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BUR Burford Capital Limited

1,252.00
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 15:40:20
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Burford Capital Limited LSE:BUR London Ordinary Share GG00BMGYLN96 ORD NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 1,252.00 1,251.00 1,255.00 1,283.00 1,251.00 1,266.00 220,261 15:40:20
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Unit Inv Tr, Closed-end Mgmt 326.08M 30.51M 0.1393 90.60 2.76B
Burford Capital Limited is listed in the Unit Inv Tr, Closed-end Mgmt sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker BUR. The last closing price for Burford Capital was 1,252p. Over the last year, Burford Capital shares have traded in a share price range of 535.50p to 1,387.00p.

Burford Capital currently has 218,957,218 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Burford Capital is £2.76 billion. Burford Capital has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 90.60.

Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

Showing 25151 to 25174 of 25975 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
28/9/2023
08:04
Now how long before Judge Preska says no
chester9
28/9/2023
08:02
Fresh from SebARGENTINA ANNOUNCES THAT IT WILL REQUEST JUDGE PRESKA TO ALLOW THE REPUBLIC APPEAL THE YPF RULING WITHOUT POSTING A BOND.No surprise
chester9
27/9/2023
20:59
I'd like to agree with you - but it's more of a "no brainer" in his position than "a massive vote of confidence", I feel! ;)
kirkie001
27/9/2023
18:08
For someone with almost 10 million shares,that latest share purchase by Jonathan Molot is a massive vote of confidence.
djderry
27/9/2023
13:37
Selling a portion of YPF allowed BUR to gain cash to recycle into other cases - but it is difficult to see it as 'de-risking'. The sale of 10% put a value on the rest of the case US$770m that then sat on their balance sheet. Had the case gone Argentina's way and BUR would have had to write it off. I'm pretty sure that this binary risk deterred many investors.
maddox
26/9/2023
22:15
If memory serves me correct,there was a $100 million sale of 10% of the asset,for a billion dollar valuation,ie,realised cash proceeds all- in of $236 million in June 2019.( Less costs,of course ,as of June 2019).
As important as the 'de-risking' may have been,I think management were at pains to point out that the real value was it enabled Burford to put much more money to work,as they said in retrospect it was the bridge to the larger vintages of capital deployments,a bridge to the larger Burford,as it were.
If/When the outline of a deal regarding the YPF matter becomes clear and a regular predictable payment plan is forthcoming ( and I believe this could yet take several years to materialise)the impact on Burford will be tremendous.
And,although it seems to be all about YPF,it isn't .Had YPF been a 'loss' at summary and final judgement I would still be invested.The case for Burford is,in my opinion,a much larger one.There is a leading,growing,non-correlated business,scaling up,irrespective of the Petersen/YPF matter.All this case does,apart from the financial gain/ reputational enhancement,is to highlight this.

djderry
26/9/2023
21:31
Just another way of looking at it chaps.

Company comments at the time;
"Sold 25% interest for $106m in an asset in which Burford has invested ~$18m"
"Burford sold 10% of its interest for $40m, valuing Burford’s investment at $400m"
"In June 2017 Burford sold further 15% for $66m valuing Burford’s investment at $440m"

The narrative post-award is that it 'derisked' the investment (despite the low outlay) but the reasoning given then was to generate a return and to put a value on the asset.

dead duck resources
26/9/2023
20:55
Very interesting views from Mr.Marroc and Extrader,thank you for the insights.
djderry
26/9/2023
20:29
That is possibly the daftest thing I've read this week. They were derisking the investment. They've made is it a 37,000% return? It's hard to criticise any aspect of that.
donald pond
26/9/2023
20:27
.." Finally, Securitization of Argentina’s Cash Payments. If Argentina chooses to negotiate cash payments over a designated timeframe, Burford Capital has the capacity to facilitate the securitization of Argentina's anticipated future cash flows and offer these assets to the market. This option would enable Burford to receive the entire awarded amount in advance and shift the liquidity risk associated with Argentina to interested investors..."

I'm reminded of a situation that I was alerted to in the 80's/90's when Nigerian Govt. Par 6.25% Bonds were trading at under 40c on the $.

Apparently about 40% of the bonds were then in the hands of 'well-connected' Nigerians themselves, who were in a position to - ahem - prioritise any available cashflow towards payments falling due on this particular instrument. So the credit risk , whilst still there, wasn't as great as it might otherwise seem.

And so it proved to be : I held for several years a $ bond investment yielding nearly 16% income and eventually sold out at slightly over 60c,for a further 50% capital gain. Happy days!

Nearer to home, a similar situation arose - exceptionally- with the UK's Royal Bank of Scotland US$ Prefs in the post GFC meltdown : $25 face Prefs @ 6-7%, trading at a hefty discount, despite being (effectively) HMG risk....

Bottom line : I wouldn't be surprised if a BUR securitization of Argentina Cash Payments attracted a healthy core of 'informed ' overseas money from Argentinians themselves.

.."As Argentina has been renegotiating its US$65 billion debt with foreign creditors, it is also grappling with the fact that up to six times that amount [ie US$ 390Bn] is believed to be held by its citizens and companies offshore..."

hxxps://www.occrp.org/en/blog/12826-argentina-confronts-its-multi-billion-dollar-offshore-wealth-problem

It may stick in the craw that the 'exploiters' would thereby get yet another chance to exploit the long-suffering population, but that's a separate conversation.

ATB

extrader
26/9/2023
20:03
In 2017, $106m came back in cash from selling 14.5% of potential Peterson proceeds
In 2019, $130m came back in cash from selling 8.0% of potential Peterson proceeds

Allowing a 30% haircut ($10bn) for a simpler figure and now that we know the award
that move to sell 8% could be seen as taking out at a 4.5yr loan @50% interest rate
while the 14.5% ($1.45bn proceeds sold for $106m) could be seen as a 6.5yr loan @50%

dead duck resources
26/9/2023
20:00
Some thoughts from Mr. Marroc arising from the enforcement/collection scenarios discussed in Artem Fokin's webcast

1) It is highly unlikely that the IMF will directly lend Argentina additional funds to pay beneficiaries of foreign judgments. The Fund is committed to fostering sustainable growth and prosperity for all its member countries, but I do not believe that it is the Fund's responsibility to provide financial assistance to compensate for losses arising from lawsuits involving one of its members. However, I do believe that the IMF should assume a significant role in addressing Argentina's litigation cases. This role should encompass providing legal and strategic support, perhaps including the possibility of acting as an intermediary between the sovereign member nation and all beneficiaries of foreign judgments. On its August 2023 Staff Report, the IMF made reference to the country’s outstanding legal proceedings (including the YPF case) explaining that “…[our] shock [analysis] is tailored for Argentina’s circumstances by simulating a one-off debt materialization of 6 percent of GDP, equivalent to the total stock of provincial debt or the combined potential compensation payments from ongoing litigation cases”. That’s about $25 billion in legal exposure, assuming expected FY2023 GDP of $430 billion. The IMF will someway involved in the resolution.

2) Cash Payments in Installments. I am confident that this alternative is highly feasible for the Republic. A likely proposal entails a $10 to $12 billion agreement to be paid over a period of 7 to 10 years through semiannual installments that are adjusted to reflect Argentina's liquidity risk. It's important to note that this agreement will be governed by New York law to ensure enforceability in case Argentina fails to meet its contractual obligations in the future. I firmly believe that Argentina has the capacity to make semiannual payments of $500 to $700 million to the YPF ruling beneficiaries.

3) Finally, Securitization of Argentina’s Cash Payments. If Argentina chooses to negotiate cash payments over a designated timeframe, Burford Capital has the capacity to facilitate the securitization of Argentina's anticipated future cash flows and offer these assets to the market. This option would enable Burford to receive the entire awarded amount in advance and shift the liquidity risk associated with Argentina to interested investors.

Interesting...

extrader
26/9/2023
15:35
Hi hpcg,thank you for your points.
I think about it differently.In my view covid did not make cases less valuable.It extended their duration and,in many cases I understand from management comments,there would be some increase built into the return based on the time element.
For me as an investor,it makes no difference how long it takes.I'm in for the long term.( Famous last words!).
Also,on a separate matter,the discount rate is immaterial to me.It's what they have deployed and what comes back in cash that matters.

djderry
26/9/2023
11:29
It's fun when youre a kid; the novelty soon wears of
williamcooper104
26/9/2023
11:20
djderry - IFS forced fair value accounting onto the industry. I can see why, for one thing it should reduce wild step changes in NAV. Personally I have tried to use cash accounting because the lag from cash invested to cash recovered is a vital part of the valuation. It doesn't matter so much for the YPF case where the award increments for the time value of money, there is just a missing opportunity cost, but the court delays because of covid did make the portfolios less valuable.
hpcg
26/9/2023
08:48
20 hours of travel each way for 24 hours at the mine plus a night at the company house? Anyone who thinks business travel is fun has never had a serious job.
donald pond
26/9/2023
07:58
you still gallavanting around on PXC shareholders expense ?
rackersthedon
26/9/2023
07:48
Chart starting to look like it might begin to bowl up
donald pond
25/9/2023
22:40
I hold Artem Fokin in high regard.His original analysis, pre MW,is proving prescient.Burford is becoming the Blackstone of litigation finance,head and shoulders above all the competition.
For example,they've committed $325 million to one company.Lit,in comparison,spent over a year trying to get that much into their fund management business.( Before anyone starts,I'm a shareholder there,too.But,mostly because they follow the Burford playbook.They spent years trumpeting that their accounts were so much clearer and transparent than some of their competitors because they held their investments at cost and then,without a whimper from either management or shareholders,they went and followed Burford down the fair valuing route.You could not make it up.)
Artem also published a report rebutting MW point by point,'A Black Cat That Does Not Exist'.If memory serves me correct,it contained 75 points,shredding MW to pieces,correcting its mistakes and pointing out factual inaccuracies.
His level of analysis is second to none.

djderry
25/9/2023
15:31
AIUI, litigation began in 2015 and was settled (largely in CNE's favour) in 2021...

And that settlement followed commercial arbitration, not a US Court judgment.

?

extrader
25/9/2023
15:18
That Cairn dispute has been going on even longer than Argentina!
time_traveller
25/9/2023
14:57
Hat tip to JammyC

Artem Fokin discusses Burford winning the YPF case + fundamental thesis post-trial $BURToday 13:48


This is an example Artem quoted (Burford-financed) :


Cairn, Indian govt, $ 1.7Bn judgment, Paris properties...

Analysts say New Delhi’s unwillingness to honour the international award follows a pattern of the Modi government’s refusal to acknowledge errors in governance.

with this outcome



India Update

Cairn is pleased to announce that it has entered into undertakings with the Government of India in order to participate in the scheme introduced by recent Indian legislation, the Taxation Laws (Amendment) Bill 2021 (the "Taxation Amendment Act"), allowing the refund of taxes previously collected from Cairn in India.

Subject to certain conditions, the Taxation Amendment Act nullifies the tax assessment originally levied against Cairn in January 2016 and orders the refund of INR 79bn (approximately US$1.06bn*) which was collected from Cairn in respect of that assessment...."

Let's see if history rhymes...

extrader
25/9/2023
10:33
There was certainly a lot of "double-entry" going on between married directors :-)
stentorian
25/9/2023
08:40
I hope this is wholly irrelevant, Extrader: I just wonder if the answer may be that Burford have too many very experienced lawyers, and too few qualified accountants and bankers.

We have had three Chief Financial Officers (CFO) in less than six years. Neither was a qualified US Certified Public Accountant (CPO), nor a qualified UK Chartered Accountant, nor any other type of accountant.

None of the Burford executive directors are qualified accountants either.

tomtrudgian
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