Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 12/4/2022 11:48

Good day disc0

So pleased you got the 'point'.

Given the number of times that the share price has dropped to my blue line I have no doubt it will do so again. The question is when; now or some time in the future. Looking at the price action does suggest now is a fair probability.

I note this morning the share price did drop to 4487 before rising to yesterdays close. On 6 April it dropped to a low of 4489 so it tested that level today.

It will be interesting to see how the markets perform in the run up to the Easter holiday period commencing Friday (also OPEX). The Ukraine situation and what Mr Putin may do during the holiday period may cause extra caution.

[disc0dave45] 11/4/2022 18:40

Good day (or not!) Mr bI'm assuming you meant an RSI of 45.86.Looking on the daily it's 35.8 and it dipped below 30 in Jan, so as you say looks like it's getting close to bottom.....I hope!.

[bracke] 11/4/2022 15:47

Something to consider.

Below is the monthly chart which includes the RSI complete with blue horizontal line at 4586 which is drawn at a number of the lows. Look back along the chart at the price action after the blue line was reached.

When to buy a falling share price is never an easy decision so it's worth looking for indicators which may assist. There is no guarantee that the blue line will be reached or that it may fall further but it probably indicates that the low is close.

AHT MONTHLY

[bracke] 10/4/2022 13:36

Good day disc0

"Only after their nuts, the hound loves them! :)"
================================================

But they are very small. I presume the hound considers them a delicacy.

[perfido] 10/4/2022 12:18

Hi disc0,

Thank you for your comments, and sharing your views :-)

Edit:
In principle I don’t mind posting when I deal, but the lack of perspective can be misleading.

Currently my purchases are relatively small, I’m not betting the farm, and I have no wish to mislead other less experienced investors than yourself..

As I have previously mentioned I am only seeking to supplement my residual AHT core holding using the well known pound cost averaging technique to even out price flucuations, and therefore I would submit my dealings are not necessarily relevant or of interest to most other investors.

Instead I would recommend that they read the postings of yourself and the other more knowledgeable posters on this board, really a positive mine of useful information...
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[disc0dave45] 09/4/2022 19:56

Mr b'Squirrel chasing.....hmmmm sounds like a blood sport.'Only after their nuts, the hound loves them! :)

[disc0dave45] 09/4/2022 19:55

perfidoI welcome the fact that you've posted your trades, useful to know that a long term holder thinks there's value, as do I. Trust you enough to know it's not, nor would it ever be, a cheap ramp like so many posters on this site who must be billionaires the amount they keep saying "just topped up", blah blah blah, lol.Never going to do anything based on what anybody says or does, so no issues there, but as I said comforting to know.

[perfido] 08/4/2022 17:53

Well, after showing early promise which largely evaporated in the weekend closing @ 4679, my latest modest purchase @ 4674.9 at least kept its head above water and Rome was not built in a day...

Hoping to make more progress in the coming weeks, but having fulfilled my promise, I think posting my transactions is an unneccessary distraction to those of the more serious technically adept posters on this thread, who have a different investment horizon, so I am now minded to keep my own counsel henceforth.

In any event, good luck to all :-)
.

[bracke] 08/4/2022 16:17

disc0

Brokers targets. 'When' indeed.

Squirrel chasing.....hmmmm sounds like a blood sport.

[disc0dave45] 08/4/2022 15:27

PsBroker consensus target price is £64 (just checked).As ever that's when?, I'm assuming it's for the next 12m and given they (AHT) have said this FY (to end April) will be "slightly ahead" i also assume when confirmed (June) that brokers will uplift their share price forecasts?.

[disc0dave45] 08/4/2022 15:17

Mr bWouldn't disagree about dividends. Don't think 60-65 in 18+ months is too unrealistic tbh.Time to chase squirrels:)

[bracke] 08/4/2022 14:55

disc0

£50 short term would; once the share price breaks above the primary down trend line; be close to the first likely resistance zone on the chart. I will be surprised if £60-£65 is reached in the short to mid term but I have been surprised by AHT previously.

Perhaps if the dividend was raised to reflect the increase in interest rates your expectations may have a better chance.

[disc0dave45] 08/4/2022 14:28

Good day Mr b,Would have to check notes but think I had at least £50 short term (this FY eps 250p minimum) then with 10%-20% growth next FY up to £60. However, given this has already got a tad ahead of itself then wouldn't be surprised to see new highs (65+). On a personal level circa 30% capital gain over about 18 months. Definitely not here as an income play!, but this generally beats forecasts and IMO is a quality business that deserves a higher than average rating, i believe given its gross margin (76% 5yr average - perhaps fenners can confirm?) that pricing power will mitigate inflationary concerns (I'm hoping!).

[bracke] 08/4/2022 14:03

disc0

I presume (always dangerous) that your interest in purchasing AHT shares is not based on the dividend but on share price increase i.e. capital gain.

Looking at the metrics the share price appears to be fairly if not well rated which suggests the current share price is about correct. Barring the FED pumping large amounts of cash into the system which appears very unlikely at this time what are your expectations?

[disc0dave45] 08/4/2022 12:11

Thanks Mr bUS CPI data next week so think I'll sit on my hands here (and elsewhere) until then and see how the market reacts.

[bracke] 08/4/2022 11:56

Good day disc0


A good open with a slight gap up and..........just about breaching the aquamarine trend line. Too soon to get overexcited but so far so good. There are likely resistance zones ahead the first being the primary down trend line.

I've removed the shorter timeframe fib. The chart shows that the share price reacts more to the longer time frame fibs and the s/r zones I identified.

We know that the FED will be increasing interest rates quite aggressively and reducing the balance sheet how the markets will react is unknown.

AHT DAILY

[ianwwwhite] 08/4/2022 11:45

Thanks disc0, let's hope fortune favours the brave :-)

[disc0dave45] 08/4/2022 10:58

Perfido All the best with your purchase today.Was thinking the same but not as brave.

[perfido] 08/4/2022 10:20

In a weak moment I promised to tell when I dealt again in AHT, although this does leave me a bit exposed :-)

As part of my AHT pound cost averaging plan, I bought a few more AHT shares at 4674.89p this morning, to increase my stake.

However I am not sure whether AHTs price fall is over, and so please do not regard this as a recommendation for others to follow.

Instead, wish me luck?
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[disc0dave45] 07/4/2022 18:42

Good day Mr b

‘Did the hound get a hug? Maybe not a gleeful one, perhaps just a pat.’

Did get him a nice marrow bone from a friendly local butcher, he / she wasn’t called Pat :)

[bracke] 07/4/2022 17:54

Good day disc0

Did the hound get a hug? Maybe not a gleeful one, perhaps just a pat.

An up day. Slightly above average volume and a tight range. Too soon to say the trend has turned but at least not another down day.

[perfido] 06/4/2022 21:54

At 8.50 pm GMT:
DOW -144.67 (-0.4%)
URI -16.75 (-4.9%)
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[perfido] 06/4/2022 21:48

New York Times:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fed minutes showed ‘many’ officials in favor of a big rate increase.
Notes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, at which it raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point, showed officials gearing up to pull back economic support more as they attempt to tame inflation.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting showed that central bankers were preparing to shrink their portfolio of bond holdings imminently while raising interest rates “expeditiously,” two policies that will make money more expensive to borrow and spend.

The Fed is trying to cool down a hot economy, hoping to tame inflation, which is running at the fastest pace in four decades.

Central bankers raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in March, their first increase since 2018 — and the minutes showed that “many” officials would have preferred an even bigger rate increase and were stalled only by uncertainty tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Markets now expect the Fed to make half-point increases in May and possibly June, even as they begin to withdraw additional support from the economy by shrinking their balance sheet.

The balance sheet stands at nearly $9 trillion — swollen by their pandemic response policies — and Fed officials plan to shrink it by allowing some of their government-backed bond holdings to expire. That will push up longer-term interest rates, helping to make mortgages and other types of borrowing pricier. Higher rates could temper consumption and business investment, leading to slower growth, more muted hiring, and weaker wage increases. Eventually, the chain reaction should help to lower price increases.

Fed officials “expected it would be appropriate to begin this process at a coming meeting, possibly as soon as in May,” the minutes showed.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
source & more :
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[bracke] 06/4/2022 17:57

I presume you will be watching the market reaction to the FED Minutes at 6.00pm GMT.

[bracke] 06/4/2022 17:56

You've been reading Great Expectations haven't you.

How many 'years down the line' are you thinking?