Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[maddox] 18/10/2023 10:41

Watching the Rugby World Cup and Argentina playing in a large French stadium - I was struck by the huge number of Argentinian fans - the pale blue and white looked to be dominant. It appears that whilst the country is pretty much bankrupt it's populace isn't.

[maddox] 18/10/2023 10:34

Hi Dead Duck Resources

Yes say more - your post 25123 only points out that Chris Bogart preferred cash accounting rather than fair value accounting - as do I.

However, when the SEC say we've decided upon a methodology that needs to be followed, you have no choice, you follow it and make prior adjustments to reflect the changes. Your auditors aren't going to approve anything less.

[stentorian] 18/10/2023 10:12

thanks alter ego for the link to the Guardian article:

"In addition to creating environmental and social problems, critics say, Vaca Muerta has not brought the benefits to people promised by the authorities. Argentina’s rate of inflation is 124%, poverty is increasing but the government continues to hand out large subsidies to the energy industry.

A reservoir in a mountainous landscape Peru’s melting glaciers bring new harvests – and fears for the future Caratori says: “Vaca Muerta is being sold as the future. They are saying we can flood the world with our energy, but at the same time [the companies] are saying they need public investment to build a pipeline, [with] fixed prices in dollars. I can’t believe both statements.”

Slipak says: “Ten years ago, Vaca Muerta was a promise, and politicians today are saying it is the future. But Vaca Muerta was the future 10 years ago. If you go to Neuquén today, 37% of families live in poverty.”

[alter ego] 18/10/2023 08:43

Lengthy article about Vaca Muerta in today's Guardian. No mention of BUR.



“For Argentine politicians, Vaca Muerta is the golden goose and the one thing that would save our economy. I think that idea has been successfully passed into the minds of many people on the street,”

[saltraider] 18/10/2023 07:10

That is my understanding, DP.

It seems to me that the prescribed approach is far too sensitive to short-term fluctuations in interest rates. A more robust approach would have been to require the use of a moving average rate which would significantly dampen fluctuations in valuation/profits.

[donald pond] 18/10/2023 06:42

DDR but isn't the change all down to the discount rate applied to future earnings? In other words, as rates start dropping likely to be sharply reversed. And nothing to do with actual cash returns?

[dead duck resources] 17/10/2023 22:24

Extrader,
your post 25232 quoted a December 2021 RNS, the quote re: IFRS was from that same RNS.

Maddox,
post 25123 had my thoughts on the restatement, Q1 $67.5m profit restated as -$15m loss
need I say more? There were some posters here who even commented the results were good
with those posts getting thumbs up, while comments suggesting the results are bad seem to be met with bewilderment. The market reaction corroborates the latter point of view.

[extrader] 17/10/2023 17:22

Hi djderry,

You mentioned Quinn Emmanuel in the Credit Suisse AT1 context, suggesting (I think) obliquely that they have a working relationshiop with BUR.

Seb's latest may set the cat amongst certain (fat) pigeons :
QE has an NY Court order forcing certain banks to disclose identities of 'politically exposed persons' from the Province of Buenos Aires (PBA)who've had dealings in amounts over $ 25K in the last 7 years...

Sebastian Maril
@SebastianMaril
🔴 Quinn Emanuel (representatives of funds suing PBA) confirms that BoNY and Pershing will hand over data related to transfers made by Argentine officials categorised as Priority 1 in a list published last week.

These transfers, if they exist, relate to transactions made in the last 7 years for sums in excess of USD 25,000.

Quinn Emanuel clarifies that it has already received information on transfers made by public officials. If the officials' funds are found to be public funds, they can be seized.

We note that the Glacial Capital, LLC and TRSE Holdings, LLC funds are seeking to collect USD 35 million from a provincial bond lawsuit.

Interesting times.

[maddox] 17/10/2023 15:52

Hi Dead Duck Resources,

What in your opinion was so bad about the restatement?

[kirkie001] 17/10/2023 10:16

Burford SEC filings:

hxxps://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=0001714174

[extrader] 17/10/2023 09:14

Hi SK Tom84.
Snap!

Dead Duck Resources29 Sep '23 - 00:07 - 25234 of 25318
0 0 0
Extrader, thanks for the info.[Ed.: clarifying with ref to RNS's that BUR had initiated GAAP move (perhaps MW related?) as far back as 2021]

The move to GAAP may have been Company-led but the restatement that year wasn't due
to GAAP alone as they admitted they should also have reported that way under IFRS;

"On further consideration of the IFRS accounting treatment, we have determined that
also should have been applied to 2019, 2020, 2021"

As to who approached who this time, the various SEC comment letters tell the story.

Extrader29 Sep '23 - 04:02 - 25235 of 25318 Edit
0 1 0
Interesting.

I missed the extension to IFRS, where does your BUR quote from, pls?

And likewise the SEC comment letters, where can I find these?


TIA

[sktom84] 17/10/2023 07:53

Where can I read the correspondence between the SEC and Burford? Thanks!

[dead duck resources] 16/10/2023 21:15

The last quarter results & accounts correction of prior quarter were quite bad imho.
The publicly available SEC correspondence makes interesting reading and a much better accompaniment to understanding the need for those amendments than the reason given by Burford's management who mislead by suggesting it was off their own bat. Questionable and somewhat desperate. Alongside this, with uncertainty over the quantum of recovery from the 'biggest case in history' you could argue the 20% retrace is deserved. There seems a lot riding on the next quarter numbers to show Burford isn't a one-trick pony.

[tnt99] 16/10/2023 20:42

Don't understand win biggest case in history and share price goes down this was 20 pounds not long ago on the possibility of a win But I'm here for the long hall after all the company is buying 10 per cent of their own shares so in my opinion This should break the previous high by the new year

[375uv] 16/10/2023 13:26

From Seb's LinkedIn account.

With less that a week to go before the general elections, Argentines are grappling with the choice of the direction they want their country to take. For the first time since the restoration of democracy in 1983, Latin America's third-largest economy is facing a dilemma in choosing between staying with a government that has disappointed its constituents over the past four years, opting for a government that let down its electorate in the previous administration, or electing an unproven, inexperienced and often controversial party that has emerged with its libertarian ideas, shaking up the political landscape.

The latest average of polls show all three leading candidates are within the margin of error, with 7% of the population still undecided. Argentina is on the brink of undergoing its third consecutive ideological shift in a presidential election. In 2015, locals decided that they had enough of 12 consecutive years of a radical left ideology and threw their support for the center-right candidate, Mauricio Macri. However, following a disappointing presidential term, in 2019, the electorate once again chose the same leftist ideology that it rejected just four years earlier. Today, Argentines look disoriented and are poised to make yet another u-turn as they struggle to find their next leader.

My opinion is that a radical political shift lacking widespread support is bound to be unsuccessful. Argentina’s next leader will have to establish a rapport with the political establishment, labor unions, the private sector of the economy, and, most importantly, the citizenry. For decades, the Republic has been held captive by its own populace, hindering progress and preventing the full utilization of its extensive natural resources, abundant human capital, and overall potential. Those who are not in power consistently desire those in power to experience failure.

The nation confronts a multitude of formidable challenges, including inflation, sluggish economic expansion, mounting public debt, international embargoes resulting from numerous legal disputes, depleted foreign reserves, corruption, and elevated poverty rates, among others. These challenges cannot be tackled by a single individual alone. Argentina's future leader must collaborate with politicians, labor leaders, CEOs, creditors, and beneficiaries of foreign judgments, and additionally, must exhibit the humility to garner the support of every citizen.

This endeavor will undoubtedly be a formidable one.

[1aconic] 16/10/2023 13:09

I've watched both the presidential candidate live debates. YPF seemed conspicuous by its omission. I have mixed feelings which of Bullrich or Milei would be better for BUR but I wouldn't personally want Massa in charge of an asado, let alone the country.
Bullrich has previously said she opposed nationalisation without adherence to the ypf constitution and she thinks the K (Kirchnerism) should pay from their own pockets. Milei seems unpredictable at the best of times.

[extrader] 14/10/2023 18:32

Knives out.

hxxps://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/prosecutor-files-case-argentinas-frontrunner-javier-milei-days-103971903

A prosecutor has launched a criminal case against Argentina’s frontrunner in this month’s presidential elections, accusing Javier Milei of deliberately causing a sharp drop in the Argentine currency when he encouraged citizens not to save in pesos...

President Alberto Fernández had called for the investigation in a complaint filed Wednesday, saying that the right-wing populist candidate was trying to scare the public and that his actions were “a severe affront to the democratic system.”

Prosecutor Franco Picardi on Friday referred a criminal case to a federal judge, going off Fernández's accusation that claimed Milei and other candidates on his party's ticket were inciting public fear — a charge that carries possible prison terms of up to six years. Federal Judge María Servini will later decide whether there is enough evidence to indict.

Milei is considered the frontrunner in the Oct. 22 election, after rocking Argentina’s political landscape when he unexpectedly received the most votes in August primaries that are widely seen as a massive poll of voter preferences.

ATB

[djderry] 13/10/2023 10:39

Re the Quinn Emanuel Urquhart and Sullivan claim on behalf of investors with more than $6 billion of AT1 holdings in Credit Suisse,although I can't confirm it is backed by Burford,it wouldn't surprise me if it was.I suspect that Quinn is the law firm that has circa $367 million of Group-wide capital ( and circa $220 million of Burford-only capital.)
Time will tell.

[extrader] 12/10/2023 08:26

My thanks to BUR's wordsmiths for expanding my vocabulary of American English!

I'd never seen in print before the image they conjured up when describing Argentina's assertion of what faced it as 'the parade of horribles'.

Wikipedia tells me that the phrase 'originally referred to a literal parade of people wearing comic and grotesque costumes, rather like the Philadelphia Mummers Parade. It was a traditional feature of Fourth of July parades in parts of the United States in the 19th century, and "Horribles Parades" continue to be part of the Independence Day celebration in several New England communities'.

Here, by extension, 'a rhetorical device whereby the writer argues against taking a certain course of action by listing a number of extremely undesirable events which will ostensibly result from the action.'

The Motley Fool mission is "to educate, amuse, and enrich.”

BUR is already delivering on the first 2 counts, I look forward to it completing the hat-trick!

ATB

[djderry] 12/10/2023 00:27

I note Quinn Emanuel Urquhart and Sullivan has filed complaints in the Swiss court in St.Gallen on behalf of a thousand investors with more than $6 billion of AT1 holdings in Credit Suisse.
We know in the past Burford has had a pretty solid relationship with that firm.

[375uv] 11/10/2023 23:29

New filing by Burford via Seb:

"Argentina affirmatively avers that it cannot and will not appropriate funds to secure payment of the judgment, which weighs strongly (if not dispositively) against waiving the bond requirement."

"In any event, Argentina’s arguments about the chaos that would ensue if the Court declines to grant a stay are both unfounded and exaggerated."

"While Plaintiffs would be delighted to engage constructively with the Republic, the reality is that in the absence of constructive engagement, a long road lies ahead. Argentina will resist asset discovery, insist on lengthy Hague Convention service in other jurisdictions, and throw up any other obstacle it can at every turn.:

"In conclusion, Argentina makes clear that it has no intention of paying the judgment voluntarily if its appeal is denied. Argentina seeks this equitable relief with unclean hands and this motion is simply the next chapter in Argentina’s decades- long playbook of “delay and resist” when it comes to judgments of U.S. courts."

[planit2] 11/10/2023 19:02

It's so the government back home can say the issue is not yet resolved, they are still hoping for a victory as they are in the right.

[djderry] 11/10/2023 17:54

I think the Republic's strategy of seeking to appeal Final Judgement, along with all the opinions and orders of the last few years including appealing the the motion to dismiss pursuant to the doctrine of Forum non conveniens in the Petersen case,without any reference to providing security,is a high-risk one.
It wishes to re-hear almost the entirety of the case,while expecting the Plaintiffs to continue to suffer losses,caused directly by the actions/omissions of the Defendants,with not even a reference to appealing for a stay on enforcement.
Flouting a decision,eight years in the making,with not even a sop to the winning party,seems to me to be an act of desperation,aimed more at playing to a certain base in Argentina, rather than any coherent legal strategy.

[stentorian] 11/10/2023 17:42

...that is an easy one to answer. The Hercules can land on makeshift runways...as Argentina can't afford the airport landing fees.