people who believe that shorters know more than the rest of us, there's no 'smoke without fire' and that the fall in the share price is the proof that something is wrong (a circular argument, but be that as it may).

And whilst all this is happening, the rest of us who have already bought can enjoy a 7+% dividend and keep holding.

He who dares, Rodney....

[yump] 05/6/2017 09:53

Couldn't it just be a mirror of what happens with smaller shares ?

Concerted anything works in either direction with smaller shares. Concerted ramping with major PLC's is unlikely to work, because they'd have to convince other funds to buy, which would involve financial arguments, but concerted shorting can surely just trigger a crisis of confidence and fear. Isn't that much easier to induce ? As long as the business itself is just treading water.

PETS has been in the same position, lumped with retailers, when its actually a resilient market. Presumably that gives greater likely profits, as the upside is higher when everyone 'discovers' that its a better prospect than the bulk of retailers that might be subject to consumer downturn.

[nomdeplume] 05/6/2017 09:47

It is perhaps worth noting that even if the dividend was cut in half, it would still be 4.5%. Additionally, even if profit was halved the PE ratio would still be only 15.

[santar] 05/6/2017 09:27

RCT2 - I seem to remember the shorting started just after the bid for BB. Maybe it is simply they believe a BoD capable of such poor judgement is bound to *uck-up big time sooner or later.

[11_percent] 05/6/2017 09:20

pjt,

Cheers.

[rcturner2] 05/6/2017 09:17

lab, the problem with that argument is why did they choose Carillion?

If a group of shorters were going to launch a concerted attack on a company, surely it would be logical that they would choose the target very carefully, not at random?

[wallywoo] 05/6/2017 09:17

steve 18.45p last year. Click the financials tab and scroll down for full divi history.

The question remains can this divi be sustained. In a nutshell you have the battle between the shorters and shareholders

[stevenrevell] 05/6/2017 09:11

Does this pay a divi

[pjt105] 04/6/2017 21:54

11% is this the 'm' chart you mean?


Hope he's right about 200 being the bottom.

[11_percent] 04/6/2017 17:31

CLLN,

The share price descended to say 175p, in 2009.
The share price then went to say 410p in 2011.
The share price then descended to 230p, (perfect head and shoulders)
Then up to 390p.
Then down to 300p...where we are now.

Look at the other charts.....200p is it.

[11_percent] 04/6/2017 17:13

Post number 8435.

This is Fingers analysis of CLLN chart.

Read what he has said, but above all, you MUST look at the - 9 year "monthly chart" to understand what is going on.

Have a look, you will be gob smacked.

300p is a very important number.

------------

If anyone could cut and paste the chart, it would be appreciated.

[11_percent] 04/6/2017 16:59

yump,

You have a point.

But now we have reached a point where the divi is good, news is good, and peeps are starting to buy.
y back
There is a guy called fingers, has his own BB here on ADVFN.

He posted an anlysis, 300p is a piviot point, from away back.

[yump] 04/6/2017 15:24

Drive price down.
Buy back cheap.
Wait for the bid.
Buy some more on the basis more than one bid will occur.
Sell out to the highest bidder.
Win on the down and then the up.
(Allegedly)

[lab305] 04/6/2017 12:59

There is of course a third explanation which you do not subscribe to​ . That is that around 14 large hedge funds acted together over a period short selling the stock. This very act has created a self fulfilling prophecy by forcing down the share price and casting doubt and uncertainty amongst existing and would be investors. Hence the ridiculous valuation that we see today. They were not gambling in the dark ,more like a racing certainty.

[rcturner2] 04/6/2017 09:06

red, one reason is that the share is heavily shorted

the shorters are either gambling in the dark or they believe that there are some serious problems here

[kcsham] 02/6/2017 21:52

11-percent, I agree with you that if the share price goes lower, it will attract predators.The shorters are walking on a very fine line.K C

[red5] 02/6/2017 17:36

Why is this share price so low

[red5] 02/6/2017 17:35

Why is this share price so low

[pjt105] 01/6/2017 21:04

inchp re RNS - the voting rights increased from 5% to 6%. Not sure that it would send the share price up nearly 5p today, probably political.

[11_percent] 01/6/2017 18:09

The share price is going up.

The shorters might be changing their scam.

Now low enough, for the take-over.