Base Resources Share Discussion Threads

[dangersimpson2] 13/1/2022 12:12

Kenmare production report today presented a further strong outlook for HMS:

The robust market for ilmenite continued through Q4 2021, with demand for Kenmare’s ilmenite exceeding the Company’s ability to supply. Consequently, average received prices increased by 13% compared to the previous quarter. This pricing momentum has continued into 2022, driven by demand for Kenmare products and low ilmenite inventories in the supply chain.

The zircon market stabilised in Q1 2021 following several quarters of weaker demand. Market conditions improved in Q2, before demand accelerated in H2 2021 as major economies continued the recovery from COVID-19 restrictions being lifted. Coupled with significant supply disruption, this led to quarter-on-quarter price increases in Q2, Q3 and Q4. This positive momentum has continued into 2022, with further price increases expected in Q1.



Kenmare don't give pricing by Quarter like Base do so we cannot do a precise comparison. The Q1 revenue per tonne HMS for Base (which is Q3 for Kenmare) was $668/t but we can't simply add 13% to that since sales in Q1 had a higher proportion of Zircon due to bulk shipping timing for Ilmenite.

Perhaps a reasonable assumption would be to add 15% to 21Q4 revenue per tonne HMS of $497. This would be about $570/t rising to perhaps $600/t for H2.

This works out to be about $145m FCF for FY22 from Kwale, pre-central costs and any dividend withholding tax. (Assuming the catch up the extra shipment from stocks by the end of the year.)

The question remains how much of this they will pay out as a dividend. If there is no progress on Toliara and they choose to pay out all the free cash flow then they could pay out something like 9-10p/share after central costs and withholding taxes are paid.

Realistically, they are going to hold back a chunk of this for further developments to extend mine life in Kenya plus, hopefully, Toliara development. With current pricing, they should be able to fund the equity portion from internal cash flow. They may still choose to JV at the asset level due to the ability to combine it with long-term offtake agreements, but the continued strength of HMS provides them with a lot of good options.

[janekane] 13/1/2022 07:56

Big seller on the oz market yesterday 13,098,313 at 31.2 cents this looks like one institution moving to another fund or another financial institution
We should get news conformation

[plasybryn] 09/1/2022 10:32

Thanks Jane. That is exciting. Got it all crossed.

[janekane] 09/1/2022 09:12

Morning plasy my friend in ozy says speculation is a deal in Madagascar is getting nearer
This has quite a following in oz with lots of speculation regarding Madagascar
As I stated several times ,let’s hope these rumours are good
I hope and believe they are

[plasybryn] 08/1/2022 19:41

What talk Jane pray?

[janekane] 08/1/2022 18:20

I think nex week will be good news week the talk in oz is very optimistic

[janekane] 08/1/2022 16:57

You’ll sell on good news no problems

[mjneish] 07/1/2022 21:23

I managed to snap up a few right after the close. So selling at some point in the future may be a problem ...

[janekane] 07/1/2022 16:47

That’s Aim for you “very illiquid “

“

[mjneish] 07/1/2022 14:21

I put two orders for 2,000 shares early this morning, and they are still open.

[janekane] 07/1/2022 09:11

You should be able to buy today plenty of sellers all getting a price higher than the bid

[mjneish] 06/1/2022 20:30

IBKR. I placed an order for 12,000, then tried 6,000 and 3,000, then 3,000 only. None of it worked. It's traded on SETSqx so goes to auction I believe. I'll try 2,000 tomorrow as you've suggested. Thank you.

[janekane] 06/1/2022 19:47

I don’t think there is a problem buying or selling who’s your broker most online brokers will take your order to buy and keep it open for as long as it takes to fill any trade under 20000 should be filled immediately
The brokers are buying over the bid price so maybe a big order is being filled

[janekane] 05/1/2022 17:45

Yes if you look at the amount of money our company puts into the local community then you will see it’s not just jobs but “ the Cadbury “and “Henry Ford “ way of building a society around the work place “housing ,Infrastructure, schools ,healthcare ,leisure facilities
Employment Apprenticeships , look at our work in Africa
Political problems in Madagascar with licensing that may have been not quite consistent with the rules at that time with the parliament issuing the licences and the fact that about 20 people complained about land going to be compulsory purchased has opened the fiscal percentages regarding royalties paid to the government
I personally think these %payment have for years been underpaid and should be increased
What we are doing is trying to assert this matter in a commercially acceptable way for both of us
Jane

[plasybryn] 05/1/2022 15:50

I love their community focus and the coverage they provide on Twitter. It makes you feel good to be invested helping in a small way all their wonderful community projects. They do seem a step apart from many and take ESG very seriously.

[plasybryn] 05/1/2022 15:48

Thanks. If it gets approval in Madagascar it certainly will be a great Co. But a bit binary imo. I am expecting to get a clearer handle on the chances of developing Madagascar in the first 6 months of 2022 though. Fingers crossed

[janekane] 05/1/2022 13:04

We have enough resources to keep going towards to the end of 2024 and plenty of exploration possibilities to become assets so Ime quite happy for more dividend payments next due in 10 weeks time of AUD 4 CENTS and a building of AUD reserves
This is a great company with an enormous future

[plasybryn] 05/1/2022 10:50

Thank janekane. I tend to agree. I see the article was last September! I guess the main issue here must be will Kenya provide income long enough to support the Co. until Toliara, Madagascar starts production? Has the Co. spoken about that? They keep paying out large dividends. Wouldn't it be prudent to build a cash war chest to tied them over any production gap or am I missing something?

[plasybryn] 03/1/2022 09:03

Could you give us a link to the article by any chance. Fingers crossed this is more than speculation. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.

[plasybryn] 03/1/2022 09:01

Oh my goodness. Let's hope and pray there is some element of truth in this speculation. My year would be made in one stunning day.

[janekane] 03/1/2022 08:21

The Australian share price yesterday was 33.5 cents = to 18p in the UK also a mining news magazine talks about fiscal talks being agreed at the end of this month
SPECULATION OR GOOD REPORTING
WHO KNOWS TILL WE GET THE RNS

[plasybryn] 21/12/2021 17:35

Thanks. Great reply. Much appreciated.

[dangersimpson2] 21/12/2021 17:23

If Toliara gets the go-ahead then they probably will re-invest the cash into that and not pay a dividend. If not, we can expect one paid in March 2022. By then they probably will have generated around $80m of net cash Q1-Q3 which would be about 5p per share. But they are unlikely to pay this all out. Another AUD3-4c would easily be affordable though as an interim dividend.

[plasybryn] 21/12/2021 16:36

Could anyone tell me where are re: the next dividend?