Base Resources Share Discussion Threads

[soleman1] 16/9/2021 06:25

26.6% dividend at this price, might just have to top up...again somethings gotta give.

[janekane] 10/9/2021 10:03

Balderdash n piffle

[tomps2] 10/9/2021 09:32

Mark Simpson ‘slams’ Base Resources (BSE) in the latest PIWORLD/Stockopedia StockSlam at 35m34s

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast here:

[janekane] 10/9/2021 08:25

Looking good

[soleman1] 10/9/2021 06:33

Chaps this is my first BSE dividend, I tried to register with compushare but didn't have the srn number. I can't find it on hsbc sharetrading and when I contacted them they also did not know it. The latest RN states those paid by cheque will receive a mandate form, hopefully that communication will include the srn number but in the meantime will I be sent a cheque without taking any further Action?

[soleman1] 10/9/2021 06:26

Surprise surprise down 4c in oz, should equate to -2.2p for us today.

[janekane] 08/9/2021 08:00

Base iron closing price this morning Australia
Buy 129528
Sells 1047691
? 472574
Forecast for Fridays opening price BID 14.75p OFFER 16p

[soleman1] 07/9/2021 21:17

I called it, two large sells yesterday late reported today.

[soleman1] 07/9/2021 10:57

Solid finish on ASX up 3% 32.5, surprising seeing as we dropped it 4% yesterday. Definitely potential to crack 18p today, strong buying so far.

[janekane] 07/9/2021 07:25

Australia bid offer up 1.6% bid 325 offer 31

[janekane] 07/9/2021 07:25

Should rise again today

[marktime1231] 06/9/2021 17:17

ProactiveInvestors reporting a broker note from Peel Hunt, who agree the value of BSE rests on extending operations in Kenya and Tangyanika or doing a deal in Madagsacar



They say BSE is worth 20p as things stand, but don't suggest how much it would be worth if they agree fiscal terms with Madagascar in the next year.

The share price seems to have topped at 18p ahead of ex-div on Friday.

[janekane] 06/9/2021 16:48

Trades in Australian yesterday’s trades 5/09/21—6/09/21 11 hours in front of us
buys 181893
Sells 941968
668092 in the not known column

[soleman1] 06/9/2021 10:08

Odd price movement today, if you read the trades there are far more buys than sells. Looks like there has been a large sell yet to appear on the board. Tempting to top up again just before pay day.

[plasybryn] 03/9/2021 23:08

Base Resources Ltd - mineral sands developer with assets in Kenya and Madagascar - Study of the Bumamani and Kwale North Dune deposits in Kenya finds that it is economically feasible to mine smaller, higher-grade subsets concurrently with the Kwale South Dune deposit, extending the mine life of the Kwale mineral sands operations by 7.5 months to July 2024. That will provide time for Base to develop further opportunities in Kenya. The cost of acquiring land, services and infrastructure that will be required is estimated at USD13.6 million.

[pendragon2] 03/9/2021 17:12

Alba’s wholly-owned Thule Black Sands (TBS) Project is a heavy mineral sands project located on the Steensby Land peninsular in north-west Greenland.
The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, GEUS, has estimated that 10 billion tonnes of ilmenite exist in the original rock within the entire Thule region, with a further 7 billion tonnes of ilmenite present in the form of placer ilmenite.
An extensive surface drilling campaign by Alba has led to the declaration of a maiden Mineral Resource for Thule Black Sands.

Next door to the bluejay licence.

[soleman1] 03/9/2021 13:13

Greenland ? Have to replace the water pumps with snowball cannons

[marktime1231] 03/9/2021 11:56

The Bumamani news from BSE this morning is both positive and brings focus on LoM ... they reckon they can economically squeeze another 7.5 months out of Kwale, which takes its life to July 2024. So, revising my pessimistic view of the pivot, we might get 65% of our money back at this rate of distribution if in the worst case Toliara comes to nought. More, if they can reach agreement with Kenya govt over the VAT rebate.

Good suggestions about bringing another opportunity forward, having a plan B, but it would need to be something which can be commissioned in a couple of years. Greenland though, brrrr!

[soleman1] 03/9/2021 08:17

Stock is really tight today after high buying volume yesterday, it won't take much to move this higher now.

[pendragon2] 03/9/2021 08:02

Perhaps Base should acquire the Alba ilmenite resource in Greenland.

[dangersimpson2] 01/9/2021 23:00

Yep, lots of assumptions in there but my assessment is that the capital market cycle is on our side. New HMS capacity is required but the capex has not been put in globally for the last 5 years or so and it takes 5 years of planning & construction to develop greenfield sites. South Africa has production issues. Vietnam & India are not coming back on stream for political reasons. And the only world-class resource that is advanced in its planning is Toliara and that has been delayed.

There is another world-class resource that is a few years behind Toliara in planning which is owned by listed Bluejay (JAY) in Greenland but it is a) poorly located for Chinese customers b) is planned to produce at half the rate of Toliara Phase 1 and c) only has a PFS not a DFS so is a couple of years behind Toliara even with the lack of activity on the ground in Madagascar over the last 18 months. Bluejay has a $165m market cap as a non-producer. It has a few other explo state projects but as a read through you could easily argue that Toliara should be worth twice as much as Bluejay on its own.

Kenmare have increased production by adding an additional Wet Concentrator Plant last year but this has easily been accommodated by the market. They are obviously in production, but producing at a level that will be similar to the final rate at Toliara with the same very long LoM. Toliara is cheaper due to the much higher grades. Kenmare has a $700m+EV and still looks reasonable value at that valuation.

In the near term, ilmenite might see a limit to price rises as informal Chinese supply becomes economic but this is generally lower quality. So this may prevent price spikes but it is unlikely to dampen prices below the current level, merely limit the rises.

So all indications that current HMS prices are largely sustainable or on an upward trajectory, barring any severe global economic demand shocks.

In terms of Base, I think they will look to extend Kwale with whatever they can. The level of jobs, training, community services etc that relies on Base Titanium operating at scale means that it would be very bad news for Kwale county for Base to simply shut up operations at the end of 2024. I feared that they would mine the North Dune whatever the economics for this reason, but am pleasantly surprised that they have stuck to their guns with the PFS being uneconomic for everywhere apart from Bumamani.

So I think they will go all out to find additional high-grade & economic resources to keep the plants running in Kwale. I am disappointed with the bureaucracy that seems to accompany these efforts in Kenya given how dependent the region is on Base. I think part of this may be wrapped up in the VAT/Royalties agreement that is being negotiated. This is due to be settled imminently, so I would hope that these license and access issues get resolved rapidly following this but who knows on the ground.

What is certain is that it is in everyone's interest to find new, accessible high-grade HMS ore reserves in Kenya in the next few years. This doesn't mean the geology will be compliant, of course, but all the indications are that they are drilling in the right places to find anything if it is there.

[marktime1231] 01/9/2021 19:59

If those assumptions on extractable mineral, production volumes, costs and prices, free cash flow and distributions are right, and I hope you are, you make a good case. My own prayer is that they agree a deal with Madagascar quickly and re-focus operations there, rather than try to bridge the gap by extending Kwale on marginal economics. Then we can worry less about life of mine.

BSE is anything but boring!

[dangersimpson2] 01/9/2021 17:08

You may be right. As investors, we like to think of ourselves as independent rational thinkers. However, too often we let the market reaction speak louder than our own analysis.

We look at a company on a P/E of 40 and think "that must be a quality company if it is on that rating" or a company on a P/E of 8 and think "there must be something wrong with it". All the evidence points to both earnings growth and ROIC being highly mean-reverting. So sooner or later both the "quality company" and the "dog" end up on the same rating. Except the quality company has halved and the "dog" has doubled.

The moral of the story is that if you believe the market to be inefficient then you have to form your own opinion and ignore the market's short-term opinion, which is often wrong. And if you don't believe that there are market inefficiencies...buy a tracker.

[brownmruk] 01/9/2021 16:18

The other simplistic issue is that some investors are put off by high yields just because they are anomalous.

[dangersimpson2] 01/9/2021 15:45

It's just boring, that's why it is the price that it is. Kwale looks unexciting due to the low LoM and Toliara is too far away for the myopia of most invetsors. Also, HMS is a sector many mining investors don't follow or understand so it gets overlooked.

It is fairly easy to model the cash flow. Mid case of FY22 production guidance is 430.5kt. They got $497/t in 21Q4 and we know the markets are tight going into FY22 so let's say $520/t for FY22 as a whole.

Operating costs, let's say $150/t vs $148/t for 21Q4. Royalties are 7%, corporate, community & selling costs we can assume similar levels to FY21. Financing will be lower with the RCF repaid. Tax should be around 15% with the 10yr agreement still in place. Capex for Kwale is $15.8m as given on yesterday's conference call.

So we end up with $114m FCF from Kwale, which reduces to c.$100m once you pay unallocated corporate costs and some tax on repatriation of funds out of Kenya.

FY23 we can assume is similar if not higher due to market tightness.

FY24 will be lower due to mining out the South Dune and move to Bumamani. so Let's say $50m FCF for then.

So $250m+ FCF in 3 years vs $280m market cap.

Of course, you have to NPV that cash and if the HMS market tanks then this won't be achieved but all the current signs point to upside risk to the pricing at the moment, not the downside.

On top of this, you have Toliara which they paid $100m for and have invested c$50m to get to DFS. With a strong HMS pricing environment, I reckon they could sell this for $250m today if they wanted to and has an NPV of $500m+. If it cant be developed then it is, of course, worthless. However, you have to take a stochastic approach on this - I reckon there is at least an 80% chance that this gets the go-ahead in the next year. So the risked NPV is c$400m for Toliara.

So to reiterate, the issue isn't that the value isn't there, it is that investors aren't willing to do even the basic work above to understand or view it as too risky to invest in at any price. Perhaps the only thing that will change their mind is continuous cash dividends. But if the perception changes, perhaps due to Toliara approval or simply that new production from Toliara or wider resources in the Kwale area finally arrives, then the re-rating to match the cash flow could be rapid and material.