Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[123trev] 13/12/2020 12:48

Nobody really understands what a no deal really means and that includes the political elite on both sides so this game of Russian roulette will be one way or another ended for the time being in the current climate the risks are just to great.

[hhhold2] 13/12/2020 12:43

Just going to be another buying opportunity if this drops next week.

[alphorn] 13/12/2020 12:29

"alternative is unpalatable"

It always has been for everyone who has ever been on the negotiating team over the years.

[whatsup32] 13/12/2020 12:26

Relief to hear they’re still talking and will be good to get an agreement but all I see is both sides kicking can down the road as alternative is unpalatable .

[mo123] 13/12/2020 12:17

As talks extended, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Sunday that everything should be done to reach a trade deal between the European Union and Britain.

[dr biotech] 13/12/2020 12:16

Still need to get it done though, which is a problem. For me extending the deadline for 6 months would make a lot of sense so at least by then we should be over the worst of covid. Can’t suddenly see common sense breaking out though and it would hack off a lot of brexiteers.

Ftse futures on IG leapt 40pts then pretty much sank back in a few mins

[karv1] 13/12/2020 11:56

SPUD I think you are right I bet the market will love this news.

[spud] 13/12/2020 11:52

Talks to find a post-Brexit trade deal will "go the extra mile" beyond Sunday's deadline in bid to reach agreement, says EU chief. Prices probably up Monday morning on news imo. spud

[karv1] 13/12/2020 11:25

If we have a no-deal, Monday could be day 1 of the rollercoaster ride with a downwards spiral for half the stock market, while the other half could do fairly well after the shocking day one until we are in the early part of next year. If there is a deal many like me and many others will be desperate to get into anyone at 7.00 am on Monday.

[heialex1] 13/12/2020 10:45

Deal / no deal won't be clear for some days yet... lack of clarity today will certainly lead to weakness of markets and sterling, but no collapse yet. If it does end up as no deal, markets will record one of worst days on record and sterling will drop to parity with the USD.Well done.Although bear in mind, the one thing the charlatans were honest about was their intention to bluff...

[wskill] 13/12/2020 08:45

I am sure a no deal is what the market expected,better to move on and get on with business,it will look like the year 2000 warning of the computer crash in a few years not even a blip on the chart.
I for one will stay invested in stocks far too dangerous to go into bonds and cash ok 10% in cash in case we have a few bargains about.

[123trev] 13/12/2020 08:31

A no deal will hit markets in a bad way tomorrow however I don’t believe that will happen the impact of Covid has been to great to risk further turmoil and both sides bluffs will end in yet another extension the only sensible action to take and the only realistic option now?

[1wenty] 12/12/2020 23:09

Whatever happens with Brexit ,good or bad ,will come as a relief to the market and remove a lot of the uncertainty. Foreign funds have been unweight the UK for a few years so any back up in the market is going to find ready buyers. With the vaccine on its way and the uncertainty removed higher prices will force them in as well. MS,Goldy’s and a few other US houses are already whispering to their clients how cheap UK is to US etc and are negative on the $. I prefer UK ins Co’s to the UK banks at the moment. The UK banks are undoubtedly well capitalised at the moment but with unemployment set to rise to 7.5% if not higher and the government safety straps having to be cut in the months ahead the UK banks impairments are bound to rise quite substantially. They will be a buy but not yet IMO. For my part AV offer outstanding value, a strong AA balance sheet. An investment portfolio that will only suffer the odd scratch compared to the UK banks loan book. a company that will still make £2 /£2.5 bn. even after paying for BIand COVID. a company that has a game plan and a CEO that appears to be putting it into operation. And you get paid a well covered divi of 21p and rising above inflation while you wait for Blanc to execute her plan. You also receive a few wild cards

[cjac39] 12/12/2020 20:47

I don’t have any knowledge of french process unfort. I found someone I know who was involved in aviva France and filled me in on the golden tickets and persuaded me it wasn’t a destructive issue. Aside from that nothing to add.

Re U.K. assets they are still cheap in my opinion and if they are 10-20% cheaper next week then happy days.

Take UKCM as an example. Predominantly logistic and solid prop assets yielding 5-6% with indexation / positive rent reviews trading at 20% discount to nav.

Marry that with more PE capital globally trying to find a home and I think you can rationalise a floor value for U.K. assets

[whatsup32] 12/12/2020 20:39

Cjac . Any thoughts on Macif buying French side and also why would you recommend properties as a buy given post Brexit economy won’t be so rosy .

[cjac39] 12/12/2020 20:14

my central view was always that they'd done a deal some months ago and all this last minute noise was usual political theatre.

seems that may not be correct and it might fall apart. if so, im viewing this as the best chance since march 20 and since jan 09 to buy uk assets you will ever have.

ill start with uk prop cos, add some banks and then finally complete with all my favourite life insurers.

as with covid, its a bit of an unfair transfer from those that havent to those that have but i guess ill add to my charitable donations this year

[whatsup32] 11/12/2020 18:35

I expect regardless of Brexit talks we’ll have a run up until mid January. But. I’m often wrong. Happy to see ask price of €3b. (£2.8Billion) looking achievable and that there are several likely suitors .

[shieldbug] 11/12/2020 18:20

Cyberian - " A soft Brexit would help protect the CITY in negotiations that will follow" agreed, and not just for the city. How we leave the EU at the end of the month matters because it sets the tone for the coming months, which will be critical.

[spud] 11/12/2020 17:16

We’re down about 7% from our recent peak (which indicates to me that there has already been some rinsing of holdings) and a further 12% would drop us to circa 275p which is a recent support.

However, I just don’t think the deal won’t be done further down the track (albeit a fudge).

Just my musings and I have been known to be wrong before!

spud

[whatsup32] 11/12/2020 17:04

7% to 12% is specific numbers. Can I ask how you came up with them ?

Thanks

[spud] 11/12/2020 16:54

7% no deal priced in atm with another 12% worst case scenario to go should the towel be thrown in from both sides. However, this is just too big to fail so expect extended talks possibly into next year imo in order to implement a fudge.

spud