Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[lomax99] 12/11/2023 13:31

Transcript of earnings call:Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/burford-capital-limited-nyse-bur-204755150.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFCmT3emniae8jS9eIEc9ZZJItpslpc0FEI3JVNVnTYMyYKAaTCwLA2epH3HaB5SDSiwrmZ4EmkNmmB7eXuyL57FxWV2JHDbGjV69coy5v5aAE3cB1dMT_zIa-3_l-LpULuOTTdgTdkZrJsmo_5iNIS1sL7wj4jHQxuR73gLFRkG

[futurekid] 11/11/2023 05:46

First buy was c£5.50 then bought all the way up to £9 to watch it drop to £5.50 again after the SEC nonsense earlier this year! As with a few others BUR is now my largest holding.

[gettingrichslow] 10/11/2023 22:28

Hi FutureKid, if you invested in mid 2020 I’m guessing you got in at c.£3! What a bargain that was when you look at it now, and yet there weren’t many buyers out there at the time.

[futurekid] 10/11/2023 21:13

Hello fellow investors.. Been invested in BUR since mid 2020. I've always enjoyed reading the very sensible and balanced comments on this chat group. Nice 4% rose in the US today .. onwards and upwards

[scubadiverr] 10/11/2023 20:55

Argentina - History of problems https://youtu.be/4wSkt8m5QaI?si=eGAZAdG9uMrh_p5fWell worth a watch if interested in Argentine politics and the upcoming elections.

[coyy] 10/11/2023 17:21

Maddox I think you have summed up the Presentation yesterday perfectly.
Burford is my largest position despite losing a material sum in 2019 after the Muddy Waters attack.
The numbers have always been complicated by the very nature of the business but as it matures even its critics must surely see that this is a veritable cash machine

[lomax99] 10/11/2023 16:51

Another Burford investment.......Https://www.arctictoday.com/chinese-linked-australian-mining-company-sues-greenland-for-billions-of-usd-over-lost-revenue/

[bradvert] 09/11/2023 21:53

I like that - I will from now evaluate Burford's potential partially in terms of humdingers!And my aside to you was meant to be humorous, but reading it back I see it could have seemed curt or strident. Apologies here, we're all in it together!

[maddox] 09/11/2023 21:44

I fully agree Donald they need to present the results with far more clarity - more concise - greater focus and remove the clutter. Then keep to the same format - not keep changing the slides and presentation. What was presented as percentages last time are $ figures this.

There is a huge amount of data in these results but looking at it it's awfully confusing - is it 3Q or 9M? Is it consolidated (including the funds) or Burford-only - is YPF in or out?!?!?! It's all jumbled-up together so Christ they're hard work.

And after all the effort(and flak they've taken)developing the Fair Value Accounting methodology; Chris Bogart essentially says it's all accounting mumbo-jumbo - "I'd really focus your attention on the cash".

Great results - spectacular figures but unfortunately too complicated presentation to effectively communicate to Mr Market the huge value on offer here. YPF will thus remain the focus - distracting attention away from the underlying money machine.

[laughton] 09/11/2023 21:13

Apologies - and as said, you hear what you want to hear.

Although, as a very long term holder, what I really wanted him to say - "Oooh yes, just wait a little longer as we have another humdinger coming down the track".

[kuk1doh] 09/11/2023 20:15

So my instinctive take on his answer was “yes, we’ve a cracker in the works” in careful CEO speak in the midst of a live litigation… why?: well… he opened with the question and they could so easily have ignored that question… He said “it fair to say… it’s unusual”, not “unlikely̶1; or “unthinkable”, “the likes of which will never be seen again”.

So he brought it up voluntarily on the call, confirmed it is reasonable to presume it is a probable, but not frequent, occurrence and left the door wide open on the possibility there’s one in progress. And we know he is well able to say “no!”

We hear what we want to hear… 😎

[donald pond] 09/11/2023 20:03

That is literally saying nothing! As you say, a classic politicians answer

[bradvert] 09/11/2023 19:51

That was a classic politician's answer - talking around the issue without addressing the actual question of whether anything such was in prospect or in process. laughton - none of what you construed is suggested by the text below - I think you must have been on a different call!'We'll start with a question from the webcast from Paul de Gruchy which is basically well, it has always been Burford's policy to not talk about individual cases. Are there any cases currently progressing that have potential to produce returns of a similar size to YPF? So, you're right that we don't really talk about individual cases but I think it's fair to say that when we contemplate you know a case that has at least the potential to deliver you know billions of dollars plural to Burford depending on the ultimate outcome of that case, that I think is an unusual case for us.'

[laughton] 09/11/2023 17:09

I heard it a bit different Donald. He said that if there was such a settlement in the offing then they would have to give some details but said he hasn't anything more to add.

I take that to mean "no".

I'll have to listen again to make sure.

[pymadams] 09/11/2023 17:08

And from the court documents about Carina Ventures southern district case, 4:23-cv-02685 we learn: "After the assignment agreement was executed, but before this action was filed, Carina and Sysco filed joint motions to substitute Carina for Sysco in the Broilers, Pork, and Beef Litigations. See Broilers Litig., ECF No. 6630 (Jun. 28, 2023); Pork Litig., ECF No. 1940 (Jun. 29, 2023); Beef Litig., ECF No. 277 (Jun. 29, 2023). Defendants in those cases have filed oppositions, based upon champerty and public-policy arguments. Those substitution motions are still pending." and also that Amory Investments LLC is another Burford owned entity which is part of the class actions in Illinois regarding other parts of the turkey litigation. So there's a lot going on.
There's a settings hearing on 11/30 to see if the Carina Ventures case will stay in Texas.

[somerset lad] 09/11/2023 16:52

DP, I don't know why Chris took your question given that the non-committal response.

On Sysco, have you seen the Powerpoint from Greenhaven (referenced in their investor letter)?

I can see how you might get to a $6bn valuation. Sysco's US poultry foodservice revenues in FY22 were $5.7bn. Crudely, assume a 5% uplift from the alleged cartel (noting that the uplift is to Sysco's input costs, not their revenues), multiply by 3 for treble damages, and by 8 for duration (2012-2019) and you're there.

On the other hand, BUR invested $140m in what was presumably a competitive situation. (It's a large sum but the Brazilian tailings class action shows that others can stump up large sums.) If so, assume BUR expected to realise a gain of $140m over 3 years (ROIC 100%, IRR c. 27%). If BUR negotiated a 30% cut of any award, this implies an expected value of the claim of 280 / 0.3 = $933m.

[chester9] 09/11/2023 16:35

What happens if Judge Preska says they do not have to wait? Bond or Burford start to collect. Not sure I would be sitting out. That said if she goes other way you may be right.

[donald pond] 09/11/2023 16:19

The market doesn't get it because they don't explain it. I asked if they had any other big claims that could be worth a billion and he fudged a one line answer. He must know all the speculation about Sysco so why not say "we do have a potentially very significant case but it is at a very early stage etc". The market will only "get" what is spelled out to it.

[nigelpm] 09/11/2023 16:15

Or the market just doesn't get it - probably less likely but possible.

[donald pond] 09/11/2023 16:13

I dunno. I feel these calls are always the same. "We are doing so well, we are paying ourselves lots but it's non cash so ignore that, stellar this, very confident that" but if that is all true and the share price is still half of what it was 5 years ago maybe more humility and less hubris is needed. Either it's not going that well or they aren't communicating it that well. Because it can't be both.

[djderry] 09/11/2023 16:04

Impressive conference call.Chris Bogart summed it up well; Burford having a ' blow-out' year.Stellar results with all parts of the largest litigation portfolio performing.
Poor Portia from Cannacord looking for quarterly guidance,does she understand anything about this asset class? It's litigation! It doesn't run on a quarterly basis!
When asking why Q3 commitments and deployments were less that Q2,Chris had to point out the $320 million commitment to a certain matter in June.Portia,they're not like buses,they don't ( necessarily) come around in pairs!

[syoun2] 09/11/2023 15:53

Sold half my large position & will buy back in after normal drift down. Hope to get back on at under £10

[williamcooper104] 09/11/2023 13:34

Yep Me too It's not Burfords fault; but MtM accounting adds more confusion than clarity

[tradertrev] 09/11/2023 13:04

My largest position by far, held since just after IPO and intend holding for many more years yet.
Personally the 3rd quarter results appear largely meaningless - large increase in FV as expected, continuing net investment in the growth of the business.
It doesn't feel like there is much catch up in court activity yet from the point of view of finalised cases. One has to hope that the traditional year-end seasonal boost to realisations from settlements makes a comeback.

[djderry] 09/11/2023 12:52

My initial reaction is that income, realisations,ebitda,commitments,deployments are extremely impressive.Fair value gains of circa $460 million on YPF,added to earlier $773 seem nicely conservative.There is also a couple of hundred million of unrelated fair value gains,which is pleasing.The rest of the portfolio is performing.
The only ( minor) issue is that the fund management fees don't seem to have increased much but I presume that's just the nature of the ' European waterfall' sequencing of fee payments.
Very impressed and,although it goes without saying,extremely undervalued.Should double in a year or so.