Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[dr biotech] 14/12/2020 08:01

Vietnam sold then. Would always like to see a value given though.

Bloomberg said manulife were leading the bidding 6 months ago, wheels turn slowly.

[cjac39] 13/12/2020 23:55

Wba it’s no more simple than when you have 80-100bln of annuities and you write 5-10 pa I’ve got to think the PRA will always be super interested. That’s about 7% roughly speaking of pensions in U.K. (non dB) so surely systemic by definition but not something I would fall out about as not that commercial either. From experience they get very antsy about annuities rather than life or general

[wba1] 13/12/2020 22:23

cjac39; I appreciate your view on this. I think we can both agree that a trade sale would be the best outcome. I am now confident that EU negotiations are in good hands - at least on the EU side - as I have found out today that Ursula von der Leyen is an LSE alumni from the same year as me! I must be a great disappointment to the place having never run a dodgy bank (like 2 of my LSE cricket teammates) or risen to great heights in criminal networks....sorry, governments. 😊

[wish i wasnt in rbs] 13/12/2020 22:13

Tories will get hammered and Johnson's reputation will be in tatters if there is no deal.

[whatsup32] 13/12/2020 21:06

[...]

U.K. and Eu far apart but Brexit deal hopes rise. FT

Suggesting ground was shifting and progress was made. Also suggest no deadline set for conclusion of talks other then January 1st and that talks will continue through Christmas.

I suspect some agreement was made , keep fingers crossed

[eurofox] 13/12/2020 20:22

I preferred prepidation

[smurfy2001] 13/12/2020 20:15

Shares are already cheap in the UK sure there will be a drop (for no deal) but there's much priced in already.

[cjac39] 13/12/2020 20:12

Trepidation

[cjac39] 13/12/2020 20:12

It’s with some prepidation that I disagree with you wba but disagree I do. The volume of retail annuities in aviva for me would qualify it definitively as systemic in the eyes of the regulator.

It’s also not that important per se aside from ruling out a private equity bid and meaning it would only ever be a trade sale to an approved controller

[spud] 13/12/2020 19:58

Getting paid to wait for the (almost) inevitable takeover at circa £6? I'd say that's a cracking buy & hold!!spud

[whatsup32] 13/12/2020 19:53

Given we now expect bid/offer for French interest at latest mid Jan (30 days) and that indications are offer will be at the higher end of market expectations and that other interested parties are lurking. Aviva’s down side may be modest.

Aviva in these uncertain times may just be a good hold or there I say a good buy

[whatsup32] 13/12/2020 18:25

Well I’ll stick my neck out and suggest we get a 2% rise in Av. Monday morning

[wba1] 13/12/2020 17:28

Agree about Glaxo.

[whatsup32] 13/12/2020 17:01

Actually yes agree in the case of Aviva with foreign assets makes it more attractive. Can I suggest companies with foreign income eg ‘ Glaxo’ would also be attractive to invest in.

But I wouldn’t see companies with only U.K. assets becoming more of a target as they will see a drop in U.K. businesses and as you stated balance of drop in sterling and drop in domestic market would come into play.

[wba1] 13/12/2020 16:58

Not doom at all. For us, and investors generally, volatility makes opportunities. I see Aviva being taken out as a very positive outcome. It will, of course, be very bad news for all those who will lose their jobs in 2021 in an environment where the benefits net will inevitably shrink (after the current borrowing splurge).

[eurofox] 13/12/2020 16:53

Doom, doom, its all doom I tell ya!

Don't worry Fraser, just don't panic, don't panic captain Mainwaring.


... what a load of worriers, sit back and enjoy the ride

[wba1] 13/12/2020 16:49

In the case of Aviva you would be buying a large chunk of foreign assets priced in sterling, and a market leading brand and strong domestic market position, which would make it more attractive than weaker brands and smaller competitors. I agree that pure UK companies with weaker brands and market positions may be less attractive, but I was focusing on Aviva. For other assets it depends on where you see the balance between the sterling discount on the price and the domestic market risk. I have no doubt that the Aviva balance favours a bidder.

[whatsup32] 13/12/2020 16:41

Agree no agreement would see a drop in sterling but why would it automatically mean British assets be tempting.
I’d suggest properties , industries even insurers will too suffer consequences of drop in trade/economy so their attraction for takeover will also have dropped.

[wba1] 13/12/2020 16:00

Ok, let's stick to the impact on Aviva (we should not ignore Brexit as it is a massive variable for any major UK company). The impacts fall broadly into two categories;

* the effect on currency. No deal screws sterling and makes all UK assets a more attractive targets for predators. Already undervalued targets such as Aviva become even more attractive. And here I have to disagree with cjac; I do not see Aviva as a systemic asset and do not see any basis for resisting a takeover on political or regulatory grounds (although I agree that conditions could be imposed).

* no deal screws the economy (at least in the medium term). Trade deals with minor markets will not compensate for lost EU trade and it will take time to rebalance. Given this and the cost of Covid I can only see big tax increases in 2022 at the latest - and that will include those affecting Aviva. I expect corporation tax to rise and that IPT will be harmonised at 20%. No doubt other taxes with indirect impacts on Aviva (including personal taxes which reduce disposable income) will also increase, as will unemployment (which also reduces disposable income).

Both of these big factors (and there are other lesser ones) make me keen on a full disposal of Aviva - either after sale of subsidiaries followed by the core, or by a takeover of the lot before the subsidiaries are sold. The home market is likely to be tough for years and overseas buyers can afford to pay a substantial premium to the current share price.

Of course, a deal may be made - but I cannot see why the EU would compromise given the message that would send to other nationalists, and the takeover of the Conservative Party by UKIP gives Johnson no room to wriggle.

[1robbob] 13/12/2020 14:37

Aviva chat please
Plenty of other BBs for personal political opinion

[karv1] 13/12/2020 13:16

Maybe there will be some kind of spike on Monday with it falling back later in the week. There must be a point of no return simply getting a deal voted through loads of parliaments and regional parliaments before 31st will take time and it will only take 1 to say no to crash it. could something like this happen?
To delay it. I did hear something about bypassing the national votes and just using the EU parliament vote instead not sure what happened to that idea. Then you still have the french and others that can veto.

[gary1966] 13/12/2020 13:06

Extending the negotiations makes absolutely no sense. Whether we leave with or without a deal has become secondary now to the continual uncertainty that there has been over the last few years. People, businesses and governments have been unable to make any plans because of the need to be seen to exhaust every avenue. When are people going to smell the coffee and wake up. We are leaving the EU because we didn't like the way it was run and so we are never going to reach agreement.