Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 28/8/2019 21:26

And don't knock it - it was a great money printing machine for many years :)

[williamcooper104] 28/8/2019 21:25

Yep - it wasn't a short pile on - it was a long run

[williamcooper104] 28/8/2019 21:24

Mf - problem is that a lot of that growth comes from one case The issue with fair value is less it's subjective nature and more that it allows the mega Peterson win to be spread over multiple years so that it doesn't look like exceptional earnings Then there's the whole debate on whether it should be valued as an investment trust rather than an operating business (which would get you to a c£5-7 share price range

[henchard] 28/8/2019 21:01

riverman,

"the market doesn't always behave rationally in the short term"

Certainly agree with you on that. Sometimes it can be far too pessimistic and sometimes far too optimistic. In the latter case, not just when a stock is making a new frothy all-time high. The market can still be far too optimistic when a stock's fallen 50%, 60%, 70%, if the real value of the business is actually even lower.

mf,

"People are perhaps wondering whether the valuation should be based on NAV or profits"

I'd agree that's part of what's going on.

[mad foetus] 28/8/2019 20:55

I don't think any facts about BUR have changed. People are perhaps wondering whether the valuation should be based on NAV or profits, and there is a debate to be had there.

[henchard] 28/8/2019 20:52

mf,

I can't see anyone would have opened a short at £4. Indeed, it's remarkable that BUR's crash has come with such a low level of institutional short positions.

My guess is that a lot of shareholders who, on superficial research, previously thought BUR was a non-cyclical, virtually risk-free, cash-printing machine have had their eyes opened by recent events and dumped their shares.

I wouldn't like to guess, or certainly put money on, whether long is the better bet at the £7-£8 level.

[riverman77] 28/8/2019 20:46

Well the market doesn't always behave rationally in the short term, and is clearly still in the grip of fear. I expect sentiment to remain weak for some time and don't expect a proper recovery anytime soon (perhaps another year or two, unless there are some major positive developments).

[mad foetus] 28/8/2019 20:33

I know, it's the biggest screaming buy you will ever see. How long can a company grow at 40%pa and smash analyst expectations every time before the market reflects its true value? Takes 2 views to make a market, just as longs were wrong at £20, shorts were wrong at £4, right now...my guess is long is the better bet

[henchard] 28/8/2019 20:12

Over 50% wiped off BUR's share price (and over £1.1bn off the company's market value) since before the first MW report.

Bulls are adamant BUR has fully rebutted the allegations and say MW's subsequent missives have been 'weak', 'desperate', 'like the rantings of some mad conspiracy theorist' etc. How come the share price has failed to recover? At all?

[riverman77] 28/8/2019 19:58

Finally got round to reading the latest MW allegations. Surprised quite how flimsy it is. Sounds like the rantings of some mad conspiracy theorist. Not surprised Burford didn't respond as it would be like trying to have a serious debate with some drunken idiot in the pub. Good to see the market chose to completely ignore this.

[williamcooper104] 28/8/2019 15:55

Yep - not sure about £4 but Bur has always been a much higher beta stock than you might have thought So it's not a safe harbour

[borg45] 28/8/2019 15:40

I wonder why I had you on filter lol ?

[porsche1945] 28/8/2019 15:12

no strong red finish as it heads to sub 4 quid again over next few weeks, uk markets tanked anyway thanks to brexit shxxshow and this another dodgy Aim listed Woodford/Invesco disaster.

[pal44] 28/8/2019 15:10

what Tf another Shake coming !!!

[shallwe] 28/8/2019 14:55

What a beautifully carried out tree shake. Loads of stop losses triggered.

[1corrado] 28/8/2019 14:53

BOUGHT AT 698 800P TO FINISH 900P BY FRIDAY.

[mbdx7em21] 28/8/2019 14:52

strong blue finish?

[edmondj] 28/8/2019 14:49

Possibly those institutions who bought in via last October's £193 million placing at 1850p a share.

[time_traveller] 28/8/2019 14:41

Bogart, Molot et al aren't going to tolerate the constant attacks much longer - if they can find any means possible, they'll take this business private, and who'd blame them.

I really must get into this day trading lark - (can't be worse than buy and hold)!

[bbmsionlypostafter] 28/8/2019 14:36

265p price target. Mr Valentine has set the price.

[littlepuppi7] 28/8/2019 14:35

Get into gold chaps. It's time is here and srb is a cracking little miner.. this is a day traders paradise!

[bulltradept] 28/8/2019 14:30

AZF price target now £6.69

[mr jam] 28/8/2019 14:25

who are cg?? and what was their previous target? bears totally forgetting this is a nascent industry with years of massive growth ahead... global in size as well. trillion dollar market opportunity

[eentweedrie] 28/8/2019 14:25

Added another 499 at 6.99...