Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 06/6/2022 11:59

Today's opening was spectacular. Not sure what it was all about but here is a one minute chart of the opening.

AHT 1 MINUTE

[disc0dave45] 30/5/2022 23:55

fenners - no problem. Looks decent value IMO and like their recent retail partnership with B&Q.

[fenners66] 30/5/2022 21:01

Thanks disco - I will take a look...

[disc0dave45] 30/5/2022 11:19

Finals from SDY look decent (apart from debt!):Revenue +16.3% to £381.7m,Adjusted operating profit +50.2% to £32.6m,Adjusted profit before tax +72% to £30.1m,Adjusted earnings per share +58.2% to 4.24p,Dividend +57.1% to 2.2p,Net debt has more than doubled from £33.2m to £67.5m.

[bracke] 27/5/2022 18:46

fenners

As I posted in 60869 the danger is profit taking.

[fenners66] 27/5/2022 17:54

Thanks bracke.
It looked at the time like a significant moment.
By now the move is significant for anyone who bought down there,
we are approaching the finals 15th or so of June so perhaps a little strength is
warranted.

[bracke] 27/5/2022 11:45

Good day fenners

The candle you refer to is a hammer and also a doji.

Hammer

The significance of this particular hammer is the long lower shadow. It indicates that there was strong support at the low end and buying which took the share price up to the opening share price (i.e. bullish reversal). Such hammers are usually followed by more buying which takes the share price further up.

doji

The share price opens and closes at the same level or very close to it.


Following the candle the share price gapped up the next day and has continued the rise BUT although the candle indicated support it wasn't particularly strong. What would indicate strength is a candle with a long lower shadow and the closing share price well above the opening share price

The share price has broken out of the 37-40 range. We now wait to see if profit taking drops it back into the range or buyers take it further up to consolidate the rise.

[fenners66] 26/5/2022 18:05

Bracke - if I may ask what is the significance of that hammer shaped candle on the chart about 6 days ago ?

[disc0dave45] 26/5/2022 17:58

US GDP Q1 confirmed at -1.5%....but consumers still spending and jobless claims edge lower.

[disc0dave45] 25/5/2022 16:49

Mr bThanks for your thoughts post 60869.

[disc0dave45] 25/5/2022 16:46

PerfidoThanks, not too fussed about the divi tbh, just a bit of fun guessing what it might be.

[bracke] 25/5/2022 16:33

I am corrected.

I compared 'apples with pears'.

I have corrected my post and new final div is 47p !!!

[perfido] 25/5/2022 16:13

Good afternoon disc0,

I like your logic.

However I am not one to speculate, and all should be clearer when the Q4 results are revealed on 22nd June.

More importantly, when will AHT re-attain its former heady share price? Answers on a postcard?

[disc0dave45] 25/5/2022 14:36

The 16% was average div growth, last year it was only 3.7%, it has been 20%-22% in prior years.HTTPS://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/a/ashtead-group-plc-ordinary-10p/dividends

[disc0dave45] 25/5/2022 12:28

Good dayPerfido - you beat me to it!Their total div (annual plus interim) has for the past 3 years or so been about 15% of their FY eps (normalised). So say 250p eps this FY gives a total div of only 38p, with fenners addition for BB of 12p gives 50p (a final of circa 41p).Checked the last 4 years div growth and it's 16%, which would give 49p, so the 50p total would be my guess :)

[perfido] 25/5/2022 12:19

Re post 60866

I believe the last interim dividend was 12.5 cents (9.3p) not 12.5p ?
.
source:

(Post 60866 has subsequently been corrected 👍)

[bracke] 25/5/2022 11:55

The chart shows the share price currently basing in the 37-40 range (50% fib). It attempted to do the same at 45 (38.2% fib) and the share price rose to 49 before dropping back to and straight through 45.

It's likely that shareholders who were inclined to sell have done so and those who remain will continue to hold. The danger comes when buying increases, the share price rises and profit taking occurs which drops the share price back to 37 and maybe lower. This has occurred a few times during the fall.

AHT DAILY

[bracke] 25/5/2022 11:36

Good day fenners

I agree 61p highly unlikely. Your 52p only slightly less unlikely.

Probably more like 38p.

[fenners66] 24/5/2022 21:03

Good day bracke
well 61p would make me a lot happier - but I will not hold my breath
there has always been a conservative approach to the ratio of dividends to earnings...

[bracke] 24/5/2022 18:41

Good day fenners

I looked at it slightly differently.

Last interim was 12.5p

Previous to last interim was 7.15p INCORRECT THIS IS US CENTS SHOULD BE 9.3P

Increase = 5.35p = 74.8% THUS CORRECT INCREASE = 3.2p = 34.4%

Last final was 35p

'Great Expectations' final 35p + 34.4% = 47p

EDIT

12.5 and 7.15 were the wrong way round. My apologies for any confusion caused.

[fenners66] 24/5/2022 18:20

Just read the latest RNS re buybacks and the share capital is down to 443m from the last calc used by ADVFN of 477m
So that translates to over 12p per share earnings uplift , based on the last year's earnings which paid out 40p a share in dividends.

In theory this year's EPS should be a lot better.
Growth in markets
Growth through acquisition
Growth in translation to GBP

Now add 12p from reduction in shares and I am expecting that better than 12p increase in dividend should accrue to shareholders.
After all 12p a share costs no more than last years and if that cannot be paid out as a starting point for this years uplift , then buybacks get us nothing.
Last final 35p +12p + say 5p should get us to 52p final dividend.
Will the market take note then ?

[disc0dave45] 23/5/2022 13:10

US GDP Update this week, should be interesting!

[hamhamham1] 19/5/2022 19:17

Life's too short, stop the hating.