Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[wardy333] 30/8/2019 16:41

Think this reached the bottom earlier today , news from BUR I would think a certainty next Week,could be a very good Week next Week who knows.
The latest attacks have not worked, they are running out of gas for sure.

[adnan17] 30/8/2019 16:39

Henchard - on page 10 of the 2019 half year financial statements it states that it had received $126m in cash from the receivables, but this was after 30th June 2018.

So if you add $126 + $232.5 you get $358.5m. However, you can then also add "Cash Management Investments", which are investments in short term debt instruments. So adding $358.5m + $43.8m gives $402.3m.

[adnan17] 30/8/2019 16:34

William, am I missing something?

Does the $400m of available cash currently available not cover the current investment commitments? It is sufficient?

It does not need to raise debt to cover its investment commitments?

They only needed to raise debt to grow at the exponential rate it was growing. Maybe a slowdown for the next 2 years is just what it needs.

[henchard] 30/8/2019 16:31

adnan, thanks, $400m cash and cash equivalents is a nice increase on the $232m at the last balance sheet date (30 June).

[williamcooper104] 30/8/2019 16:27

And actually given all that - they've got the right CFO (arguably)

[yidarmytom] 30/8/2019 16:26

thanks Tom

[williamcooper104] 30/8/2019 16:26

It's not so much that Bur is going to run out of operating cashflow - it's no where near insolvent However it has massive investment commitments/opportunities to fund - the sov money (IIRC) requires Bur to invest too Previously management had suggested that they could just raise more debt But the problem with elavated bond yields is that that market could be closed Which would mean that the company would need to raise equity And in the current environment that might require a discounted rights issue - which would push down the share price (Of course on the back of a few big cash wins and improved governance/listing this may not be the case) That's the argument - truth is that we don't know what's discretionary investment and what's committed It's also possible that the company could raise third party equity to fund their commitments (but some co-investment commitments may not be capable of being funded off-balance sheet) This is a risk - but if the worst happens and you get hit with a rights issue you should just subscribe and then if the company performs you will be fine - so it's more of a risk if you a short term holder

[onjohn] 30/8/2019 16:24

More myddy water coming

[adnan17] 30/8/2019 16:23

Here is the source. It was in their response to Muddy Waters. In addition you can work it on by analyzing the financial statements. But the above link is crystal clear.

[adnan17] 30/8/2019 16:21

Trident - no it does not. That was my point 2. Commitments to continue fund cases. They have $400m to continue with their commitment to fund cases.

What my analysis omitted was further capital raises from the Sovereign Wealth Fund. Who are not that interested in the share price. Just a return on their cases. So a further positive.

[henchard] 30/8/2019 16:21

adnan,

"1. Right now as of today Burford have $400m of cash."

If you could give me your source for that figure, I might be able to answer mryl's request "out of interest, anyone with an educated view on the bear case to answer adnan's post?"

[mad foetus] 30/8/2019 16:18

Most of the commitments can be made by funds rather than balance sheet though

[mryl] 30/8/2019 16:17

trident, could you please elaborate further?

[trident5] 30/8/2019 16:15

Adnan - your analysis completely overlooks the commitments.

[mryl] 30/8/2019 16:06

thank you Adnan. I fully agree with you.

out of interest, anyone with an educated view on the bear case to answer adnan's post? I'm interested in hearing out a short and objective answer of the opposite viewpoint.

[adnan17] 30/8/2019 16:00

Over on LSE there is a lot of chat about Burford running out of cash. More fear-mongering. Lets go through this.

1. Right now as of today Burford have $400m of cash.

2. They can easily use that cash to continue funding cases. If you look at their concluded investment portfolio, the funding requirements are only a few million in most costs.

3. Their next debt maturity is in August 2022, where they need to pay £90m.

4. From now until August 2022 (i.e. 3 years), how many cases are they likely to win. My guess is a lot. So that cash position will increase dramatically. Possibly even to $700-800m. And I am being conservative, given their historic win rate.

Completely unbelievable to suggest a company that has a market cap of £1.5bn and $400m of cash to suggest it is going to run out of cash.

[mhassanriaz] 30/8/2019 15:55

Upside from here onward. Expecting some news from BUR very very soon. They will not sit quietly.

[ozzmosiz] 30/8/2019 15:50

Changed your tune Wallywoo:

wallywoo - 08 Aug 2019 - 08:53:31 - 7912 of 12438 BURFORD CAPITAL :::::::::::::::::::::::::: Litigation Funding - BUR
Dipped my toe in here at 585 for a flutter. Looks good value at the same valuation as 3 years ago when earnings and investments were all much lower. Expect a bounce over the next month or 2, when the market is back from holidays!

[wallywoo] 30/8/2019 15:49

The problem is here from a technical analysis point, the share price is likely to get close to 600 again before it likely reverses. I think this will just drift down for another few days yet.

[ozzmosiz] 30/8/2019 15:41

Recent purchases

Hugh Wilson (deputy chairman)
25000 (797.55p) + 29410 (703p) = owns 254,410

Jonathan Molot (CIO)
690,606 + 250,000 (765p) & 350,643 (856p) owns 9.5 million

[mryl] 30/8/2019 15:30

Didn't directors buy something like £8m worth of shares since the drop? it would obviously be nice to see some more pdmr buys but that's already pretty significant isn't it?

[borg45] 30/8/2019 15:23

Could do with some director buys to give it some momentum

[wardy333] 30/8/2019 14:33

I think they will be busier looking through the letters and complaints about him and M/W.

[yidarmytom] 30/8/2019 14:22

I agree, there's no better market manipulator and fraudster than that horrid little twerp