Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[donald pond] 10/10/2023 08:03

I'm not sure how close Mithras are to the SWF. That may be relevant. They seem very long term investors

[extrader] 09/10/2023 16:52

I'm curious as to why barely 50% of the firepower has been deployed so far?

DAK what the 'eligibility criteria' are? And what is expected to change, going forward, to warrant the extension?

It's not as though BUR would be significantly de-risking its Argentina exposure(in the event of a settlement) by parking it in this vehicle, if it is still on the hook for 75%...

Any insights appreciated!
ATB

[djderry] 09/10/2023 15:28

Very positive announcement re the continuation of the SWF arrangement,with Burford's balance sheet continuing to take 75% of the higher return assets.

[extrader] 09/10/2023 13:31

Joining the dots?

;->

Ho hum

[fegger] 09/10/2023 12:39

Burford new agreement -should be able to deploy further capital - hxxps://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/burford-capital-expands-and-further-extends-sovereign-wealth-fund-arrangement-301950702.html

[extrader] 09/10/2023 12:20

Seb Maril's latest - v succinct:

A smirky grin GIF of President Xi with the comment

'Don't even think about it'.

I wonder what that's all about?

ATB

[extrader] 09/10/2023 09:24

Indeed!

That's not 'any' Lacunza, that would be THIS Lacunza :

.."Jorge Roberto Hernán Lacunza (born February 25, 1969) is an Argentine economist, appointed in 2019 as Minister of the Treasury of the Mauricio Macri administration'...

Anybody would think he wanted to shut down discussion....

[375uv] 07/10/2023 22:39

That “someone”; who replied to Seb is the former Minister of Finance.

Moderators can ask whatever they want if they feel like. All questions are supposed to come from the National Commission of Presidential Debates. In other words, they can ask whatever they want.

Former Minister Lacunza should know this.

[extrader] 07/10/2023 17:16

Not much of which will be taken on board by the voters.

Seb's latest :

[There's a 'period for reflection' pre polling that stops news coverage/electioneering].

"[Let's have] fewer comments about Insaurralde and more questions from the moderators about the trials that have cost us fortunes:

- YPF

- Holdouts

- GDP Coupon

- Argentinian airlines

- ICSID

Last opportunity to know the opinions of the candidates."

Someone points out: the moderators don't set the questions....

'Mushroom treatment'.

[donald pond] 07/10/2023 15:21

I'm sure that's what Preska will say.It was your choice to list YPF in NYYour choice to include detailed provisions governing nationalisation Your choice to nationalise, when you knew the precise costYour choice to not pay the pre agreed amountYour choice to not negotiate Your choice to delay, knowing the likely interest rateNow you can't come along and ask for leniency. You knew exactly what your liability would be and you made a calculated decision to risk it. Tough.

[lomax99] 07/10/2023 14:17

Let's hope Preska is made of sterner stuff, Argentina has lead us on merry dance for the last 8+ years.....

[375uv] 07/10/2023 13:20

Extrader, Seb Tweeted before that Argentina successfully used the 'economic hardship' argument during a recent litigation in London and said that he expected Argentina to use the same tactic with Preska. Judge Simon Picken bought the argument and prevented four hedge funds from enforcing the judgment until the appeal has been decided.

[papy02] 07/10/2023 12:39

NP Extrader.

I found this bit interesting - looks like Burford request caught them on the hop? (My bold)

“Plaintiffs217; attempt to ‘expedite the start’ of enforcement proceedings must be rejected, particularly in light of the Argentine Republic’s anticipated motion to suspend execution of the enormous judgment in this case,” the request began.

Burford using Napoleon’s (*) “the best form of defence is attack”. :-)

Edit: (*) maybe not Napoleon on googling it !

[extrader] 07/10/2023 11:55

Thanks Papy02,

Corrects my guesstimated date, to 16 October.
Not sure about this bit, though

."The writing was shared by Sebastián Maril, an analyst at Latam Advisors who follows the case, through his account on the strategy he used before the English courts a little over a month ago..."

My understanding was that Seb had merely noted the 'economic hardship' tactic used by someone else and wondered whether Argentina would follow suit here...

ATB

[extrader] 07/10/2023 11:17

PS Didn't somebody suggest that BUR's tactic/reply might be a 'goodwill' compromise,in which it recognised all of the above... and suggest that a bond for $4-5 Bn would be a compromise way forward...

AFAICS, BUR asked for a 30 day 'grace period' before it could start enforcement, back on 22 September.

First round of the elections is on Sunday 22 October.

Popcorn at the ready.

[extrader] 07/10/2023 10:30

Check out his latest tweets : " I told you so".
Argentina claiming that they can't pay judgement:



Arg: "Paying would impose irreversible harm on the pop already suffering from high inflation and eco consequences of a severe drought."

Argentina: "The Republic currently does not have the ability to issue public debt on the international capital markets.”

Argentina: "Under Argentine law, the only payments the government can make in the current year are those included in the budget approved by Congress".

Argentina: "[The $ 16Bn] bond represents 20% of the Republic’s annual budget".

Argentina asks J. Preska for a pre-motion conference to waive the bond requirement to appeal w/o risking embargoes...

Seb is too kind to point to the Argentine comment that the appeal bond market is finite and would have difficulty accommodating 'even to judgment debtors with excellent credit'.

Argentina also mentions the 30 BUR attachment experts - bailiffs, to you and me - it would have to go after for recovery, in the event of a successful appeal.

Back to Preska....

[papy02] 06/10/2023 10:22

It might make sense to grant a stay till shortly after the elections, to allow the incoming administration time to decide their position.

But I get the impression Judge Preska is running low on patience, specially if Argentina manage to rile her if and when they make a request for “a relatively unusual stay”. (Or maybe the exchange over whether 30 days should apply constitutes that request?).

[papy02] 05/10/2023 19:34

Here are the complete paras from Apr2 RNS that I quoted from: (my bold, to clarify a couple of different points raised above):

Once the Court issues its final judgment, that judgment will be appealable as of right to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals and based on past practice it would be surprising if Argentina did not appeal. After seeing Argentina’s appeal, Plaintiffs would decide whether to cross-appeal the dismissal of YPF.

The Second Circuit presently is taking around a year to resolve appeals once filed, although there is meaningful deviation from that mean. The District Court’s judgment would be enforceable while the appeal is pending unless Argentina posts a bond to secure its performance, which we consider unlikely, or unless a court grants a relatively unusual stay.

[tradertrev] 05/10/2023 19:18

Seems pretty clear - they can appeal without posting a bond, but they can't ask for a stay of enforcement proceedings unless they post a bond.

[planit2] 05/10/2023 18:59

"The District Court’s judgment would be enforceable while the appeal is pending unless Argentina posts a bond"

This part doesn't make sense unless they can appeal without the bond.

[time_traveller] 05/10/2023 18:51

I don't think that is saying they think it likely that appeal would be allowed without a bond, but that is unlikely Argentina could source funds for a bond?

[papy02] 05/10/2023 17:59

Apr 2 announcement:



...based on past practice it would be surprising if Argentina did not appeal....

...The District Court’s judgment would be enforceable while the appeal is pending unless Argentina posts a bond to secure its performance, which we consider unlikely, or unless a court grants a relatively unusual stay.

Shorter versions in Sept RNS, presentations etc.

[lomax99] 05/10/2023 16:43

I must admit I was under the impression that they needed to post a bond if they wanted to appeal.