Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[eurofox] 08/12/2020 16:11

plenty of cash lined up for any bargains!

[cyberian] 08/12/2020 16:07

No deal and the pound will fall and the FTSE will rise as stated by many as many of the FTSE 100 have large overseas earnings...but who knows. I did read a few months back that JP Morgan had already moved huge sums out of the UK, and that others have as well...I think they were talking about over a £trillion!!! Germany and the US were the main financial centers to benefit. Also must beware of the Biden factor and his leaning towards Europe and not so much the UK. Interesting few days ahead.

[1robbob] 08/12/2020 15:42

I have every confidence that a Brexit Agreement of some sort will be cobbled together in the next 72 hours.
Macron will be put in his place by the rest of the EU, especially Ms Merkel

Never in doubt !!!!!!

[1robbob] 08/12/2020 15:42

I have every confidence that a Brexit Agreement of some sort will be cobbled together in the next 72 hours.
Macron will be put in his place by the rest of the EU, especially Ms Merkel

Never in doubt !!!!!!

[123trev] 08/12/2020 14:43

It’s anybody’s guess how all this plays out cyberian short term could see major problems long term it could be the best thing we ever did we are the first of many members to take the initiative I feel. The ideal of the union didn’t live up to its promise in the end and the red tape is causing major headaches and discord and that’s only one issue here. In regards financial services the union is not equipped or recognised like London is around the world and it would take them years to match us according to many financial sources how true that is remains to be seen. It’s the uncertainty now that made me sell on Friday because this could get ugly for markets again.

[cyberian] 08/12/2020 14:42

Sorry no offence "Huncher" you maybe right but a deal needs to be struck asap. My opinions are closer to those expressed by Rachel Sylvester in today's Times and concern over the collective judgement of Boris's cabinet....I think that quite a few are real dingbats, and that Boris is not the greatest leader. I hope that he pulls a good deal out of the hat...the omens appear poor when reading his comments this morning...maybe tactical. All this "Sovereign" stuff leaves me cold in the global scene and inter-action needed....we are small in global terms, and our influence is diminishing or on the wane, but I admit with a great history/people. The obituary on Doug Scott (Times paper) is an example of a truly inspirational man, a mountaineer, adventurer, teacher/writer, and above all a generous charity leader....worth a read....just a year older than me...so sad.

[huncher] 08/12/2020 13:21

The EU will not negotiate around Financial Services at least realistically - we have been attempting to negotiate a level playing field here for 20+years. They even refused (we allowed)to put it on the table as part of the BREXIT negotiations. It is a major weakness of theirs which they now seem to think is an opportunity - at worst there will be short term ructions that actually impact their businesses quite significantly. Strategically and infrastructure wise we still hold the Aces.

[cyberian] 08/12/2020 13:00

123Trev...Just been listening to a fund manager/broker presentation which was outstanding with coverage on E.Commerce, AI, etc....anyway, the last person to speak addressed interest rates along with some other issues and then Brexit, and feels that a soft Brexit WILL happen as key for both the EU and the UK. On balance Johnson is not that stupid as combined with the pandemic and a hard Brexit NO DEAL, we are then in for a very rough time for quite a while in the UK. Huge cultural changes are inevitable after Covid-19 and we will have to live with other strains to come but will be better positioned to deal with them. A soft Brexit will assist some mutually acceptable resolution on financial matters which are key for the CITY....investment flows into the UK will drop on a NO DEAL, and funds will leave the UK. So, maybe Boris needs to get a grip and strike a deal which in reality the EU would also benefit from. I am hopeful.

[123trev] 08/12/2020 12:34

Tin hats on looks very much like a no deal Brexit given the talk from both sides at the minute.

[moontheloon] 08/12/2020 12:31

Why doesn't the guy with the golden ticket by aviva France, pas de probleme ?

[123trev] 08/12/2020 12:11

Obviously I understand your point DBADVN about different courts but this is coming to a head one way or another now I feel.

[dbadvn] 08/12/2020 12:03

123Trev.

That’s what would happen in the UK....

[123trev] 08/12/2020 11:53

I’m not sure what would go on there or the law related to separate funds within AV French unit but there must come a point given this type of instrument that spiralling losses cause a need to seek a deal with those remaining holders or fold it. In terms of credibility the absurd nature of the instrument is clear and never meant to act the way it does now. I’m surprised the courts given the advance in technology didn’t take this view and force mediation to settle the matter.

[dbadvn] 08/12/2020 11:46

I think that Amanda will be smart enough to realise that she needs to make a clean break from the Golden Ticket fiasco - probably one of the major reasons she has chosen to sell the French operation ASAP.

Unfortunately I know from many years experience of working in France that this is the perfect situation where the Government, the Unions and the Legislature will quite happily bend or just break every rule in the book to take as much as they can for nothing.

I would there fore expect that the final deal will be nowhere near as good as the rational expectations projected on the board .

Nevertheless I believe it is the right move.

[mo123] 08/12/2020 10:40

So barring a sale, AV. will have to continue pumping millions into this fund.
The AMF would initiate an investigation if there was the slightest hint the fund was allowed to fail.

[wba1] 08/12/2020 10:12

Thanks cjac. That is reassuring.

[karv1] 08/12/2020 09:37

Thanks that clears some of it up, but did I read that his latest court case is about AV limiting him to certain funds.
I never understood why they would be taking AV to court while making so much already but could this explain why and is this related to what you are talking about and if they wins would this stop the letting the fund go part from happening. or are these 2 different things.

[eurofox] 08/12/2020 09:18

cjac39,

Thanks for the clarifications, I suspect that uncertainties around that subject have been a drag for some time, unnecessarily so in my view.

[cjac39] 08/12/2020 09:08

Hi wba

Hundreds of millions in provisions apparently. By let it go I mean it’s in a fund along with many other policyholders that could be allowed to fail rather than bringing down av fr but I don’t think that’s likely.

[wba1] 08/12/2020 08:56

cjac39; please do not think I am disagreeing with your general summary (that any impact is reflected in the current price), but having seen the machinations of various CEOs and CFOs when presenting issues (and given the history of Culmer of complicity in the RSA Irish black hole), can you expand a little;

* do you know the level of reserving for the ticket(s). Not precisely, but is it millions, tens of millions or hundreds?

* how could they let it go? There is no further court of appeal (except Europe) and liability is firmly established. What is meant by 'let it go'?

[muscletrade] 08/12/2020 06:35

@jac39, thanks for that.Great advice.

[ianood] 07/12/2020 23:56

cjac39 - Thank you for the info, much appreciated

[karv1] 07/12/2020 22:26

Can AV force a settlement?

[ianguerin] 07/12/2020 22:02

Spud - the trustees of my employer's pension fund have a 1980's GAR policy with an AVC provider. & there's no stipulation to take the annuity at a certain age. It pays a single life level annuity of 9% & I've seen it pay 9.3% for older retirees

[mo123] 07/12/2020 21:00

So does that apply to all the golden tickets?
See L'afer edition letters of note.