Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[papy02] 04/10/2023 14:00

BUR3 - a YTM of couple % premium to gilts seems fair. The YPF judgements can only be helpful to credit rating, though obv any practical effect is only when realised as cash.

But I’m conscious they had to give a much higher yield circa 9% to US bond investors to get their most recent bond away.

Edit: there is a possibility that BUR3 gets called early, like other BUR UK bonds, now they can no longer deduct interest on it for tax purposes. But previous bond calls were on fair terms afaiaa.

[aishah] 04/10/2023 11:09

Any views on BUR3 5% NTS 01/12/2026? Can buy around 93.5p.

[lomax99] 04/10/2023 10:59

Do we know if the 30 day rule is the default? When is it up? Can they commence action on that date if there has been no further update from Judge Preska? Appreciate they may be wise to hear her response.

[lomax99] 04/10/2023 10:56

Same old same old, will be adding sub 950.

[donald pond] 04/10/2023 10:33

It is extraordinary. Market cap less than half the court award.

[djderry] 04/10/2023 10:22

Happy to continue adding.

[extrader] 04/10/2023 09:36

Big article in today's FT

Argentina’s $16bn saga with a US court

Gives a fair summary, can't quite bring itself to endorse BUR's commercial rationale fully; also touches on the politics, both domestic and international, esp. US being seen as trying to wring money out of a poor country.

Since its acquisition by Nikkei, the FT has changed its worldview somewhat, IMO

GLA

[tradertrev] 03/10/2023 20:58

It's almost like Groundhog Day - you can buy BUR shares at the level they were the day before the YPF judgment was released. Incredible.

[time_traveller] 03/10/2023 18:53

Hardly. Been buying this dip. Couldn't be more confident.

[three black crows] 03/10/2023 18:38

Timetraveler, share price goes down a bit and you wet your pants.

[time_traveller] 03/10/2023 16:35

US Fund Gramercy has just taken a $552m stake in Pogust Goodhead Lit Fin, with the founders/partners very much on board, so it's highly plausible for Burford too IMO.

[donald pond] 03/10/2023 14:16

It does feel like this ends with an MBO at some point. Even after agreeing a reporting methodology with the SEC, it is a struggle to really get to grips with the accounts.
I know we should just focus on commitments, deployments and cash back, but they make it very difficult.

[time_traveller] 03/10/2023 14:05

It still baffles me why this is still listed. It doesn't matter what they do, where they list, how they account, the market on both sides of the pond still hates BUR.

[kaos3] 02/10/2023 09:22

State debts and lost state trials...

It is all about the power to enforce.
Enter geopolitics..
There is an international mess developing...

Russian assets frozen.. used for Ukraine rebuild?
Oil cargos seized ... not by one side only lately
Swift weaponized


EU countries did not.get their gold back home as demanded etc etc

Some netting at highest levels and lots of write offs in the wings imho

I would take a decent discount in our case and run...

[extrader] 02/10/2023 09:07

Seb's take on it all :

Not impressed by the debate :

.."Boring debate. It needs candidates to take off their gloves. This right of reply does not work. All very Swiss.

or the headlines...
.
."We are terrified by Insaurralde's expenses, but the more than USD 30,000 million that Kicillof cost us for YPF, holdouts and Cupon PBI will be rewarded with a re-election.

- And there are also photos and videos of Kicillof intentionally ignoring laws and contracts..."

And so it goes.

[extrader] 02/10/2023 08:52

In the 'you couldn't make it up' category :

Last night the 3 candidates + 2 chancers took part in a public debate. The outcome was mixed, it being considered an achievement that Milei didn't lose his temper.

Milei's in pole position because he came top in the first PASO election last month, in 16 of Argentina's 24 provinces, crucially not Buenos Aires province or city.

Part of yesterday's debate was overshadowed by 2 recent news stories, involving the Governor of BA - Kicillof of 'you must think we're stupid' fame - and members of his government

- his chief of staff found cavorting on an $8,000 a day yacht in Marbella with a young 'starlet';

and

- a deputy in the Provincial Chamber found at an ATM with 48 debit cards in the names of supposed fellow employees...and a sack of cash. He was let off.

See
hxxps://buenosairesherald.com/politics/axel-kicillofs-chief-of-staff-resigns-amid-luxury-trip-scandal

.." Kicillof said in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “Explanations will be delivered in the appropriate spaces.”

The Buenos Aires governor also announced he will be sending a bill to the provincial Legislature to eliminate the entire chief of staff office.

“This is not about doing ‘honesty marketing’ in the middle of the electoral campaign. To us, governing is a tool to make other people’s lives better,” Kicillof said. While clarifying that its functions will be taken on by other provincial ministries, he did not provide a reason for the move...."

and

.."An employee of the Buenos Aires Province Chamber of Deputies and Partido Justicialista member named Julio “ChocolateR21; Rigau was arrested after being caught retrieving money from an ATM in La Plata using debit cards that belonged to 48 fellow employees of the provincial Legislature. He had over one million pesos in cash with him at the moment of his detention. The judiciary ordered Rigau’s release last week and annulled the investigation on the grounds that the police officers who arrested him didn’t read him his rights until they arrived at the police station..."

Who needs a 'dirty tricks' department to discredit your opponents, when they so happily shoot themselves in the foot ?

ATB

[alter ego] 02/10/2023 08:29

short piece in the Guardian about the elections and the prospects if Milei is elected.

[rider75] 29/9/2023 19:16

As an RML and GRZ shareholder I follow that case closer, hope for a succesful auction.

[rider75] 29/9/2023 19:15

VZ and CITGOs case is quite different. Its working in the US, and its parent company was deemed to be the alter ego of VZ (unfortunately for them they used the companys assets to pay many costs related to Vemezuelan politicians.). So tt seemed to be easier to judge a start the auction process.

[extrader] 29/9/2023 14:37

Hat tip to Renegade for this

hxxps://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/caso-ypf-empieza-la-danza-de-los-embargos-millonarios-y-un-periodo-de-riesgo-para-la-petrolera-nid28092023/

Worth a read.

Talks about risk on appeal of BUR re-involving YPF (see the Venezuela/CITGO issue); the potential co-mingling of sovereign and commercial; Cristina Kirchner having to hire a private jet rather than risk the Presidential one, incidentally including the UAE (an offshore - cough!- banking centre) and the Seychelles (double cough!), the latter not on her official itinerary..

Lots of other detail for the aficionado...

Google is your friend !

[extrader] 29/9/2023 13:26

Seb's latest

BUR's reply to Argentina


neatly turns Argentina's argument around, AFAICS.

ATB

[tomtrudgian] 29/9/2023 10:53

Yes Burford’s move, DDR, to the US ‘Generally Agreed Accounting Policies’ (GAAP) was company led and not US required. IFRS figures should also have been prepared, but it matters little. GAAP is required for results in the year after the percentage of US shareholders becomes over 50%, which Bogart expected in June 23, he said.

Doubtless Burford quite reasonably thought that moving to GAAP would encourage their new US shareholders but this has not happened yet. This too matters little.

I fat fingered when I posted in July that the US percentage was 63% I meant 43% and Bogart said in Sept 23 that it was ‘still in the late 40’s%. So the 2024 results may still not need to produce quarterly GAAP figures, but doubtless will do.

GAAP accounting is not remotely ‘generally agreed’. Not in normal use outside the US in fact. Rather formulaic some might say, and the SEC has been talking about changing the US to an internationally recognised standard for a decade. The USA is surprisingly unchanging in some ways.

Finally ‘fair value’ is not a new concept. Any asset amortisation, whether depreciation or appreciation. Any write down or write up of receivables or debtors. Indeed any revaluation of anything, is fair valuing. Has always been so. Just far more important with very long term assets like YPF.

[extrader] 29/9/2023 04:02

Interesting.

I missed the extension to IFRS, where does your BUR quote from, pls?

And likewise the SEC comment letters, where can I find these?


TIA