Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[alphorn] 11/12/2020 15:56

IMO it would still be 'an unexpected surprise to markets'.

[cyberian] 11/12/2020 15:55

Dr. Biotech...well expressed. BJ up in Blyth this afternoon says that if no deal then he and we should be happy under Australia and WTO terms. First the former is currently trying to negotiate its own deal with the EU, and WTO terms will add at least 5% in cost and time in all the related paper work/regulations needed to be followed. As you imply Dr. the UK DOES NOT have to follow any rule/ environment/labour changes that they choose to make. And on the question of the UK being able to find/fund mega additional sums to help/subsidize the car and farming sector....then add that to all the funds tied-up or used with Covid-19 etc. the Chancellor is already worried about where he can levy taxes to keep the Treasury safe and sound/balanced.

[mo123] 11/12/2020 15:49

Morgan Stanley saying that a big drop is possible. Suspicious of the motive for saying this. Scare tactics to let their clients buy stocks on the cheap?

MS "A no-deal Brexit outcome would represent an unexpected surprise to markets, however the negative impact would be cushioned by an otherwise positive global outlook". Oh really!

[dr biotech] 11/12/2020 15:37

More people worked at Arcadia than in the fishing industry. To lose so much other business over such a small issue is insane. You can bet they’ll take a lot less of our fish too post brexit too.

The stupid thing is the EU are unlikely to make any huge changes that we couldn’t easily follow, and we are unlikely to provide state subsidies to our industries. But common sense is lacking.

[karv1] 11/12/2020 15:27

Thanks wba1

[1robbob] 11/12/2020 15:23

Great analysis cyberian thanks
It is a great shame that the Media, in particular the BBC, don't do the same amount of due diligence. That would greatly enhance the level of Public appreciation and hence the Political debate

[wba1] 11/12/2020 15:21

karv1; no, I agree with cjac that this is already reflected in the price based on the level of reserving cjac states. This smells to me more like the usual Axa games. They are renowned for it. But, to be fair to them, why would they do or say anything else if it helps their negotiating position? I suspect that Blanc has known all along that the Aviva France sale would be the most complicated. My only criticism is that allowing the focus to be on France has increased the pressure on Aviva management to achieve movement. Hence why I suggest they need to progress matters elsewhere. I suspect Blanc expected to do a deal with Allianz/Athora (why give exclusivity otherwise?) but she should have known that Allianz cannot be pushed into paying a penny more than they want to.

[karv1] 11/12/2020 15:19

I think no deal, in the long run, could be the best outcome for the UK. We could become a high-tech low-cost manufacturer with a weak pound. The government could spend hundreds of billions on new tech and green projects, BOE could print a ton of money, and maybe due to the weaker pound.
We could actually get some type of manufacturing sector back and have a surplus trade with other countries over time. instead of the slow death of the UK manufacturing sector. We could grow so much more and the UK has an abundance of resources. It will be painful in the short term if it happens. A positive view.

[alphorn] 11/12/2020 14:58

cyberian - a very clear post.

[cyberian] 11/12/2020 14:55

If you read the statement from EC President Ursula von der Leylen on the BBC site their position appears quite reasonable...she even says that you can have your "sovereignty". If we make rule changes in the EU then the UK is not bound to follow, however, if the UK makes changes to its rules/support with various sectors that result in unfair competition in the EU judgement then they the EU reserves the right to counter such benefit by slapping on a tariff when and where appropriate. On fishing she says that the UK has to respect EU's historical access on negotiated terms/quotas, having built up an industry over many years even centuries!! To cut off the EU fishing industry at a stroke is wrong....a sensible approach can be found. Everyone accepts that the UK has NOT got a fleet ready to take advantage of 200 mile limitation....the EU fleet delivers most of its catch into Lerwick and other UK ports for processing...that market/value could be lost for the UK. Iceland decided years ago that it was easier for them to sell their fishing ground rights to others....like Norway...fishing like coal mining of the old days IS HIGHLY DANGEROUS for the brave people who go to sea. Sorry to post this but I do sense that BJ has got this all wrong and now TODAY he has been denied a request to personally visit Macron and Merkel, shows that they are united in the EU. That was quite a nasty slap in the face and may reveal that BJ has overplayed his hand and ego. The fact that Boris tried to make that call today may show that he is worried/concerned along with dealing with the effect Covid-19 will have next year on the UK population and how soon industry can re-connect/recover. Plus despite that the claim of some here that the "CITY" is so unique that it can hold on to its global reputation and skill...a no deal could make the CITY more vulnerable to other global markets than it thinks. A soft Brexit would help protect the CITY in negotiations that will follow,

[karv1] 11/12/2020 14:46

wba1 Do you think this was AB plan all along knowing that AV France was screwed knowing that AV had losted loads of court cases. If they need hundreds of millions to cover it so far, which will not last forever with the 68% crazy growth rate. So instead sell off the rest of AV france and fold the remaining small section. At the same time sell everything off and pull back to the 3 core locations.
In the UK I think a judge can reverse a financial transaction going back 5 years, I wonder if France has anything similar.

[spcecks] 11/12/2020 14:17

Also added a few and agree with whatsup32.

[whatsup32] 11/12/2020 14:07

1.34 now 1.32 , karv I’m doing same

[karv1] 11/12/2020 14:05

I did wonder if that could happen, I am using the pound v dollar as a guide, people have claimed a possible 10%+ drop if its a no-deal. so far not a lot of movement in the grand scale of things

[whatsup32] 11/12/2020 14:03

I’m going by eurofox buying :)

[ftime] 11/12/2020 13:59

Added a few at 313.4, agree with whatsups comment, hopefully no deal is now priced in!

[whatsup32] 11/12/2020 13:56

I’m going by the fact both sides now say they don’t expect a deal.

[waterloo01] 11/12/2020 13:45

Not sure about being priced in, only a few days ago the consensus was their would be a deal. Guess we'll find out next week.

[whatsup32] 11/12/2020 13:38

Followed eurofox bought a few for her indoors 314.8 ,

Market has in my view priced in no agreement exit as both sides have said unlikely to agree . My view is Monday we should see a rise in the market , but then I bought in at 475p thinking it was a good investment

[wba1] 11/12/2020 12:36

Having taken a closer look at the divestment issues I am now thinking that the Axa interest may be a mixed blessing. On the one hand they have the clout, financial and political, to do a deal. On the other hand, according to various reports, they are interested in parts of the operation rather than a clean sale of the whole, and Les Echos (2 days ago) also included the headline "its sale is complicated by the size of its portfolio of life insurance contracts with a capital guarantee." I know the issue has been done to death on here and accept cjac's reassuring post, but this obviously means that it is an issue or that Axa are playing games (as usual). So I doubt swift progress on the French sale unless another very big player trumps Axa.

In these circumstances it becomes more important for Blanc to make progress with sales elsewhere, to maintain momentum. The easiest sale is probably the stand alone Italian GI company. Not big, but a sale announcement would maintain the forward progress.

[linton5] 11/12/2020 11:31

Aviva always takes you where you don’t want to go,Hava good weekend all

[merry fisher] 11/12/2020 10:59

LINTON5 £3 even if its no deal over the weekend?

[cyberian] 11/12/2020 10:21

Unless someone else has mentioned it but late last night the PRA said that Banks could now re-start paying Dividends thereby withdrawing their earlier message (March?) to suspend them. The PRA added that Banks should of course be prudent in their decision etc.

[barbar7619] 11/12/2020 09:26

The EU will not want us to leave with no deal. I'm confident they will back down.

[karv1] 11/12/2020 09:13

With the government saying there is now a strong possibility of a no-deal. The currency still has not dropped much as is 0.80% down v the dollar at 1.32 and taking into account the pass Quantitative easing the pound is strong, anything could happen on Monday.