Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[375uv] 24/11/2023 20:52

Milei can privatize or put as guarantee 26% of the shares owned by the Federal Government quite more easily than privatize or put as guarantee the 25% owned by provinces which is a more difficult task. Both need to go through Congress, but the first one requires less work.

[bradvert] 24/11/2023 19:59

Interesting article giving background to the potential YPF privatisation (from the English language arm of Madrid's El Pais)I hadn't realised that several provinces own 49% of the Argentine government's 51% stake in YPF...https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-11-24/the-complications-of-mileis-plan-to-privatize-ypf-in-argentina-a-pending-payment-of-16-billion.html

[this tea tastes of chicken] 24/11/2023 14:51

Thanksgiving over. YPF $17.37. +15.3%

[this tea tastes of chicken] 23/11/2023 08:28

There’ll be no mood today, it’s shut for Thanksgiving.

[riverman77] 22/11/2023 14:48

Don't follow this closely now but surprised this has not risen more today. Took the opportunity to add a few this morning anyway as seems a very positive development.

[kuk1doh] 22/11/2023 09:29

Argentina is hardly known for respecting its own prospectus's covenants… the irony that this would now be the barrier.

[syoun2] 22/11/2023 09:26

Deadlines are good we have 5th December for agreeing to Judges terms, 10th December for Javier Milei to take office & he’s going to want to make a statement to the markets fairly quickly so what would be better than commitment to sorting this out. This should hopefully make price gains a bit more sticky.
Any thoughts on the calendar of events for the appeal. (If it happens)Do they go through same steps as normal US court cases & who sets the various dates.Also is it a different judge or the same.
I can see that snowball rolling down the mountain picking up speed and size very quickly. Happy days

[stentorian] 22/11/2023 09:25

...they can nationalise at the drop of a hat...let the squirming commence

[375uv] 22/11/2023 09:14

From Seb:

"Any future transfer of the shares owned by the Federal Government and by the Provinces is prohibited without the permission of the Argentine congress by a vote of two-thirds of its members. Moreover, I believe that the Negative Pledge covenant in YPF's bond prospectus, prevents the pledge of shares w/o the consent of shareholders."

[chester9] 22/11/2023 08:10

I always wait to 2:15 as US gets into mood. London deliberately slow to accept Burford.

[nigelpm] 22/11/2023 08:07

£!6 by close - lol - we do get some fantasists on here.

[lomax99] 22/11/2023 08:03

Miserly reaction by share price at the moment, can't quite see £16 by close.

[chester9] 22/11/2023 07:49

Bringing 5th into play before Milei takes over on 10th is an interesting move by Judge Preska. Guided.

[chester9] 22/11/2023 07:46

They have until the 5th December.

[chester9] 22/11/2023 07:20

Love the equity interest in YPF though very smart

[chester9] 22/11/2023 07:14

NEW YORK, Nov 21 - A U.S. judge on Tuesdaygranted Argentina's request that she not enforce a $16.1 billionjudgment arising from the government's 2012 seizure of amajority control in state-controlled oil company YPF YPFD.BAwhile the cash-strapped country appeals the judgment.U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska in Manhattan agreed totemporarily stay the judgment without requiring Argentina topost a bond, but said the country will need to pledge its equityinterest in YPF plus some receivables.

[chester9] 22/11/2023 07:13

That's disappointing

[kuk1doh] 22/11/2023 06:43

In reality we all know these assets will not be lodged with the court just to hand them over to Burford once the appeal fails, as it inevitably will, a year from now.

It now feels like Argentina will be at the negotiating table early in the new year, with both parties pausing appeal and enforcement. I’m certain Burford has a multitude of options for Argentina to consider to settle this in a constructive, sustainable way.

Game, set, match by March 24? Too ambitious?

[djderry] 22/11/2023 01:25

I've just viewed the court docket.This is tremendous news.Judge Preska has granted defendants appeal for a stay of enforcement provided they grant plaintiffs' their equity in YPF (51%,ie,that which is not owned by the Provinces)as collateral. This is beautiful! We now have a direct line into YPF' s income stream.Unbelievable! Also the Republic must pledge their receivables from the Yacyreta project.And,listen to this,it's got to be to plaintiffs' satisfaction and,wait for it,a condition for granting the stay without posting the bond.
To use a sporting analogy, Defendants are snookered!
In all practical terms,YPF and its income streams have been attached.
And,obviously I don't need to tell anyone this,the Yacyreta project is a stream of income ( circa $ 4 billion dollars that Paraguay owes to Argentina to be paid over 30 years.But you knew that!
Once securitised,that's worth $ 2 billion today.
So,Judge Preska has called Argentina's bluff.Their defence was ( and,perhaps I am guilty of oversimplification here,but permit me,this is a beautiful day!),' we ain't got no money,guv'.Well,says Judge Preska,'I've found some income streams for you!
And,as the wise philosopher once said,I kid you not; the defendants must seek an expedited ruling from the Appeal Court! The days of kicking the can,sorry,oil company,down the road,are over.
£16 by close.
( If I were very bold,I'd say,Milei,you wanted YPF privatised,well,now you've got it!
But I'm not.
So I won't. )

[stentorian] 22/11/2023 00:37

"In lieu of a bond and as a condition to a stay of execution the Republic shall pledge to Plaintiffs, in a form satisfactory to Plaintiffs' counsel
(1) its equity interest in YPF (that is, the interest not earmarked for the Argentine Provinces), and
(2) its receivables under the Yacyreta project.."

60% of Argentina's HEP capacity


51% of YPF is worth $2-3bn.
It seems that an additional $4 billion in payments owed by Paraguay to Argentina over the next 30 years for the Yacyretá Dam, if securitized, would yield an additional $2 billion in value today, according to the judge.

This reminds me of the plot in James Bond film Quantum of Solace

[bradvert] 22/11/2023 00:31

To clarify; he tweeted about the dilemma of the date Preska has chosen as I did, but he knows considerably more about the context.. "Argentina has until December 5 to deposit guarantee. He's not going to do it.President-elect Milei takes office on December 10.I recommend that the beneficiaries of the ruling not begin embargoes on December 5 and begin talking to the person or persons appointed by the president-elect "soon."There are ways to solve this. There is a desire to talk"

[bradvert] 22/11/2023 00:15

Haha Seb just posted the same thought a few minutes ago :)

[bradvert] 22/11/2023 00:05

And crucially it has to happen in the next two weeks, or the stay lapses and enforcement begins.Meaning the existing and outgoing administration would need to put it in place. Or not.. The politics of it are beyond me!.

[warno01] 21/11/2023 23:53

Follow up - Preska orders Argentina to post other assets