Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[heialex1] 09/3/2020 19:25

Maybe, but there will be large fiscal and monetary stimulus over the coming weeks that will boost the markets when the panic is over.If I've learned nothing over the past few years it's that the markets move with the level of stimulus... I'm not saying it's right, but that seems to be what happens

[jeffian] 09/3/2020 19:23

#1130,

Over my dead body!

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2020 19:22

The main issue, well one of the main issues, is US equity market levels.
This has been an extraordinary, parabolic run stateside.

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2020 19:20

Ian, we may be temporarily closing pubs within the next couple of weeks -
now that's something I've never seen!.

[eeza] 09/3/2020 19:12

And then they go up 20p and you think 'if it comes down 10p I'll buy'. And it goes up another 20p.

It's too late, Ethel.

[lord gnome] 09/3/2020 18:57

Probably now, Alphorn - although the thought that they might be cheaper still tomorrow prevents me from committing.

[alphorn] 09/3/2020 18:54

True, the $64K question is when.

[jeffian] 09/3/2020 18:47

I have managed my own investments since 1972, so I've seen a few ups and downs, and the one thing I do know is that whether this turns out to be a shortish-term market 'correction' or turns into a full-blown bear market, there will be a point in the future when you cannot believe you were able to buy at these prices.

[dround87] 09/3/2020 17:34

Diversify. Drip feed. Best strategy.

[creme de menthe] 09/3/2020 17:12

A manager on Bloomberg saying this decline could go on for some weeks, interspersed with big one day rises. Ultimately I see a 2 month decline as US finally accepts recession ahead.
A ftse drop from 7700 to 5000 is possible, indeed probable. Sorry to all those who think this will be a U shaped rebound but I think not.

[eeza] 09/3/2020 16:52

Read the post above, 1122.

[cordwainer] 09/3/2020 16:50

how to judge the time to be greedy when others are most fearful ?

[uppompeii] 09/3/2020 16:48

Or you miss the recovery? I havent got the numbers to hand but isnt it the case that the biggest gains are a short period after the bottom. Appreciate it depends on your objectives ,but I'm holding on as I take income and being out would compromise that, though I am 20% or so cash but that was more luck than judgement .

[crossing_the_rubicon] 09/3/2020 16:41

Nope, but there is a good chance it might...

Spring will merely delay the inevitable come fall/winter.

This is coming in 3 phases I fear.

The start now. An intermission.
Back with a vengeance in Winter 2020.

The economic impact of supply chain chaos though will be brutal I fear.

Hope I am wrong.but it pays to simply prepare for the worst.
If such doesn't come to pass, what have you lost. If it does, you're ahead of the game.

[cordwainer] 09/3/2020 16:37

..your saying the virus has actually Crossed_the_Rubicon (quite literally too) and isn't turning back.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 09/3/2020 16:28

@Essential,

Spot on - It's the infectiousness "RO of 4-7" and the asymptomatic nature that has Govts scared yes.

That and the suspicion that China woefully unreported the death rate.

It's all about delaying the hit to the health system,...drag it out, delay , give NHS time to treat those most in need.

A healthcare swamped is the worst case scenario. Fatality rate soars. For all the sick,not just the elderly.

And what is going on in Iran??? A youthful demographic getting hit hard as well!

[essentialinvestor] 09/3/2020 16:25

Can understand comments like the above, however what may be worth factoring in is
coronovirus is new. And it appears highly transmissible.
That is what has governments scared imv, national heath systems becoming overwhelmed. Italy look to be about 2 weeks ahead of the UK, very approx.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 09/3/2020 16:22

@Wind

Talking of Scotland, they did themselves proud yesterday beating Les Bleus.

Scots have a habit of ruining grand slammers.

[cordwainer] 09/3/2020 16:17

By comparison, LGEN recovering a bit from the days lows, whereas AV. is not.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 09/3/2020 14:53

China locks down 750 million people.

Italy locks down 16 million...

And some still think this is comparable to the annual flu!

Amazingly complacent.

[nick rubens] 09/3/2020 14:52

cheers zho and W1NDJAMMER.

Mkts in freefall and news headlines of lock downs over COVID-19 almost seems like I'm watching an apocalyptic sci movie, except it's real.

[lako42] 09/3/2020 13:38

It's very tempting at this but I still feel we have a way to go.

[cassini] 09/3/2020 13:28

Within a few pennies of a 10% yield now.