Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[eurofox] 11/12/2020 09:07

.. added 314.6

[barbar7619] 11/12/2020 09:04

Forget all the posts about brexit and time to bail out. It's time to buy and get yourself a cheap share while it's still cheap.

[waterloo01] 11/12/2020 08:44

Reduced a decent amount due to Brexit. Will buy back as soon as it's clear what the damage will be

[p0pper] 11/12/2020 08:44

Can see a horrible end to the day if no Brexit breakthrough comes today, nobody, or a lot of people will not want to hold over the week end with so much uncertainty, no deal and Monday it's tin hats on.

[igoe104] 11/12/2020 08:29

Why do so many brits need the yanks too tell them when to wipe their bottoms ?

[igoe104] 11/12/2020 08:27

Looks like we are waiting for permission from the yanks before we can start going up again. Yanks say jump brits say how high.

[linton5] 11/12/2020 08:23

Kitchen sink at £3 for me anyway

[muscletrade] 11/12/2020 07:03

more movement in the sector albeit in the US.

Zurich Insurance Group AG's subsidiary Farmers Group, Inc. has agreed to acquire MetLife Inc.'s property-and-casualty business in the U.S. with the Farmers Exchanges for $3.94 billion.

The Swiss insurance company said Friday that it will contribute $2.43 billion, while the Farmers Exchanges will contribute $1.51 billion. The purchase price is subject to adjustments, it said.

Zurich Insurance said the acquisition is expected to contribute to its earnings from the first full year after completion and generate a return on investment of around 10% from 2023.

The transaction, which is subject to regulatory approvals, is expected to occur in the second quarter of 2021.

[muscletrade] 11/12/2020 06:42

more movement in the sector albeit in the US.

Zurich Insurance Group AG's subsidiary Farmers Group, Inc. has agreed to acquire MetLife Inc.'s property-and-casualty business in the U.S. with the Farmers Exchanges for $3.94 billion.

The Swiss insurance company said Friday that it will contribute $2.43 billion, while the Farmers Exchanges will contribute $1.51 billion. The purchase price is subject to adjustments, it said.

Zurich Insurance said the acquisition is expected to contribute to its earnings from the first full year after completion and generate a return on investment of around 10% from 2023.

The transaction, which is subject to regulatory approvals, is expected to occur in the second quarter of 2021.

[cjac39] 10/12/2020 20:42

i cant ever see the PRA sanctioning a PE takeover of a systemic insurer like AV. PE would try and lever the inv and anyway even post europe disposals youre still talking a decent ticket size of 5-10bln+. i was involved in various pe based acquisitions of insurers through the 2000s and the then fsa ended up hating them.

what could happen is post divestment a trade buyer comes in but there arent many candidates and wba and i have debated them already. they do have an exceptional franchise in the uk but you have to wonder what the rocs are on post solvency2 life business especially if they delever in the way they are suggesting.

my personal view is it becomes a boring quasi utility stock paying a solid dividend which is fine for me. share price should rerate to an equivalent nearer £4-5 (adjusted for capital returns) and div yld settles in at 6% or so. however thats not my type of investment so i will part company before the end state.

[wba1] 10/12/2020 17:52

I can see no grounds for preventing a takeover of Aviva. There is no lack of competition in the market and no national interest issues. I suspect that even a whiff of such a suggestion on an approach from overseas would trigger immediate legal action.

[jordaggy] 10/12/2020 17:28

I reckon AV will be sold off within 12 months, once the disposals have been done.

[unastubbs] 10/12/2020 17:27

but then would regulators allow aviva to be taken out? we've seen recently a committment from parliament to protect certain segments of the economy from foreign predators (national security and investments bill). i don't believe aviva falls within the ambit of that proposed act, but nevertheless it's the last big british composite insurer and as such is something of a standard bearer.

[wba1] 10/12/2020 17:10

As far as Aviva is concerned the main effect of no deal will be the same as for many other UK companies; it is not about their business (in most cases) or sale of overseas assets, but the effect on foreign bidders for UK assets. I would assume a true no deal (it is not a binary choice, there is a continuum of possibilities) will cause a further 10%+ fall in the pound. That reduces the effective price to foreign bidders of assets priced in pounds. If you were a foreign bidder (insurer or PE) looking at Aviva (rather than just subsidiaries) you would say it already looks cheap, and it will look even cheaper with a 10% discount to current price. It will be like a Black Friday sale for takeovers after a no deal.

[waterloo01] 10/12/2020 17:02

All 3 areas are quite fixable:

Fishing - give them a transition period of 3-5 years

Equivalence - this is the big one as the EU have to move

Which courts - go to international arbitration/WTO.

[cyberian] 10/12/2020 16:57

Heck!!! the bookies usually get it right although I took a nice win and odds this year on the OAKS and The DERBY (money on both to win on the nose), so they can get the odds wrong. The odds here on an each way bet is not worth the punt....although 27 against 1, is maybe worth a fiver, perhaps. My post a bit of fun.... so best wishes for AV.

[mo123] 10/12/2020 16:40

Betting odds flip with no-deal before the end of the year now favourite at 55%, according to Smarkets.

That's still quite close at this stage of the game.

[karv1] 10/12/2020 16:40

In long term it could help the share price with the asset sales, In the short term, it could get messy as insurance companies and banks are normally linked at the hip on up and down days, so AV will most likely be dragged down with the rest. Depends if a no-deal happens and how messy it gets.

[linton5] 10/12/2020 16:38

Britain is miles behind every market in the world hopefully it will have its day in the sun,but when is the $64k question ❓

[cyberian] 10/12/2020 16:36

BJ will be too scared that an EXIT from EU without a deal will be far too risky with uncertainties over Covid-19 which could drag on for many months sadly. The trade deal announced with Singapore by Liz Truss is just a mirror of that already existing with the EU in terms etc., however, it is still good that those terms will transfer to UK after January 1st. Japan was another one so why Ms. Truss looks as though she alone has mastered something that wonderful is an illusion. BJ will be worried sick this weekend but must weigh up the risk of an exit NO DEAL imploding and his reputation in tatters...
(more than it is already).Phil Collins on BBC Newsnight said that he thought that BJ will bottle it (wisely)and strike a deal....maybe a fudge but....The British public have short term expectations and if all looks/goes bad by April then the Tory Party will turn on themselves to protect their seats on a no deal.

[hhhold2] 10/12/2020 16:32

aviva is already very cheap but id be more concerned about the lack of stimulus package in the USA on the overall markets than Brexit.

[cjac39] 10/12/2020 16:31

PRA have announced banks can pay divis again...

[waterloo01] 10/12/2020 16:24

Any thoughts on the effect on the share price by a no deal Brexit?

Sentiment aside, the effect should be fairly limited, not as though people will stop insuring, and more of the business will come to UK based companies, also the sale of EU assets will probably offset the falls in £?

Over simplistic?