Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[donald pond] 07/11/2023 08:26

Apparently Burfords involvement goes beyond Sysco and to more than Turkey. They own the Sysco case but there are also class actions and other meats.

[stentorian] 06/11/2023 12:05

The important question: Does This Tea Tastes of Turkey?

[1aconic] 06/11/2023 11:41

Not forgetting of course that turkey is just one element. As I understand it, there are similar cases for other meats too, including beef, pork, etc

[this tea tastes of chicken] 06/11/2023 09:59

Please note the correct spelling of Viledecans. Caution is the watchword.

[pymadams] 06/11/2023 09:44

Recent reports show turkey production of 4.5 billion per year. The claim covers at least 8 years from 2008-2016. The turkey producers are responsible for 70% of US production. The defendants production over that period would be about 30 billion.
The increase in prices would have to be noticeable (5%?) in order to be detectable.
The damages claimed against parties involved in collusion are trebled in US anti-trust law. Add in interest. Sysco would not have been the only one to pay higher prices, but they had food sales of 50 billion last year, and turkey would be some percentage of that.
Carina will estimate damages after discovery.

[donald pond] 06/11/2023 09:25

I don't think they would invest $140m thinking they would just double their return tbh. And they likely factored in (accurately as it turned out) that Sysco would probably be amenable to a lowball settlement with Cargill etc to preserve good relationships. If you tweak those parameters you can get to multi billions. If BUR thought it would triple its stake and that Sysco would likely settle for 50% of the claims true worth, that gets you to $2.5bn

[bradvert] 06/11/2023 09:08

Hmm, those numbers might get you to a billion, but Greenhaven clearly say multi billion..

[donald pond] 06/11/2023 08:23

Sysco seems likely to be the billion dollar case btw. Greenhaven have dig into the pleadings but my rule of thumb gets there too: we've invested $140m, must be expecting to at least double our money, and generally take around 30% of the claim. If we win that we get paid quickly too. Must be pressure on defendants to settle as well.

[djderry] 02/11/2023 20:29

Quarterly results Thursday, 9th November.

[stentorian] 01/11/2023 13:39

Dividend Allowance of just £1,000.00 this tax year. As transfers between husband and wife are not taxable it is possible for a couple to earn £2,000.00 this tax year, tax and NICs free (outside the shelter of an ISA or SIPP)

[extrader] 01/11/2023 13:32

Just in from Seb

🔴On Thursday, beneficiaries of the judgment in the YPF Expropriation Case will try to persuade Judge Preska to apply NY State Law and force Argentina to deposit a guarantee bond to avoid enforcement and attachment of sovereign assets.

His re-tweet of John Oliver report on Milei also has some entertainment value...

Oliver has 'gone American' but -despite that- some insight into Argentina's predicament come through, IMO.

[chester9] 01/11/2023 09:14

Xd on the 9th but as yield is pretty low at 6 cents not likely to change much.

[donald pond] 30/10/2023 08:36

Btw that fund manager is followed by some huge names in the investment world including William Green and Mohnish Pabrai.

[nigelpm] 29/10/2023 17:51

I think it's quite possible there will be cases that aren't publicised for obvious reasons.

Either way at £10 there's a lot of potential upside.

[extrader] 29/10/2023 16:56

Hi DDR

.."The Fund returned approximately 3% net in the third quarter, bringing YTD returns to 30% net..."

and

.." Given the multiple sources and triangulation involved, the presentation of our analysis is far more suited to PowerPoint than a quarterly letter. We will email the presentation to all limited partners next week.

I think you're getting a bit desperate now.

Just IMO.

[donald pond] 29/10/2023 16:52

I assume Sysco is a big one

[dead duck resources] 29/10/2023 16:34

"reason to believe they have line of sight to another multi-billion dollar award [but]
given all the multiple sources and triangulation involved [we cannot go into it here]"
An undertaking of great advantage but no one to know what it is?

[planit2] 29/10/2023 16:29

Thanks for the link bradvert, nice find.

Investors have been waiting a long time for the results to reflect the hidden cases coming to fruition. They really could do with a blowout qtr with no accounting opaqueness.

[three black crows] 29/10/2023 16:22

TOP HOLDINGSIn addition to PAR, our other top holdings include Burford Capital (BUR), KKR, APi Group (APG), and Cellebrite (CLBT):Burford Capital (BUR): Burford is a litigation funder that funds legal cases for a portion of the proceeds. The company's downside is limited to the cost of funding a lawsuit, and their upside is limited only by the size of the settlement or jury award. Burford's most successful investment to date has been YPF, where they funded a case against the government of Argentina, which privatized the YPF oil company without providing compensation to shareholders. During the third quarter, a judge in New York ruled in favor of Burford and other YPF claimants in every way possible. Burford's share of the verdict is $6.2B and accruing interest at over $300M per year. This is quite significant relative to Burford's $3B market capitalization, though the market is discounting the award because Argentina has a history of trying to avoid paying.In my opinion, if Burford is going to be successful, a few massive cases like YPF will drive a significant portion of the returns. In venture capital, this dynamic is referred to as Power Law. As the investor Peter Thiel said, the "biggest secret in venture capital is that the best investment in a successful fund equals or outperforms the entire rest of the fund combined." On paper, this has been the case with YPF where Burford has invested a total of $35M to date. Yes, on paper that is a 177 bagger. Burford already sold $7M of their investment for $236M, or more than a 30 bagger. It is likely that Burford will take a discount to collect their $6.2B YPF judgement but, given that their basis is only $28M whatever the discount, the returns should be eye-popping.Over the course of the summer, we spent significant energy looking at other cases that Burford has funded. The company is intentionally opaque and will not discuss individual cases for many reasons, including confidentiality. However, after sifting through thousands of pages of court documents (via the public access resource PACER), Burford presentations, SEC filings, and news media accounts, there is reason to believe that Burford has line of sight to another multibillion-dollar award where collectability is far less of an issue than with YPF. Given the multiple sources and triangulation involved, the presentation of our analysis is far more suited to PowerPoint than a quarterly letter. We will email the presentation to all limited partners next week, but for now, rest assured I believe Burford is worth far more than the $13 per share Mr. Market has ascribed to it

[bradvert] 29/10/2023 15:06

A tantalising and intriguing section on BUR in Greenhaven Capital's latest quarterly review...They have done some detective work trawling through extensive US court documents, and reckon Burford have "another multibillion-dollar award where collectability is far less of an issue than with YPF" https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/653e5ef84c601f13af619cee/1698586360805/Greenhaven+Road+-+2023+Q3+FINAL.pdf

[quantum leaper1] 29/10/2023 09:03

In my experience pleading hardship isn't likely to go down well with the judge. She's quite likely to say this is the real reason why Argentina misappropriated the money in the first place. Hard on the people of Argentina but we can't have countries who choose to ignore legal contracts or there would be worldwide anarchy.

[three black crows] 27/10/2023 11:56

More from Sebastian Maril, posted today on "X"On Thursday night, Argentina filed a brief requesting Judge Preska to eliminate the security deposit requirement to avoid embargoes in the YPF lawsuit.- In this writing, the Government warned that "... we cannot allow the plaintiffs to have access to the same limited source of funds that we use to cover our obligations to private creditors of public debt.- They were warned.

[malc999] 27/10/2023 11:51

I like this guys opinions which he shares on his Youtube channel. He's just uploaded a short clip on his take on Argentina and dollarization - basically if Arg does decide to proceed with dollarization then it will be a far from straightforward process:

hxxps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Sovz3NTB-Q

[extrader] 27/10/2023 09:56

And so it begins...

Seb's latest

🔴Argentina asks Judge Preska to stay enforcement of the judgment pending appeal without bond.
- Claims that plaintiffs have already produced 77 requests seeking documents concerning any of the Republic’s commercial transactions, with any person worldwide since 2020, documents about every account of every kind ever used since 1993 to hold or transfer YPF shares or share proceeds, and information about dealings with multilateral lending organizations....

[maddox] 26/10/2023 23:32

The shares are way under priced - ignoring YPF.